Industrial output falls 1.8% in September

November 01, 2018 09h00 AM | Last Updated: November 05, 2018 02h28 PM

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the national industrial output retreated (-1.8%) in September 2018 against August, representing the third consecutive negative rate and accruing a reduction of 2.7% in this period. In the seasonally-unadjusted series, the industry dropped 2.0% compared with September 2017, the first negative figure in this comparison after three consecutive rises.

 

September 2018 /August 2018 -1.8%
September 2018 / September 2017 -2.0%
Cumulative in 2018 1.9%
Cumulative in 12 months 2.7%
Quarterly Moving Average -0.9%

The cumulative indexes in the year (1.9%) and over the last 12 months (2.7%) remained positive, though the sector lost some pace compared with previous months.
The complete publication of the Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM-PF) can be accessed on the right side.

Industrial Output - Major Economic Categories - Brazil - September 2018     
Major Economic Categories Change (%)
 September 2018/August 2018*  September 2018/September 2017  Cumulative January-September  Cumulative in the Last 12 Months
 Capital Goods  -1.3  3.9  8.5  9.2
Intermediate Goods -1.0 -2.6 1.0 1.7
Consumer Goods -1.5 -2.0 2.4 3.2
Durable -5.5 -4.5 11.6 13.1
Semi-durable and Non-durable -0.7 -1.4 0.1 0.8
Overall Industry -1.8 -2.0 1.9 2.7
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria   *Seasonally-adjusted series 

Sixteen of 26 industrial sectors retreat

The decline of 1.8% in industry between August and September 2018 registered negative rates in the four major economic categories and in 16 out of the 26 sectors surveyed. Among the activities, the most relevant negative influences came from motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-5.1%), machinery and equipment (-10.3%) and beverages (-9.6%). Considering these results, the first sector retreated once again, after advancing 2.2% in the previous month; the second one interrupted three consecutive months of growth, a period in which it grew 10.3%; and the last declined for the third month in a row and accrued a loss of 19.2% in this period.

Other important negative contributions to the overall industry came from food products (-1.3%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-1.5%), pharmochemicals and pharmaceuticals (-5.7%), other chemicals (-1.6%) and pulp, paper and paper products (-2.4%). Having advanced 5.4% after recording a negative change of 0.2% last August, basic metals was the most relevant for the global average among the nine sectors that increased the output this month.

Having declined 5.5%, durable consumer goods posted the steepest drop in September 2018, influenced, at a great extent, by the reduced manufacture of cars. This segment remained predominantly dropping and accrued a loss of -6.4% since July. The sectors of capital goods (-1.3%), intermediate goods (-1.0%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods
(-0.7%) also retreated, though less intensely than the national average (-1.8%). Considering these results, the first sector offset part of the rise of 5.5% registered in the previous month; the second accrued a reduction of 3.4% in two consecutive months of drop; and the last recorded the third negative figure in a row, accruing a drop of -2.2% in the period.

Quarterly moving average declines 0.9%

Still in the seasonally-adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the whole industry recorded a decline of 0.9% in the quarter ended in September 2018 compared with the level reached in the previous month, thus interrupting the upward trend started in May 2018. Still in relation to the marginal movement of this index, durable consumer goods (-2.1%) posted the most intense negative result in September 2018, after advancing 8.5% last August.

The sectors of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.7%), intermediate goods (-0.6%) and capital goods (-0.5%) also retreated, the first reversing the positive behavior since last June; the second interrupting the upward trend started in May 2018; and the third declining once again after increasing 7.3% in the previous month.

Industry retreats 2.0% in relation to September 2017

Compared with the same month a year ago, the industrial sector retreated 2.0% in September 2018, showing negative results in three out of the four major economic categories, 13 out of the 26 sectors, 43 out of the 79 groups and 52.4% of the 805 products. It is worth mentioning that September 2018 (19 days) had one less business day than the same month in the previous year (20). 

Among the activities, the major negative impact in the industry was registered by food products (-11.8%), pressed, at a great extent, by the reduced manufacture of crystallized and VHP sugar, concentrated orange juice, frozen poultry and giblets, and animal food. It is also worth highlighting that the negative contributions recorded by the sectors of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-4.6%), beverages (-12.2%), manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (-8.2%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-8.3%), machinery and equipment (-3.6%) and furniture (-9.4%).

Among the 13 sectors that increased their output, still considering the comparison with September 2017, basic metals (9.0%), pharmochemicals and pharmaceuticals (22.9%) and motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (3.9%) exerted the major positive influences on the average industry.

Other relevant positive contributions came from pulp, paper and paper products (6.8%), other chemicals (2.1%) and fabricated metal products (4.1%).

Still in relation to September 2017, durable consumer goods (-4.5%) and intermediate goods (-2.6%) posted the most intense retreats among the major economic categories. The segment of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-1.4%) also declined, though less intensively than the overall average (-2.0%). The only rise came from capital goods (3.9%).

The segment of durable consumer goods retreated 4.5% in September 2018 compared with the same period last year, thus interrupting three consecutive months of rising production: June (14.6%), July (17.0%) and August (9.8%). This month, the segment was particularly pressed by the reduced manufacture of cars (-2.6%) and brown goods (-14.7%). Furniture (-11.6%) and white goods (-1.0%) also declined. On the other hand, the most important positive impacts came from motorcycles (4.8%) and other house appliances (0.8%).

Having retreated 2.6% in the monthly index of September 2018, the output of intermediate goods interrupted three months of consecutive positive rates: June (2.1%), July (3.8%) and August (0.9%). This month´s result was mainly explained by the declines in the activities of food products (-21.8%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-4.6%), textiles (-4.9%), machinery and equipment (-2.5%) and rubber and plastic products (-0.6%), whereas the positive pressure came from basic metals (9.0%), pulp, paper and paper products (7.9%), fabricated metal products (5.0%), other chemicals (2.1%), non-metallic mineral products (1.1%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (1.0%) and mining and quarrying industries (0.2%).

Still in this economic category, it is also worth mentioning the positive results coming from typical inputs for civil construction (1.0%), which marked the fourth consecutive month of growth, and from packaging (3.9%), which marked the fourth consecutive advance in this type of comparison, though the less intense in this series.

Still in relation to the same month of 2017, the segment of semi and non-durable consumer goods retreated 1.4% in September 2018, the second consecutive negative rate and more intense than that in the previous month (-0.6%). The performance this month was mainly explained by the drop in the group of food and beverages for domestic consumption (-3.1%), pressed, at a great extent, by the reduced manufacture of concentrated orange juice, frozen poultry and giblets, beer, draft beer, soft drinks and wine. It is also worth mentioning the negative figures registered by the sub-sectors of fuels (-4.5%) and semi-durable (-3.7%).

Conversely, the group of non-durable (6.8%) recorded the only positive rate in this category, mainly leveraged by the expansion in the production of medicines and promotional material.

The sector producing capital goods expanded 3.9% in the monthly index of September 2018, the fourth consecutive positive in a row, though the less intense in this series. This segment was influenced, at a great extent, by the advance in the group of capital goods for transportation equipment (14.9%), mainly leveraged by the increasing manufacture of trucks, trailers and semi-trailers, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers and airplanes.

The other positive rates were capital goods for construction (10.0%), for agriculture (5.6%) and for electricity (3.2%). On the other hand, the negative impacts were registered by the groups of capital goods for industrial use (-9.3%) and for mixed use (-0.8%).

Industry advances 1.2% in Q3 2018

Having advanced 1.2% in the third quarter of 2018, the industrial sector maintained the positive behavior since the first quarter of 2017 (1.5%), though it lost pace when comparing the results of the first (2.8%) and second quarters this year (1.7%), all the comparisons against the same period a year ago.

The reduced growth of the industrial output was also reported in three out of the four major economic categories, highlighted by durable consumer goods, which changed from 11.3% in the second quarter to 7.1% in the third one. The sectors of capital goods (from 7.8% to 6.8%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (from 0.6% to -0.2%) also decreased between these two periods, whereas the segment of intermediate goods (from 0.6% to 0.7%) was the only one to record a gain.

Industry accrues 1.9% in 2018

Considering the cumulative index for January-September 2018 against the same period last year, the industrial sector expanded 1.9%, registering positive figures in the four major economic categories, 16 out of the 26 sectors, 43 out of the 79 groups and 51.8% of the 805 products.

Among the activities, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (16.5%) exerted the biggest positive influence on the industry average, leveraged, at a great extent, by items cars, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, trucks, trailers and semi-trailers, and car pieces.

Other relevant positive contributions came from basic metals (5.5%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (1.9%), pulp, paper and paper products (5.8%), machinery and equipment (4.5%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (8.0%), pharmochemicals and pharmaceuticals (4.5%) and rubber and plastic products (2.4%). Among the ten activities that reduced their output, that of food products (-3.9%) posted the biggest negative contribution to the whole industry. It is also worth highlighting the negative figures coming from the sectors of manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (-3.7%) and leather, traveling articles and footwear (-4.3%).

Among the major categories, the 2018 results showed more dynamism for durable consumer goods (11.6%) and capital goods (8.5%), leveraged, at a great extent, by cars (15.2%) and brown goods (11.1%), in the former; and capital goods for transportation equipment (16.4%), in the latter.

The sectors of intermediate goods (1.0%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (0.1%) also accrued positive rates in the year, though below the national average (1.9%).