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In September, IBGE forecasts harvest 6% smaller than in 2017

October 11, 2018 09h00 AM | Last Updated: October 15, 2018 04h00 PM

The ninth estimate for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2018 added up to 226.2 million tonnes, 6.0% below that obtained in 2017 (240.6 million tonnes), representing a reduction of 14.4 million tonnes. The estimate of the area to be harvested was 61.0 million hectares, a drop of 220.6 thousand hectares (-0.4%) against the harvested area in 2017 and a retreat of 60,779 hectares (0.1%) over August.

September's estimate for 2018 226.2 million tonnes
2018 harvest / 2017 harvest change -6.0% (-14.4 million tonnes)
Change September 2018 /August 2018 0.2% (394.3 thousand tonnes)

Altogether, rice, corn and soybeans were 92.8% of the production estimate and 87.0% of the area to be harvested. The area for soybeans increased 2.7% and the area for corn and rice reduced 8.4% and 7.6%, respectively, in relation to 2017. Concerning the output, a drop of 18.6% for corn, 5.7% for rice and an increase of 2.0% for soybeans were estimated.

More 394.3 thousand tonnes (0.2%) were produced over August, leveraged by the revision in the output of soybeans, which led to an increase of 488 thousand tonnes (0.4%).

Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso was the leader as the main national producer of grains, with a share of 26.9%, followed by Paraná (15.7%) and Rio Grande do Sul (14.8%), which, together, represented 57.4% of the national overall. The support material of the LSPA is on the right side of this page.

Among the Major Regions, the output was distributed as follows: Central-West (99.8 million tonnes), South (75.3 million tonnes), Southeast (23.2 million tonnes), Northeast (19.2 million tonnes) and North (8.7 million tonnes). Compared with the previous harvest, the Northeast Region increased 7.7%, whereas the Central-West Region decreased 5.8%, the South Region, 10.4%, the Southeast Region, 3.2% and the North Region, 2.4%.

September´s estimate in relation to August 2018

In September, the following changes in the production estimates stood out over August: potatoes - 3rd crop (25.2%), oat (5.7%), corn - 1st crop (1.4%), soybeans (0.4%), wheat (-0.5%), corn - 2nd crop (-0.6%), beans - 2nd crop (-1.2%), barley (-1.9%), sugarcane (-2.0%), tomatoes (-2.7%), potatoes - 2nd crop (-6.1%) and beans - 3rd crop (-8.4%). In the absolute changes, the positive highlights came from soybeans (487,679 t), corn - 1st crop (359,615 t), potatoes - 3rd crop (199,270 t) and oat (50,280 t). The negative highlights came from sugarcane (13,895,057 t), corn - 2nd crop (356,291 t),  tomatoes (118,866 t), potatoes - 2nd crop (74,015 t), beans - 3rd crop (42,815 t), wheat (30,004 t), beans - 2nd crop (13,887 t) and barley (7,648 t).

POTATOES - Estimate of 3.9 million tonnes, an increase of 3.1% over August. São Paulo reassessed the output of the crops – increase of 26.4% and a total of 917.8 thousand tonnes – and confirmed the rise of 29.3% in the planted area and in the area to be harvested (total of 29.8 thousand hectares). The first crop had already been harvested, producing 1.8 million tonnes (-0.4% over August). 1.1 million tonnes were estimated for the second crop (-6.1% over August), in which São Paulo (-2.7%), Paraná (-17.9%) and Santa Catarina (-10.3%) were the biggest declines. Altogether, these states accounted for more than 50.0% of the potatoes harvested in this season. The output of the second crop was 7.0% smaller than in 2017, in which the planted area and the area to be harvested reduced by 5.6%. For the third crop, the production reached 989.6 thousand tonnes, an increase of 25.2% over August. The output in the third crop was 8.2% smaller than in 2017, in which the planted area dropped 6.1% and the average yield, 2.2%.

SUGARCANE - The Brazilian production was estimated at 672.9 million tonnes, representing a decrease of 2.0% over August. As the biggest producer and processor in Brazil, São Paulo had its share estimated at 53.3% of the total to be harvested, which represented declines of 3.4% in the output and of 3.8% in the area to be harvested. A drop of 2.2% in the production was estimated in relation to 2017. Drought influenced the drop in the productivity by 2.5%. The lack of investment in the crops and the rise of the production costs have limited the output and supply of sugarcane to the plants. The oversupply of sugar in the foreign market, due to the good harvest in India, took the plants to channel more sugarcane for the production of alcohol, which had also its prices reduced due to the oversupply during the harvest season.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) - Due to the retraction of 2.1% in the average yield, the estimated production of wheat was of 5.9 million tonnes, 0.5% smaller than the previous month. As the major Brazilian producer, Paraná estimated an output of 3.0 million tonnes (51.2% of the national production). The output and average yield fell 4.1% and 5.5%, respectively, over August, due to the lack of rainfall. As the second major Brazilian producer, Rio Grande do SUl estimated an output of 2.1 million tonnes (35.4% of the national production). Not so compelling prices, low liquidity and climate problems have been affecting the production of wheat in Brazil. Nevertheless, the estimated output for 2018 was 37.9% higher than the 2017 harvest, a season in which the adverse climate jeopardized the production in Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná. The production estimate of oat was of 940.1 thousand tonnes, representing an increase of 5.7% in relation to the previous month. The area to be harvested increased 7.5%, having reached 420.1 thousand hectares. Concerning barley, the production was estimated at 385 thousand tonnes, a decrease of 1.9% over the previous year.

BEANS (seed) - The harvest was estimated at 3.2 million tonnes, 2.0% smaller than that of the previous month, with a decline of 0.9% in the average yield. The biggest reductions over the previous month were reported in Acre (9.8%), Pará (8.4%), Alagoas (14.1%), Sergipe (79.0%), São Paulo (12.7%) and Santa Catarina (5.8%). Yet, the amount was sufficient for the domestic supply.

The first crop of beans was estimated at 1.6 million tonnes (-0.4% over August). Having virtually completed the harvest, the drops took place mainly in Pará (7.1%) and Santa Catarina (7.1%). Thesecond crop of beans was estimated at 1.1 million tonnes (-1.2% over August). Altogether, less 13.9 thousand tonnes were estimated between August and September. The biggest retractions were registered in Acre (10.4%), Pará (9.4%), Alagoas (14.2%), Sergipe (78.9%), São Paulo (5.7%) and Santa Catarina (2.3%).

The estimate of the output of the third crop of beans was of 469.1 thousand tonnes (-8.4% smaller than in August). In São Paulo, the output retreated 37.0% and the area to be harvested and average yield fell 33.8% and 4.7%, respectively. Prices not so rewarding due to the productions costs have been discouraging the producers to plant during this season.

CORN (grain) - The production estimate changed positively in only 3,324 tonnes in relation to August. The production estimate was 18.6% lower than last year and the average yield and harvested area retracted 11.2% and 8.4%, respectively. Having produced 99.5 million tonnes in 2017, producers of corn in Brazil established a record in the IBGE´s time series.

Having produced 26.3 million tonnes, the first crophad already been harvested, representing an increase of 1.4%, due to the increasing rise in São Paulo (16.4% or 373,948 t). The harvested area and average yield in São Paulo were revised with rises of 12.0% and 4.0%, respectively. Rio Grande do Sul also reported a growth in the production estimate of corn - 1st crop: 0.8% or 38,370 tonnes. The output of corn - 1st crop was 15.3% smaller than in 2017. Prices not so rewarding during the planting season influenced the producers to improve the areas destined to soybeans rather than corn.

A good number of Federation Units delayed the planting of corn - 2nd crop, due to the delay in harvesting the summer harvest and to rainfall, which hampered machinery traffic, mostly in the Center-South of Brazil. The output was estimated at 54.7 million tonnes in 11.4 million hectares. In site of the increase of 0.3% in the average yield, the production retracted 0.6% over August. The negative adjustments were mostly influenced by São Paulo (19.0% or 461,300 t), Sergipe (65.2% or 322,992 t) and Alagoas (18.9% or 7,568 t). Mato Grosso registered an increase in the production estimate (2.4%), average yield (1.7%) and harvested area (0.7%). Producing 25.9 million tonnes, Mato Grosso accounted for 47.3% of the total corn harvested in this season in Brazil. The output of the second crop was 20.1% smaller than in 2017, due to the delay in planting the summer season and the resulting risk of droughts. Furthermore, the production of corn was a record in several states in 2017. 

SOYBEANS (grain) - The Brazilian production of soybeans in the 2018 harvest was one more record in the IBGE´s time series. As a whole, Brazil harvested 117.3 million tonnes, an increase of 2.0% over the previous year. Despite the late rainfall, only the South Region reduced its output (4.5%). In the Central-West and Southeast Regions and in “Matopiba” (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia), rainfall favored the crops.

TOMATOES - The Brazilian production of tomatoes should stay at 4.2 million tonnes (-2.7% over August). The Brazilian output was concentrated in Goiás (32.2% of share in the national overall), São Paulo (19.1%), Minas Gerais (17.6%) and Espírito Santo (4.1%). In September, the biggest declines in the production estimates were reported in São Paulo (12.4%), Alagoas (22.6%), Mato Grosso (4.4%) and Ceará (1.5%). The production of tomatoes reduced 3.0% in relation to 2017, reflecting the retraction of 3.5% in the area to be harvested, despite the slight increase of 0.6% in the average yield.

September estimate in relation to the production of 2017

Of the 26 products surveyed, the output of 13 of them recorded a positive change over 2017:

Product 2017 production (t) 2018 production (t) Change (%)
Upland cottonseed                    3,838,785                    4,803,446 25.1
Peanuts - 1st crop                       531,280                       541,604 1.9
Peanuts - 2nd crop                           9,898                         11,598 17.2
Rice                   12,452,662                   11,737,392 -5.7
Oat                       609,130                       940,148 54.3
Potatoes - 1st crop                    1,968,761                    1,778,541 -9.7
Potatoes - 2nd crop                    1,233,004                    1,147,197 -7.0
Potatoes - 3rd crop                    1,078,032                       989,640 -8.2
Cacao                       214,348                       235,203 9.7
Coffea arabica                    2,095,275                    2,584,796 23.4
Coffea canephora                       681,346                       858,816 26.0
Sugarcane                 687,809,933                 672,857,493 -2.2
Onions                    1,719,412                    1,547,295 -10.0
Barley                       286,405                       384,985 34.4
Beans - 1st crop                    1,561,956                    1,581,892 1.3
Berans - 2nd crop                    1,185,542                    1,135,574 -4.2
Benas - 3rd crop                       543,814                       469,121 -13.7
Oranges                   18,666,928                   17,100,402 -8.4
Castor beans                         11,834                         24,503 107.1
Cassava                   20,606,037                   19,929,598 -3.3
Corn - 1st crop                   31,064,540                   26,310,836 -15.3
Corn - 2nd crop                   68,481,488                   54,711,233 -20.1
Soybeans                 114,982,993                 117,255,703 2.0
Sorghum                    2,147,706                    2,100,606 -2.2
Wheat                    4,241,602                    5,849,671 37.9
Triticale                         41,940                         45,442 8.4

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production - LSPA is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions - COMEAs and/or Regional Commissions - COREAs. The latter are consolidated at state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups - GCEAs and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics - CEPAGRO. This Commission is formed by representatives from the IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply - MAPA.

The surveys relative to cereals (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), legumes (peanuts and beans) and oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in March 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.