The second estimate for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2018 added up to 227.2 million tonnes, 5.6% below that obtained in 2017 (240.6 million tonnes), representing a reduction of 13.4 million tonnes. The output increased 0.5% in relation to the first forecast of the 2018 harvest, released in February (226.1 million tonnes). Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group, which, altogether, represented 92.9% of the production and accounted for 86.8% of the area to be harvested.

In relation to 2017, the area for soybeans increased 2.5% and the areas for corn and rice reduced 7,1% and 3.3%, respectively. Concerning production, decreases of 1.6% for soybeans, 13.5% for corn and 5.7% for rice were expected. The complete publication, time series and the publication of this survey are on the right size of this page.

The distribution of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds among the regions, in tonnes, was: Central-West (98.6 million); South (79.7 million), Southeast (22.0 million), Northeast (18.5 million) and North (8.3 million). In relation to the previous harvest, it increased 3.6% in the Northeast and reduced 6.9% in the Central-West, 5.1% in the South, 7.9% in the Southeast and 6.3% in the North.

February estimate in relation to the production in 2017 

Among the 30 major products, 15 registered a positive change in the production estimate over the previous year: upland cottonseed (12.1%), peanuts in the shell – 2nd crop (12.0%), oat grain (15.4%), cacao nuts (0.6%), coffee beans - arabica (17.1%), coffee beans - canephora (7.0%), cashew nuts (10.4%), barley grain (29.9%), bean seed - 2nd crop (8.7%), castor beans (29.9%), cassava (1.2%), sorghum grain (9.2%), tomatoes (1.9%), wheat grain (44.3%) and triticale (38.7%).

The 15 products that dropped were: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (-4.6%), paddy rice (-5.7%), bananas (-1.3%), potatoes - 1st crop (-11.4%), potatoes - 2nd crop (-3.8%), potatoes - 3rd crop (-15,8%), sugarcane (-2.2%), bean seed - 1st crop (-0.7%), bean seed - 3rd crop (-6.7%), tobacco (-3.3%), oranges (-1.5%), corn grain - 1st crop 
(-14.9), corn grain - 2nd crop (-12,8%), soybean grain (-1.6%) and grapes (-16.3%).

February estimate in relation to January 2018

The LSPA in February highlighted the changes in the following production estimates, compared with January: sorghum (7.3%), coffea canephora (2.9%), corn - 2nd crop (0.7%), soybeans (0.6%), rice (0.0%), corn - 1st crop (-0.1%), upland cotton (-0.6%), tomatoes (-1.2%), coffea arabica (-1.2%), beans - 3rd crop (-1.3%), beans - 2nd crop (-1.4%), beans - 1st crop (-1.5%), cacao (-20.9%) and cashew nuts (-29.5%).

UPLAND COTTONSEED - The second estimate of the production of cotton hit 4.3 million tonnes, a drop of 0.6% in relation to January. The average yield was also 0.6% lower, whereas the planted area reduced 0.1%. This reduction was influenced by the estimate in Goiás, since it declined 7.5% over the previous month, as well as in Bahia, which reported a retreat of 2.0% in the estimated production. In Goiás, the planted area also decreased 7.8%, with an increase of 0.3% in the average yield and, in Bahia, the average yield fell 2.7% in spite of the increase of 0.7% in the planted area, which was related to the expectations about the climate.

PADDY RICE - The production estimate of rice was of 11.7 million tonnes in February, 2,449 tonnes less than the estimate in the previous month. The forecast for the average yield remained unchanged in relation to January and the planted area reduced by 381 hectares only. The changes in the states of Paraná and Goiás should be highlighted. Paraná decreased its expected production by 6.4%, pressed by the estimate of the average yield, which stood 6.1% lower than that in the previous month, since the forecast of the planted area stayed only 0.3% smaller. In Goiás, the planted area reduced 1.6%. Nevertheless, the expected production stood 5.8% higher, taking into account the expected increase of 7.5% in the average yield.

CACAO NUTS - The estimate of the production was 215.7 thousand tonnes, a reduction of 20.9% over 2017. Bahia updated its forecast for cacao in February, a reduction of 39.6% in relation to January 2018, when the computations followed the LSPA methodology, taking into account the last five annual averages yields, removing the extreme values, and the area of the previous year. This state did not expect a good harvest. The IBGE Supervision of Agriculture in Bahia considered the climate irregularity and disappearance of some crops the major causes of this reduction.

COFFEE BEANS - The estimate of the production of coffee was of 3.2 million tonnes or 53.0 million 60-kg sacks. The estimated production of coffea arabica was of 2.5 million tonnes or 40.9 million 60-kg sacks, a decrease of 1.2% over the previous month. Despite the increase of 1.3% in the average yield, the area to be harvested shrank 2.4%. Bahia adjusted its estimate for the production of coffea arabica in February, retreating the planted area and area to be harvested by 21.1% and 29.3%, respectively, while the average yield rose 5.7%. The production was estimated at 87.3 thousand tonnes or 1.5 million 60-kg sacks, a drop of 25.2% over January. Concerning coffea canephora, the production was estimated at 728.9 thousand tonnes, a rise of 2.9% over January. The highest changes this month were also recorded in Bahia, whose production was estimated at 97.2 thousand tonnes or 1.6 million sacks.

CASHEW NUTS - The production estimate was of 148.6 thousand tonnes, a decline of 29.5% over the previous month. Having posted a production of 68.5 thousand tonnes of nuts, Ceará updated the previous estimate, which was computed by means of the LSPA methodology. This state has been facing long periods of drought, being responsible for 46.1% of the overall production of cashew nuts. Other important producers were Rio Grande do Norte, with a production estimated at 33.9 thousand tonnes, and Piauí, with 30.0 thousand tonnes. The production of cashew nuts is concentrated in typical dry areas in the Northeast Region. Its production is related to the amount and regularity of rainfall along the year, particularly in the most sensitive periods, such as flowering and fruiting.

BEAN SEED - Having a production estimate of 3.3 million tonnes, beans fell 1.4% in relation to the previous month. The forecast for the first crop was reduced by 1.5% compared with the January estimate, registering drops in Bahia (-21.9%) and Paraná (-3.0%). In Pernambuco, the estimate rose 156.6% over January, due to the positive expectation about the climate.

The second crop of beans was estimated with a decrease of 1.4% over the January estimate. The decline in the expected production of the second crop of beans was mainly due to the reduction in the states of Bahia (7.5%), Paraná (1.7%) and Goiás (10.7%), as a result of the climate. Expectations concerning profitability also stimulated the decision taking in relation to cropping during droughts.

The third crop shrank 1.3% in production over the previous estimate. Having a drop of 3.7% in production, Goiás was the state that mostly influenced this result. The biggest producers of this crop were Minas Gerais (37.3%), Goiás (34.7%) and São Paulo (11.9%). Expectations concerning profitability of the crops also stimulated the decision taking in relation to cropping irrigated harvests.

CORN GRAIN - The production estimate of corn hit 86.1 million tonnes, representing an increase of 0.4% over the previous month. The production estimate for the first crop was of 26.5 million tonnes, representing a drop of 0.1% over the previous month. Paraná, Goiás, Bahia and Pará reported reductions in their production estimates in relation to the previous month.

The production estimate for the second crop was of 59.7 million tonnes, representing a rise of 0.7% over the previous month. The increase in the production estimate of corn - 2nd crop this month was mainly due to Goiás, which increased by 4.7% its production estimate, adding up to 7.9 million tonnes, as a result of the positive expectations about the climate. Paraná was another state that increased the production estimate for the second crop, expecting a growth of 0.6% and 12.4 million tonnes of corn in this period.

SOYBEAN GRAIN - The estimated production of soybeans was of 113.2 million tonnes, representing an increase of 0.6% when compared with the previous month (112.4 million tonnes). The planted area increased 0.5%, reaching 34.7 million hectares. In the case of the average yield, the increase was of 0.2%. The harvest advanced in the major producer states, though late in relation to 2017. The excess of rainfall has been hampering the fieldwork and, therefore, rising the production costs, due either to the control of fungal diseases or to the increase in the consumption of fuels. On the other hand, soybean prices in February hit the highest level in a year in the Chicago Board of Trade - CBOT. The lack of rainfall in Argentina since November remained leveraging the soybean prices in the foreign market, as well as the delay in the harvest in Brazil, due to the excess of rainfall.

The biggest change in the production this month took place in Goiás, which grew 6.8% thanks to the adjustment in the average yield, which rose 6.5% due to the fair weather in February. As a result, the production estimate of soybeans in this state was of 11.2 million tonnes, getting closer to the record harvest in 2017: 11.4 million tonnes. Bahia also updated its estimates, posting a rise of 11.4% in the planted area and a retreat of 10.7% in the average yield. As a result, 4.7 million tonnes were expected, 0.5% less than the estimate released last month. Climate problems occurred in Paraná, such as excess of rainfall and two weeks of drought.

SORGHUM GRAIN - The estimated production was of 2.3 million tonnes, a rise of 7.3% over the previous month. The planted area and area to be harvested grew 2.7%, whereas the average yield increased 4.5%. The data were leveraged by Goiás, which estimated a production of 992.4 thousand tonnes, representing an increase of 24.1% over the previous month. The average yield should hit 3,523 kg/ha, representing an increase of 23.3%. Goiás should produce 42.3% of the national output in 2018, followed by Minas Gerais, with 594.2 thousand tonnes and share of 25.3% of the total.

TOMATOES - In spite of the drop of 1.2% in the production of tomatoes in February over January 2018, the Brazilian harvest in 2018 (4.5 million tonnes) should fairly address the domestic consumption. The biggest producers were Goiás (32.4% of the overall production), São Paulo (21.1%), Minas Gerais (16.7%), Bahia (4.5%) and Santa Catarina (4.4%).