The prices of the overall industry changed -0.84% in October, a figure below that in September (2.91%). This was the first negative result since July 2017 (-1.01%). In this same comparison, eight out of the 24 activities recorded positive changes of prices, against 20 last month. The result had been 1.80% in October 2017. The cumulative index in the year reached 13.04% and, in 12 months, 15.12%.
The support material is on the right side.

Between September and October this year, the prices of the mining and manufacturing industries – overall industry – changed -0.84%, a figure below that reported in the comparison between August and September 2018. This was the first negative result since July 2017 (-1.01%).

The four biggest changes reported in the comparison between October and September 2018 were among products of the following industrial activities: tobacco (-6.62%), other transportation equipment (-5.84%), wood (-4.44%) and printing (-4.31%).

In terms of influence, in this same type of comparison, the highlights were food products
(-0.36 p.p.), basic metals (-0.27 p.p.), oil refining and ethanol products (0.20 p.p.) and other transportation equipment (-0.14 p.p.).

The cumulative index in the year – October 2018 against December 2017 – hit 13.04%, against 14.00% in September 2018. Among the activities that registered the highest percentage changes in October this year, the highlights were: mining and quarrying industries (38.47%), other chemicals (29.55%),oil refining and ethanol products (26.92%) and basic metals (15.17%).

The sector that mostly influenced this indicator were: oil refining and ethanol products (3.08 p.p.), other chemicals (2.84 p.p.), mining and quarrying industries (1.50 p.p.) and food products (1.31 p.p.).

The cumulative rate over 12 months – October 2018 against October 2017 – changed 15.12%, against 18.17% in September 2018. The rate reported in September 2018 was the highest in the time series, followed by those of August 2018 (16.54%), July 2018 (15.89%) and October 2018. The four highest price changes in October 2018 against October 2017 took place in mining and quarrying industries (40.19%), oil refining and ethanol products (35.50%), other chemicals (33.24%) and basic metals (19.18%). The most influential sectors in this indicator were: oil refining and ethanol products (3.87 p.p.), other chemicals (3.17 p.p.), mining and quarrying industries (1.58 p.p.) and basic metals (1.51 p.p.).

Among the major economic categories, the change of -0.84% was distributed as it follows: -2.46% in capital goods; -0.84%% in intermediate goods; and -0.41% in consumer goods, with 0.79% in durable consumer goods and-0.78% in semi and non-durable consumer goods.

From the result of the overall industry, -0.84%, the influence of the major economic categories was the following: -0.20 p.p. from capital goods, -0.50 p.p. from intermediate goods and -0.13 p.p. from consumer goods. In the case of consumer goods, -0.19 p.p. was due to price changes observed in semi and non-durable consumer goods and 0.06 p.p. in durable consumer goods.

As to the cumulative index over the year (current month against December last year), price changes of industry reached, untilOctober, a change of 13.04%, with 8.29% of change in capital goods  (with an influence of 0.71 p.p.), 18.66%% of intermediate goods (10.63 p.p.) and 4.95% of consumer goods (1.71 p.p.). In the latter, the result was influenced at 0.45 p.p. by durable consumer goods and 1.25 p.p., by semi and non-durable consumer goods.

In the annual rate – October 2018 against October 2017 –, the price change in industry reached 15.12% in October, with the following changes: capital goods 10.66% (0.91 p.p.); intermediate goods, 21.68% (12.26 p.p.); and consumer goods, 5.58% (1.95 p.p.), being the influence of durable consumer goods of 0.50 p.p. and that of semi and non-durable consumer goods, of 1.45 p.p.

The following sectors stood out in the results:

Mining and quarrying industries: in October, the prices of this sector retreated (-2.24%) over the previous month. The cumulative rate in the year stayed at 38.47%. On the other hand, the indicator that compares the current month with the same month last year stood at 40.19%. In terms of the influence on the changes reported for the overall industry, the cumulative index in the year and in 12 months contributed with 1.50 p.p. in 13.04% and 1.58 p.p. in 15.12%, respectively.

Food products: in October, the prices of this sector changed -1.99%, the fourth highest negative change in the time series, being the last one in July 2017 (-2.08%). In the year, the October´s rate was the fourth negative one. This sector accrues a positive change along 10 months in 2018 (6.87%), lower than in September (9.04%) and in the opposite direction of that reported in October 2017, when the cumulative index in October was -7.43%. Compared with October 2017, the prices were 7.04% higher (in September, they were 10.18% higher).

In the month-over-month comparison, only the product "frozen beef" stood out, both in terms of change and influence. "Residue of soybean oil extraction", "fresh or chilled beef" and "concentrated orange juice" were the other products of high influence (they accounted for -1.57 p.p. in -1.99%). The valuation of Real – around 8.0% – in October lies on the price of the four products. In the case of beef, more cattle were supplied to the cold stores in October, whilst facing a cooled demand in the domestic market.

Besides being the biggest contribution among all the activities surveyed, this sector was the biggest influence in module (-0.36 p.p. in -0.84%) in the monthly change and the fourth one (1.31 p.p. in 13.04%) in the cumulative index in the year.

Oil refining and ethanol products: the change in the products of this sector was of 1.57% in October, lower than that reported in September (7.43%), though higher than that in August (0.14%). With the increase in October, the cumulative index in the year hit 26.92%, which was not only the highest rate for October, but the highest rate ever seen in this type of comparison. Compared with the same month a year ago, the rate retreated from 37.70% (September) to 35.50% (October). All the changes since May 2018 were above 30% (37.16%, on average).

They were the same products listed as highlights in terms of change and influence. The only negative change in the prices was noticed in "motor gasoline", the second product in terms of weight (around 15.0%) in this sector – the first one is "diesel fuel and other fuel oils", with more than 50.0%.

This sector stood out as it registered the third highest price change (26.92%) in the cumulative index in the year; the second (35.50%), in the annual rate; the third influence (0.20 p.p. in -0.84%), in M/M-1; and the second both in the cumulative rate in the year (3.08 p.p. in 13.04%) and in M/M-12 (3.87 p.p. in 15.12%).

Other chemicals: the chemical industry recorded an average change in prices of 0.63% in October over September, the lowest change since December 2017 (0.10%) and completing 14 consecutive months of price rises. As a result, the cumulative index in the year positively changed 29.55% – the highest one for October since the beginning of the time series in 2010 – and the cumulative rate in the last 12 months changed 33.24%, above October 2017, when the cumulative index in the year had been 5.17% and in 12 months, 5.97%.

The results were linked with foreign prices, costs of the imported raw material, prices of petroleum products, especially naphtha, and to the valuation of the dollar in relation to the real, which reached -8.4% in the month, 14.2% in the year and 17.8% in 12 months. Of the 32 products investigated in this sector, 18 increased their prices in October against 29 in September, which explained the change from 4.25% in September to 0.63% in October.

Concerning the four products that mostly influenced, three of them registered positive figures: "unsaturated ethylene (ethane), "styrene-butadiene rubber" and "unsaturated propene (propylene)"; only "polypropylene (PP)" reported a negative figure. Concerning the cumulative rate in the year and in the last 12 months, all the products posted positive results and matched each other: "NPK-based manure or fertilizers", "unsaturated ethylene (ethane)", "herbicides for agricultural use" and "polypropylene (PP)".

Basic metals: the prices dropped -3.19% between September and October, the first negative change since January 2018 (-0.06%) and the most intense since June 2015 (-3.56%).

Even with this result, the activity accrued a change of 15.17% in the year and, in the last 12 months, of 19.18%. Between December 2013 (base of the time series) and October 2018, the prices of this sector registered a cumulative change of 50.25%.

Among the four products that recorded the highest price changes, considering month over previous month, cumulative rate in the year and cumulative index in the last 12 months, only the product "stainless steel coil or sheet, including strips" reported all the results positively. For the products "unwrought aluminum alloy", "copper and copper alloys bars, profiles and rebars" and "carbon steel ingots, blocks, rods or plates", the changes in the month were negative, mostly due to the devaluation of the Dollar over the Real (8.4%). These products were those that mostly influenced the negative figures of this activity in October against September. The four products in highlight influenced -3.21 p.p. the overall change, i.e., the influence of the other 18 products was of 0.02 p.p.

Other transportation equipment: the prices changed negatively (-5.84%) in relation to September. The last negative change in the prices of this activity was in January 2018. The cumulative index in year reached 12.54%. In the comparison of the last 12 months (October 2018 against October 2017), this activity changed 15.37%.

In terms of influence, the month-over-month indicator recorded -0.14 p.p. over the monthly change of the overall industry (-0.84%). The cumulative rates in the year and in 12 months contributed with 0.29 p.p. in 13.04% and 0.35 p.p. in 15.12% of the overall changes, respectively.