IPCA changes 0.48% in September

October 05, 2018 09h00 AM | Last Updated: October 16, 2018 04h36 PM

The Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) in September changed by 0.48%, above the -0.09% recorded in August. The result is the highest for a month of September since 2015, when the IPCA recorded 0.54%. Year-to-date was 3.34%, above the 1.78% registered in the same period last year. In the last twelve months, the index stood at 4.53%, higher than the 4.19% of the previous 12 months. In September 2017, the rate reached 0.16%. The IPCA support material is on the right of this page.

Period RATE
SEPTEMBER 2018 0.48%
August 2018 -0.09%
September 2017 0.16%
Cumulative in the year 3.34%
Cumulative in 12 months 4.53%

Except for the groups Apparel (-0.02%) and Communication (-0.07%), the others recorded positive changes in the price levels between August and September. Accounting for nearly 43% of family expenditures, the groups Food and beverages and Transportation, which in August recorded deflation, -0.34% and -1.22%, respectively, in September recorded highs of 0.10% and 1.69%, as the following table shows.

IPCA - Monthly Change and Impact by Group 
Group Change (%) Impact (pp) 
August Setpember August September
General Index -0.09 0.48 -0.09 0.48
Food and beverages -0.34 0.10 -0.08 0.03
Housing 0.44 0.37 0.07 0.06
Household articles 0.56 0.11 0.02 0.00
Wearing apparel 0.19 -0.02 0.01 0.00
Transportation -1.22 1.69 -0.23 0.31
Health and personal care 0.53 0.28 0.07 0.03
Personal expenses 0.36 0.38 0.04 0.04
Education 0.25 0.24 0.01 0.01
Communication 0.03 -0.07 0.00 0.00
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços

After the 1.22% drop in August, the group of Transportation (1.69%) presented the highest change among the groups of products and services surveyed, besides exerting the main impact on the September index, with 0.31 percentage points (pp). For a month of September, the change of 1.69% is the highest one since the implantation of the Plano Real in 1994, also being the second change above 1.00% in the period (in September 1994 the high was of 1.22%).

The highlight in the group was fuels, which came from a drop of 1.86%, in August, to 4.18% in September, representing 0.24 pp of impact in the IPCA, or 50% of the index. With the exception of natural gas, which decelerated from August (2.41%) to September (0.85%), the other fuels surveyed presented positive changes after the August deflation: gasoline (from -1.45% in August to 3.94% in September), ethanol (from -4.69% in August to 5.42% in September) and diesel fuel (from -0.29% in August to 6.91% in September). It is worth highlighting that the price of the Diesel fuel in the refineries was increased by 13.00% starting in August 31.

Also in Transportation, the item airfares stood out with the high of 16.81%, after decrease of 26.12% registered in August.

The group Food and beverages, after two drops in a row, -0.12% in July and -0.34% in August, recorded a positive rate in September, 0.10%. Food at home (0.00%) recorded, on average, stability in the levels of prices, and left the August drop of 0.72% behind. The highlights were fruits (4.42%), rice (2.16%) and the French roll (0.96%). In the drops, onions (-12.85%), potatoes (-8.11%) long-life milk (-5.82%) cassava flour (-5.54%) and eggs (-2.15%) stood out.

Conversely, food away changed 0.29%, with a highlight to snacks (0.57%) and meals (0.19%).

In the group Housing (0.37%), the main influence came from the group electricity (0.46%).  There was tariff increase in the following areas: 16.94% in São Luís (12.72%) since August 28; 12.00% in Belém (1.09%) and 15.98% in Vitória (5.97%), both in force since August 07. The other areas surveyed changed between -6.20% in the Metropolitan Area of Belo ---Horizonte and the 1.74% of Porto Alegre, due to the increases and reduction in the quotes of PIS/COFINS.

It is worth mentioning that in June the red tariff level 2 entered into effect, with an additional charge of R$0.05 by kwh consumed.

Still in the group of Housing, the change of 0.30% in the item water and sewage fees was due to increases in the following areas:

IPCA - Water and sewage  
Area Change (%) Increase (%) Date
Belém 9.30 9.98 09/01
Vitória 2.21 3.89 08/16
Rio de Janeiro 0.68 5.94 08/01
Belo Horizonte 0.43 4.31 08/01
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços

Also in the group of Housing, the item piped gas (0.77%) reflected the adjustment of 14.89% in Curitiba (7.20%) from September 14 on and 2.52% in Rio de Janeiro (0.30%), in effect since August 1st.

As to the areas, shown in the following table, the greater index stood with Brasília (1.06%) due to the high of 22.48% in airfares and 7.99% in gasoline. The lowest index (0.06%) stood with Belém, where the drops in acai berries (-9.89%) and in cassava flour (-3.03%) were a highlight.

IPCA - Monthly, annual and 12-month change, by area
Area Regional Weight (%) Change (%) Cumulative Change (%)
August September Year 12 months
Brasília 2.80 -0.72 1.06 2.76 4.33
Vitória 1.78 -0.04 0.88 3.78 4.05
São Luís 1.87 -0.51 0.72 2.13 2.13
São Paulo 30.67 0.12 0.61 3.53 5.30
Porto Alegre 8.40 -0.10 0.57 4.04 5.23
Curitiba 7.79 -0.20 0.57 3.23 4.39
Goiânia 3.59 0.30 0.49 2.49 5.56
Campo Grande 1.51 -0.18 0.46 2.50 3.50
Rio Branco 0.42 0.26 0.42 2.38 2.38
Rio de Janeiro 12.06 -0.38 0.38 3.68 4.62
Salvador 6.12 -0.27 0.35 3.30 3.60
Fortaleza 2.91 -0.28 0.28 2.27 3.07
Belo Horizonte 10.86 -0.01 0.27 3.66 4.27
Recife 4.20 -0.09 0.15 2.55 3.39
Aracaju 0.79 0.03 0.08 1.74 1.74
Belém 4.23 -0.12 0.06 1.95 2.15
Brazil 100.00 -0.09 0.48 3.34 4.53
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços

The IPCA has been calculated by the IBGE since 1980. It refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages, whatever the source. It encompasses ten metropolitan areas in Brazil, besides the municipalities of Goiânia, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís, Aracaju and Brasília. In order to estimate the index of the month, the prices collected from August 30 to September 27 of 2018 (reference) were compared with the prices in force from July 28 to August 29 of 2018 (base).

INPC changes 0.30% in September

The National Consumer Price Index - INPC changed 0.30% in September, after the average stability of prices in August (0.00%). This was the highest figure for September since 2015, when the INPC recorded 0.51%. The cumulative index in the year stayed at 3.14%, above the rate of 1.24% recorded in the same period last year. The index stayed at 3.97%, above the 3.64% of the previous 12 months. The rate was -0.02% in September 2017.

Food products rose 0.05% in September, whereas it had dropped in the previous month (0.44%). The group of non-food products changed 0.41%, while it had recorded 0.19% in August.

As to regional indexes, the highest one was in Vitória (0.75%), due to the increase of 15.98% in electricity (5.84%), in effect since August 07, and gasoline (4.36%). The lowest index stood with Aracaju (-0.17%), where the drop in the item perfume (-3.56%) and in electricity (-2.34%) driven by the 31.37% reduction in the PIS/COFINS quota.

INPC - Monthly, annual and 12-month change, by area
Area Weight by area (%) Monthly change (% Cumulative Change (%)
August September Year 12 months
Vitória 1.83 0.30 0.75 3.94 3.95
Brasília 1.88 -0.40 0.54 2.40 3.54
São Luís 3.11 -0.45 0.53 1.72 1.72
São Paulo 24.24 0.23 0.47 3.66 5.19
Porto Alegre 7.38 0.01 0.45 4.20 5.21
Curitiba 7.29 -0.01 0.44 3.40 4.39
Goiânia 4.15 0.39 0.41 2.08 5.12
Campo Grande 1.64 -0.13 0.35 2.29 3.19
Rio Branco 0.59 0.63 0.24 2.81 2.81
Rio de Janeiro 9.51 -0.31 0.21 4.16 4.45
Salvador 8.75 -0.13 0.20 2.82 2.92
Fortaleza 5.42 -0.17 0.15 1.95 2.58
Belo Horizonte 10.60 0.05 0.13 3.36 3.77
Recife 5.88 -0.05 0.06 1.94 2.52
Belém 6.44 -0.09 -0.13 1.66 1.59
Aracaju 1.29 0.07 -0.17 1.24 1.24
Brazil 100.00 0.00 0.30 3.14 3.97
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços

The INPC has been calculated by the IBGE since 1979. It refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 5 minimum wages, with a salaried head of the household. It encompasses ten metropolitan areas in Brazil, besides the municipalities of Goiânia, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís, Aracaju and Brasília. In order to estimate the index of the month, the prices collected from August 30 to September 27 of 2018 (reference) were compared with the prices in force from July 28 to August 29 of 2018 (base).