In the second estimate for the 2019 harvest, the output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was estimated at 231.1 million metric tons, 1.7% above the 2018harvest, whereas the area to be harvested was 62.0 million hectares, 1.9% bigger than in the current harvest. The increase resulted, mainly, from the bigger output estimates for corn (86.9 million metric tons in 16.9 million hectares) and cottonseed (3.1 million metric tons). There was decline of output estimates for soybeans (117.7 million metric tons, 35.4 million hectares), rice (11.2 million metric tons, 1.7 million hectares) and beans (2.9 million metric tons, 3.0 million hectares).

The 11th estimate for the 2018 harvest amounts to 227.3 million metric tons, 5.5% below that of 2017 (240.6 million metric tons). The area to be harvested (60.9 million hectares) is 282.3 thousand hectares mil hectares smaller than in 2017. Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, and, together, make up 93.1% of the output estimate and account for 87.2% of the area to be harvested.

Against figures in 2017, there was increase of 3.0% in the soybean area and decreases of 8.7% and 7.6% in the area of corn and rice crops, respectively. As for output, there were decreases of 17.8% for corn, of 5.6% for rice and increase of 2.6% for soybean.

By area, the 11th estimate for the 2018 harvest points to the folloeing distribution in the output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds: Central West (101.6 million); South (74.9 million); Southeast (22.8 million); Northeast (19.1 million) and North (8.7 million). In comparison with the previous harvest, there was increase only in the Northeast Regio (7.9%) and decreases in the other ones: South (-10.8%), Southeast (-4.4%), Central West (-3.8%), North (-1.7%). Mato Grosso is the leader as the main producer, with a share of 26.8%, followed by Paraná (15.4%) and Rio Grande do Sul (14.8%).

For 2019, second estimate points to a harvest 1.7% bigger than in 2018

In this second estimate, the output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2019 was estimated at 231.1 million metric tons, with an increase of 1.7% in relation to the previous year. That means a total 3.8 million metric tons. The increase was mainly due to bigger output estimates for corn (5.1 million metric tons) and cottonseed (166.4 thousand metric tons), since there was decline of output estimates for soybeans (236.1 thousand metric tons), rice (533.5 thousand metric tons) and beans (38.6 thousand metric tons).

The analysis of the five most relevant products for the coming harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds, three are expected to present negative changes in output, in comparison with the previous year: rice (4.5%), soybeans (0.2%) and beans (1.3%), whereas, cottonseed and corn grain are expected to have an increase of 5.5% and 6.2%, respectively. With reference to the expected area, there were positive changes in upland cottonseed (15.9%,) soybean grain (1.5%), bean seed (0.7%) and corn grain (3.4%). Paddy rice recorded a negative change of 4.6%.

Figures were added to the projections obtained from information in previous years, for the Federation Units for which initial estimates are not available. Once this prospect is based on calculated projections, field data represent 81.0%% of the expected national output, whereas the prejections account for 19.0% of the estimated total.

UPLAND COTTONSEED – The second prospect for te 2019 corn crop indicates an output of 5.2 million metric tons, with an increase of 5.5% in comparison with the 2018 harvest. Planted area, 1.3 milion hectares, recordes an increase of 15.9%. In 2019, the good prices of the product may encourage producers to invest in crops and increase planted ares. Mato Grosso estimated an output of 3.6 million metric tons, with an increase of 13.7% in relation to the 2018 harvest, and will account, in this state alone, for 69.5% of the national output.

PADDY RICE – The second estimate for the national harvest in 2019 points to an output of 11.2 million metric tons. Santa Catarina, the secons main producer in the country, has an estimated output of 1.12 million metric tons. Rio Grande do Sul, the biggest rice producer in Brazil must account for 71.2% of the amount harvested in 2019. The output of Rio Grande do Sul was estimated at 8.0 million metric tons. In the Central West, the estimated output of Mato Grosso is 466.7 thousand metric tons, with a decrease of 7.1% against the previous year. In Goiás, estimates indicate an output of 111.0 thousand metric tons, with a decline of 18.1% and, in Mato Grosso do Sul, of 66.9 thousand metric tons, with a decrease of 12.7%. In the Northeast Region, Maranhão and Piauí output estimates pointed to 186.3 and 94.3 thousand metric tons, 16.8% and 13.8% less than in the previous year. In the Noh Region, Tocantins estimated an output of 614.1 thousand metric tons, with a decline of 3.9% against the previous year. Pará, with 104.1 thousand metric tons, Roraima, with 54.5 thousand metric tons and Rondônia, with 119.1 thousand metric tons, complete the group of most prominent states in terms of rice production. 

BEAN SEED – The second output estimate for the 2019 harvest of beans is 2.9 million metric tons, with a decrease of 1.3% in relation to the 2018 harvest. Beans – 1^st crop is expected to produce 1.4 million metric tons; 2nd crop, 1.1 million metric tons, and 3^rd crop, 468.1 thousand metric tons. The area to be harvested in the summer (1st crop) must be similar to that of 2018, that is, 1.7 million hectares, whereas the average yield is expected to record a decrease of 7.1%, and stay at 812 kg/ha. The expected output of beans in the summer harvest is 8.0% smaller than that obtained in the same period in 2018. The planting areas for beans 2^nd and 3^rd crop depend on prices in effect and on the expectations regarding climate, once those crops are affected by hydric conditions.

CORN (grain) – The second prospect for corn grain indicated an output of 86.9 million metric tons, with an increase of 6.2%, or 5.1 million metric tons. For corn 1st crop, the  estimate is 25.7 million metric tons, 1.2% more than in the 1st estimate, but 0.6% below the result of the same period in 2018. Although current prices are higher than at the time of planting of the 1st crop in the previous year, producers may not increase investments; soybeans may be a priority due to a bigger profitability. Considering corn 2nd crop, the estimate is 61.2 million metric tons, with an increase of 5.1% in comparison with data from the 1st Prospect (55.4 million metric tons) and 9.3% in relation to 2018. In the 2018 harvest, some important states in terms of corn production faced climate problems, as a result of the limited "planting window" following the late start of planting of summer crops. In the 2019 harvest, a bigger "planting window" is expected for corn 2nd crop, once, in some producing states, the rainy season started sooner than expected. 

SOYBEAN – The second output estimate for 2019 amounts to 117.7 million metric tons, with an increase of 1.0% in relation to the 1st crop, in October, and a decline of 0.2% against the 2018 figure. The area to be planted is 35.4 million hectares, that is, 0.4% bigger. The estimated average yield is 3,323 kg/ha, 1.6% less than in 2018, as a result of climate changes. In the summer harvest of 2018, there was abundance and regularity of rainfall in the main producing states, where there was a record output, and, therefore, a high basis for comparison. 

In the Central West Region, Mato Grosso, which is expected to account for 27.0% of the national output in 2019, estimates indicate 31.8 million metric tons, with an increase of 0.6% in relation to 2018. Goiás, with 10.9 million metric tons, has an estimated decrease of 4.7% in output, whereas Mato Grosso do Sul, with 10.2 million metric toins, had an estimated increase of 3.6%. In the South Region, Paraná, the second main producer, and responsible for 16.8% of the national production, estimates an output of 19.8 million metric tons, that is, 2.9% more than in 2018. Rio Grande do Sul, third main producer, estimates a toatl 18.6 million metric tons, with an increase of 5.8% . For Santa Catarina, the estimated output is 2.3 million metric tons, with a decline of 0.8%. In the Southeast Region, Minas Gerais, with 5.4 million metric tons, is expected to record an increase of 0.1%, whereas in São Paulo,  the production estimate is 3.1 million metric tons,10.2% less. 

In the Northeast Region, the highlights were Bahia, Maranhão and Piauí, states which, together with Tocantins (North Region), form the so-called “MATOPIBA”, an area of accelerated agricultural expansion as a result of the opening of new lanting areas in the Cerrado biome. Bahia, with 4.9 million metric tons, estimated a decrease of 20.8%. Maranhão, which has an estimated output of 3.0 million metric tons, recorded an increase of 10.6% against 2018, whereas Piauí, with 1.9 million metric tons, points to a decline of 23.7%. In the North Region, the highlights were Tocantins, Rondônia and Pará, with estimates of 2.5, 0.9 and 1.8 million metric tons, respectively. Summer planting started sooner in some states. The rainy season of 2018 started earlier and got more intense in the second half of October, as producers took this opportunity to start planting, as there were proper conditions due to adequate soil moisture.

Highlights in November 2018 against October figures

In November, the highlights were changes in the following estimates, against October: cashew nut (4.0%), tomato (3.4%), coffea arabica (2.5%), beans 3rd crop (1.6%), sugarcane (0.4%), corn 2nd crop (0.4%), upland cotton (0.2%), soybean (0.2%), bean 2nd crop (0.2%), corn 1st crop (-0.1%), coffea canephora (-0.5%), bean 1st crop (-1.0%), oat (-1.3%), wheat (-2.2%), sorghum (-2.9%) and barley (-9.2%).

In terms of absolute change, the positive highlights were: sugarcane (2,512,285 metric tons), corn 2nd crop (197,864 metric tons), soybean (189,675 metric tons), tomato (47,377 metric tons), coffea arabica (64 726 metric tons), bean 3rd crop (6 920 metric tons) and cashew nut (4 942 metric tons). The negative impacts were: wheat (126,379 metric tons), cor 1st crop (36,170 t), beans 1st crop (15,229 metric tons) and coffea canephora (4.180 metric tons).

UPLAND COTTONSEED – Against the previous month, the production of cotton increased by 0.2%. For Goiás and Minas Gerais, there are estimated increases of 8.4% and 0.9% in output, respectively. The changes refer to regular adjustment observed in the closing of the series. The production of cotton amounted to 4.9 million metric tons, with an increase of 28.6% in relation to the average yield of 3.9%. Good prices, as a rsult of the increase of international demand, more use of technology by producers and a favorite climate in Bahia and in Mato Grosso, the main producing states in the country, preceeded the excellent harvest of the current year. These states, together, accounted for 89.7% of the output.  

COFFEE BEAN – The Brazilian output of coffee this year was one more record in the IBGE time series. The overall national output was 3.6 million metric tons or 59.6 million 60 kg bags, with an increase of 1.7% against the previous year. For coffea arabica, the estimated output was 2.7 million metric tons or 44.8 million 60 kg bags, meaning an increase of 2.5% against the previous month. In November, Minas Gerais reevaluated its output estimates, pointing to an increase of 3.5% in the total amount to be harvested. The output of Minas Gerais is expected to reach 1.9 million metric tons, or 31.4 million 60 kg bags. The state is the main producer in the country, with a participation of 70.2% of the amount produced.

Against the previous year, the production of coffea arabica recorded an increase of 28.2%. The excellent harvest resulted from the positive biennial results, from the rainy weather in the main producing areas and from the bigger investments made by producers. The estimated output of coffea canephora, 888.6 thousand metric tons, or 14.8 million 60 kg bags, is 0.5% below that of last month.  

In November, there was decrease of output in Rondônia (1.2%) and Minas Gerais (12.3%).  Against the previous year, the output of coffea canephora recorded a decrease of 30.4%, and the most significant increases were those of Espírito Santo (53.0%) and Bahia (15.7%). The output of these states has recovered in the last few years, after having recorded a decrease due to a long period of drought.

SUGARCANE – The estimated national output, of 675.4 million metric tons, recorded a decrease of 0.4% against that in the previous year. In Alagoas, there was increase of 11.1% in the output estimate, and the expected output is 17.2 million metric tons, whereas, in Minas Gerais, there was decrease of 1.8%. Important producing areas in the state of São Paulo were affected by the dry period that reduced that activity by 2.5%. As a result, due to their low profitability, producers ended up not reforming their crops at the proper time, and there may be decline of productivity as a result of the aging of sugarcane crops.

CASHEW NUT – The output estimate was 129.3 thousand metric tons, having recorded an increase of 4.0%, against that in the previous year.  Ceará, the main national producer, estimated an output of 9 thousand metric tons, with an increase of 8.5% against October, having accounted for 54.8% of the total to be produced in the country in 2018. Piauí is the second main producer, having estimated an output of 25.2 thousand metric tons, whereas Rio Grande do Norte is the third one, with an estimated output of 18.3 thousand metric tons. Piauí and Rio Grande do Norte recorded, respectively, decreases of 2.1% and 1.5% in the output estimate against the previous month. These three states account for 88.4% of the national output. In relation to the previous year, the output estimate if 3.9% smaller.

WINTER CEREALS (GRAIN) – The estimated output of wheat is 5.7 million metric tons, with a decline of 2.2% against the previous month. For Paraná, the main national producers, the estimated output is 2.8 million metric tons, which represents 49.6% of the total. These crops are in the end of harvesting and the products have a variable quality. For Rio Grande do Sul, the second main producer in the country, was estimated at 2.1 million metric tons, representing 37.0% of the national output. The estimate in 2018 is 34.0% bigger in comparison with that of 2017, when climate conditions affected the production of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná. The estimated output of oats was 928.0 thousand metric tons, with a decline of 1.3%% against the previous month. For barley, the  estimated output is 353.3 thousand metric tons, with a decrease of 9.2% versus that of 2017.

BEAN SEED – The amount harvest was 3.0 million metric tons, 0.2% smaller than in the previous month. In relation to the previous month, the national production of beans recorded a decrease of 9.8%. Bean 1st crop was estimated at approximately 1.5 million metric tons, with decline of 1.0% (15,229 metric tons) against the October estimate.  A highlight was Paraíba, which recorded a decrease of output by 24.2% (7,117 metric tons). Minas Gerais also reduced output by 6,642 metric tons, and that meant 3.5% of the first estimate for the state, related to the decrease of planted area (2.5%). In relation to the previous year, the output of 1^st crop beans was reduced by 2.6%. The production of corn 2nd crop was estimated to increase by 0.2% (1,554 metric tons), in comparison with the October estimate.

Goiás increased its harvest estimate of beans 2nd crop by 13.2%. In Minas Gerais, there was decline of 0.3% in output estimate. In relation to the previous year, the output of beans fell by 15.6%. The biggest decreases, against the previous year, were observed in Paraná (19.6%) and Minas Gerais (14.1%). The decrease of planted area resulted from the worse prices at the time of planting. For corn 3rd crop, output is expected to increase by 1.6% against the previous estimate. Goiás was the state the state with the biggest influence on the result, once estimates recorded an increase of 2.4% in average yield. Minas Gerais indicates an increase of 1.9% in the output estimate, with the same change in planted area. In relation to the previous year, there was a decrease of 17.9%.

CORN (grain) – Against October, the estimated output increased by 161.,7 thousand metric tons. Nevertheless, against the previous year, the output estimate is 17.8% smaller. Corn 1st has been harvested and the output was 25.9 million metric tons, an output 16.7% smaller in relation to the previous year. Little rewarding prices at the time of planting motivated producers to expand planting areas for soybeans instead of corn. In the current month, Maranhão and Piauí adjusted their data. For Maranhão, there was decline of 0.9% in output. For Piauí, there was decrease of 1.1% in output. In most Federation Units, there was delay in planting of corn 2nd crop, once the harvest of summer crops was also delayed. As a result, the crops were more exposed to periods of drought, which are common at the end of the rainy season, mainly in the Central South area of Brazil. The production was estimated at 56.0 million metric tons. The monthly change indicates an increase of 0.4% in the output estimate. The positive adjustments were mainly influenced by the performance of Goiás, which recorded an increase of 2.9% in the output estimate. In Maranhão, there was an increase of 0.7% in the output estimate. In relation to the previous year, the output of corn 2^nd crop is 18.2% smaller.

SOYBEAN – This month, the highlight was the production in Goiás, which recorded an increase of 1.4% (160.9 thousand metric tons) in comparison with the October result. The output of soybeans in 2018 reached a record figure in the time series. The total output was 117.9 million metric tons, an increase of 2.6% in relation to 2017. There was delay of the rainy season, at the time of summer crops planting, but after the start of the season, production grew in most producing areas, except in the South, where the cycle did not occur, thus reducing the productivity of crops nd, consequently, leading to the decrease of output (4.5%). 

SORGHUM GRAIN – The output estimate reached 2.0 million metric tons, with a decrease of 2.9% against the previous month. In Goiás, the main national producer, with a share of 44.9% of the total produced in the country, there decrease of the estimate by 6.2%. in relation to the previous year, the production of sorghum was 5.4% than in 2018. Planted in the 2^nd crop of the Central West Region, which is responsible for 55.6% of the national production, usually after the “planting window”  of corn 2nd crop, the expansion of the area plated with sorghum depends on positive expectations as for climate, for, although sorghum is more resistant against droughts than corn, the early “dry period” in the Cerrado has affected productivity and, as a consequence, the production of the cereal.

TOMATO – The production of tomato is expected to reach 4.4 million metric tons, with an increase of 3.4% against October. In November, the output of Goiânia was reevaluated, with increase of 10.5%. Against 2017, the output estimate for tomato recorded an increase of 1.2 %