GDP grows 0.8% and reaches R$1.716 trillion in Q3 2018

November 30, 2018 09h00 AM | Last Updated: December 03, 2018 03h05 PM

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the Gross Domestic Product - GDP grew 0.8% between the second and third quarters of 2018. It increased 1.3% over the third quarter of 2017. The cumulative GDP in the four quarters ended in the third quarter of 2018 rose 1.4% over the immediately previous four quarters. Concerning the cumulative rate in the year, the GDP grew 1.1% in relation to the same period in 2017.  At current values, the GDP reached R$1.716 trillion in the third quarter of 2018, being R$1.464 trillion relative to Value added at basic prices and R$252.2 billion to Product taxes net of subsidies. 
The investment rate was 16.9% and the savings rate, 14.9%.

Comparison period Indicators (%)
GDP AGRIC INDUS SERV GFCF CONS. HHOLDS CONS. GOV
Quarter / immediately previous quarter (with seasonal adjustment) 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 6.6 0.6 0.3
Quarter / same quarter previous year (without seasonal adjustment) 1.3 2.5 0.8 1.2 7.8 1.4 0.3
Cumulative in four quarters / same period previous year (without seasonal adjustment) 1.4 0.4 1.3 1.5 4.3 2.3 0.2
Current values in quarter (R$ billion) 1716.2 61.9 331.6 1070.5 289.2 1105.8 323.7
Investment rate (GFCF/GDP) Q3 2018 = 16.9%
Savings rate (SAVINGS/GDP) Q3 2018 = 14.9%

The support material of the Quarterly Accounts is on the right side of this page.

Main results of the GDP at market prices of Q3 2017 to Q3 2018
Rates (%) 2017.III 2017.IV 2018.I 2018.II 2018.III
Cumulative in the year / same period in the previous year 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1
Last four quarters / four immediately previous quarters -0.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4
Quarter / same quarter in the previous year 1.4 2.2 1.2 0.9 1.3
Quarter / immediately previous quarter (with seasonal adjustment) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Contas Nacionais

GDP grows 0.8% in relation to previous quarter

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the GDP grew 0.8% in the comparison between the third quarter of 2018 and the second quarter. Agriculture rose 0.7%, Industry increased 0.4% and Services, 0.5%.

Among the industrial activities, Manufacturing industries rose 0.8%. Both Mining and quarrying industries and Construction registered a positive change of 0.7%. The only drop was in Electricity and gas, water, sewage and activities of waste management (-1.1%).

In Services, all the sectors recorded positive figures: Transportation, storage and mailing (2.6%); Trade (1.1%); Real estate activities (1.0%); Financial activities, insurance and related services (0.4%); Information and communication (0.2%); Other services activities (0.2%); and Public administration, health and education, and social security (0.1%).

GDP grows 1.3% compared with same quarter in 2017

Compared with the same period in 2017, the GDP rose 1.3% in the third quarter of 2018. The Value Added at basic prices increased 1.3% and the Product Taxes less Subsidies, 1.3%.

Among the activities that contributed to the generation of the Value Added, Agriculture rose 2.5% in relation to the same period last year. This result can be mainly explained by the growth and productivity gain of coffee (26.6%) and upland cotton (28.4%).

Industry posted a positive change of 0.8%. Manufacturing industries increased 1.6%. This result was mainly influenced by the increased manufacture of vehicles; petroleum products and biofuels; pulp and paper; machinery and equipment; pharmaceutical industry and fabricated metal products.

Mining and quarrying industries expanded 0.7% over the third quarter of 2017, leveraged by the rise in the extraction of ferrous minerals. The activity of Electricity and gas, water, sewage and waste management activities, on its turn, posted a positive change of 0.5%. On the other hand, Construction dropped (-1.0%), being the 18th consecutive drop in this comparison.

The value added of Services expanded 1.2% in relation to the same period in 2017, highlighted by the growth in Real estate activities (3.2%), followed by Transportation, storage and mailing (2.9%). Trade (1.6%), Information and communication (1.1%), Financial activities, insurance and related services (1.0%), Other services activities (0.6%) and Administration, defense, public health and education, and social security (0.1%) also rose.

Under the point of view of expenditure, Household consumption expenditure registered a positive figure for the sixth quarter in a row: growth of 1.4%. This result was influenced by the circumstances of some macroeconomic indicators along the quarter, like the lower interest rate, access to credit and an improvement in the labor market compared with the third quarter of 2017.

Gross fixed capital formation recorded a positive change of 7.8% in the third quarter of 2018. The magnitude of this advance was justified by the incorporation of goods destined to the oil and gas industry, as a result of changes in the REPETRO regime.

In the foreign sector, Exports of goods and services grew 2.6%, while Imports of goods and services increased 13.5% in the third quarter of 2018.


GDP accrues increase of 1.1% in the year

The cumulative GDP in the year up to the third quarter of 2018 rose 1.1% in relation to the same period in 2017. In this comparison, Agriculture recorded a negative change of 0.3%, whereas Industry (0.9%) and Services (1.4%) increased.

The industrial activities with positive results in the cumulative index in the year were Manufacturing industries (2.3%) and Electricity and gas, water, sewage and waste management activities (1.5%). Mining and quarrying industries posted a null change and only Construction (-2.6%) retreated.

In Services, Real estate activities (3.0%); Trade (2.8%); Transportation, storage and mailing (2.3%); Other services activities (0.9%) and Administration, defense, public health and education, and social security (0.3%) rose. The only negative result was in Information and communication (-0.4%).

In the analysis of the domestic demand and considering the cumulative in the year up to September 2018, Gross fixed capital formation and Household consumption expenditure grew 4.5% and 2.0%, respectively. Government consumption expenditure changed 0.3%. In the foreign sector, Imports of goods and services expanded 9.4%, whereas Exports of goods and services rose 1.5%.

In the cumulative index in four months, GDP grows 1.4%.

The cumulative GDP over the four months ending in September 2018 rose 1.4% in relation to the four immediately previous quarters.  The rate was the result of rises in Value added at basic prices (1.3%) and Product taxes net of subsidies (2.1%). The rise of Value Added in this type of comparison reflected the performance of the following segments: Agriculture (0.4%), Industry (1.3%) and Services (1.5%).

Under the point of view of expenditure, Gross fixed capital formation increased 4.3% and Household consumption expenditure, 2.3%. Government consumption expenditure positively changed 0.2%. It was the first time that all the components of the domestic demand registered positive figures since the second quarter of 2014. In the foreign sector, Exports of goods and services (3.3%) and Imports of goods and services (9.1%) increased.

GDP adds up to R$1.7 trillion at current values

The GDP reached R$1.716 trillion in the third quarter of 2018, being R$1.464 trillion relative to Value added at basic prices and R$252.2 billion to Product taxes net of subsidies.

The investment rate in the third quarter of 2018 was 16.9% of the GDP, which represented an increase in relation to that reported in the same period a year ago (15.4%). The savings rate was 14.9% in the third quarter of 2018, not representing any change in the comparison with the same period in 2017.

Revision of the time series of the Quarterly Accounts

When releasing the third quarter each year, the Quarterly National Accounts makes a comprehensive revision, incorporating the new weights of the Annual National Accounts from two years before, as well as updates the time series adopted and, whether necessary, performs methodological improvements. The details of the main points reviewed can be found in the complete publication of the Quarterly Accounts.

Table I.1 shows the 2017 revision of the GDP growth rates and its main components under the point of view of supply and demand.

Table I.1 - Revision of the annual growth rates - 2017
  Before (%) After (%) Diff p.p.
Agriculture 13.0 12.5 -0.5
Industry 0.0 -0.5 -0.5
Services 0.3 0.5 0.2
GDP 1.0 1.1 0.1
Household consumption expenditure 1.0 1.4 0.4
Government consumption expenditure -0.6 -0.9 -0.3
Gross fixed capital formation -1.8 -2.5 -0.7
Exports of goods and services 5.2 5.2 0.0
Imports of goods and services (-) 5.0 5.0 0.0
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Contas Nacionais

Table I.2 shows, for the first and second quarter of 2018, the revision of the growth rates of the GDP and its main components under the point of view of supply and demand.

Table I.2 - Revision of the growth rates of quarter against same quarter previous year
   Q1 2018 Q2 2018 
Before (%) After (%) Before (%) After (%) 
Agriculture -2.6 -3.0 -0.4 0.3
Industry 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.8
Services 1.5 1.8 1.2 1.1
GDP 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9
Household consumption expenditure 2.8 2.9 1.7 1.8
Government consumption expenditure -0.8 0.7 0.1 -0.3
Gross fixed capital formation 3.5 2.6 3.7 3.0
Exports of goods and services 6.0 5.3 -2.9 -2.9
Imports of goods and services (-) 7.7 7.8 6.8 6.5
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Contas Nacionais