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IBGE estimates grain crops 9.2% lower than in 2018

December 12, 2017 09h00 AM | Last Updated: December 13, 2017 10h48 AM

The second forecast for the 2018 crop shows that the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was estimated at 219.5 million metric tons, i. e., 9.2% below the 2017 crop. This reduction is due to the lower yields expected for corn ( 15.9 million metric tons) and for soybeans (6.8 million metric tons). The 11th estimate for the 2017 crop totaled 241.9 million metric tons, an increase of 56.1 million metric tons (30.2%) compared to 2016 (185.8 million metric tons). The area to be harvested (61.2 million hectares) was 7.2% higher than that of 2016. Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products of this group, and, together, they represent 93.9% of the production estimate and account for 87.8% of the area to be harvested. In relation to 2016, there was an increase of 2.2% in the soybean area, 19.2% in the corn area and 4.6% in the rice area. As for production, there were increases of 17.4% for rice, 19.4% for soybean and 55.2% for corn.

NOVEMBER's estimate for 2017 241.9 million metric tons
November 2017/ October 2017 - change 0.1% (280.7 thousand metric tons)
2017 crop/ 2016 crop - change 30.2% (56.1 million metric tons)
NOVEMBER's estimate for 2018 219.5 million metric tons
2018 crop/ 2017 crop - change -9.2% (-22.4 million metric tons)

Regionally, the November estimate for the 2017 crop shows the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds with the following distribution, in tons: Central-West Region (106.0 million); South Region (85.2 million); Southeast Region (24.0 million); Northeast Region (17.9 million) and North Region (8.8 million). In relation to the last crop, increases were observed in all regions: Southeast (16.4%), North (25.1%), Northeast (86.2%), Central-West (41.0%) and South (16.1%). In this estimate for 2017, Mato Grosso led as the largest national grain producer with a share of 26.2%, followed by Paraná (17.2%) and Rio Grande do Sul (15.1%), which, represented 58.5% of the national estimate. The complete publication of the survey can be accessed here.

For 2018, according to forecast, crops will be 9.2% below 2017

In this second forecast, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2018 was estimated at 219.5 million metric tons, 9.2% lower than the total obtained in the 2017 crop. This reduction is due to the lower expected yields for corn ( 15.9 million metric tons) and for soybeans (6.8 million metric tons).

Among the five main products for the next crop, three are expected to record production deline: paddy rice (-8.0%), corn in grain (-15.9%) and soybeans in grain (-5.9%). High yields are expected for upland cotton (4.5%) and bean seeds (4.1%).

In this forecast, the field information represents 93.8% of the expected national production, while projections account for 6.2% of the estimated total.

UPLAND COTTONSEED - With better weathe forecast, the second preview of cotton production is 4.0 million metric tons, an increase of 6.2% over the previous month. The planted area and area to be harvested increased by 3.7% and the average yield increased by 2.4%. As a whole, an area of 1,023.2 thousand hectares should be planted. In Mato Grosso, the country's largest producer, production estimates reach 2.7 million metric tons, representing 66.3% of the total to be harvested in 2018 by the country and 4.5% growth over 2017. The planted area and the area to be harvested grew 10.2%, while the estimated average yield had a retraction of 5.2%. Bahia, the second largest producer in the country, should participate with 22.8% of the total to be harvested in 2018. The state should harvest 914.8 thousand metric tons, an increase of 31.8% over the previous month.

PADDY RICE - The second forecast for rice production in 2018 is 11.5 million metric tons (-0.1% in relation to October and -8.0% in relation to 2017). Rio Grande do Sul, the largest rice producer in the country, is expected to participate with 70.9% of the total to be harvested in 2018, with an estimated production of 8.1 million metric tons (-6.9% compared to 2017). Santa Catarina, the second largest producer, estimates 1.1 million metric tons and an expected average yield of 7305 kg/ha (-4.9% compared to the 2017 harvest). Tocantins estimated a production of 582.7 thousand metric tons (-14.0% in relation to 2017). In Maranhão and Mato Grosso, the estimated production is falling 5.9% and 21.7%, respectively.

BEAN SEEDS - The second estimate of bean production for the 2018 crop is 3.4 million metric tons, an increase of 4.1% compared to the crop harvested in 2017. The 1st crop should produce 1.7 million metric tons; the 2nd crop, of 1.3 million metric tons and the 3rd crop, 520 thousand  metric tons. Regarding the 1st prognosis, there was a 4.6% increase in the production estimates of beans 1st crop, with increases of 2.2% in the area to be harvested and 2.4% in the average yield. It is posible that there be better productivity in Paraíba (134.1%), Bahia (18.6%), Rio Grande do Norte (17.6%), Rondônia (11.5%), Minas Gerais 7%) and in Mato Grosso do Sul (12.1%).

The area to be planted in the summer crop (1st crop) is 1.8 million hectares, 2.0% less than in 2017. The area to be harvested, in turn, is expected to grow 2.0%. The highest increases in production in percentage terms for this crop are being reported by Ceará (62.2%), Rio Grande do Norte (78.2%), Paraíba (82.3%), Bahia (21.7% %) and Minas Gerais (11.2%). In terms of volume of production, the highlights are Ceará (84.6 thousand metric tons), Bahia (30.6 thousand metric tons), Paraná (11.5 thousand metric tons) and Paraíba (12.3 thousand metric tons).

CORN (grain) - The second prognosis of corn grain estimates a production of 83.7 million metric tons in 2018 (-15.9% over 2017). Field forecasts for this month represent almost the entire estimate of the first crop (99.8%), while the estimate for the second crop is still at 15.8% in terms of projections. The 2017 crop was a record, reaching 99.6 million metric tons, which increases the comparison basis for production next year. Following the trend of the last years, the 2nd crop should show the highest volume harvested in the country, with 69.2% of the national production in 2018, totaling 57.9 million metric tons (-15.5% compared to 2017).

The 1st corn crop is expected to reach 25.8 million metric tons (-17.0% in comparison with the previous period). When compared to the 1st prognosis, the decrease in the production estimate was 1.2%, mainly due to the states of Bahia (-15.1%) and Minas Gerais (-9.9%). Even with a lower cost of production forecast, compared to the previous crop, a reduction in planted area of corn is estimated, due to the low purchase prices observed throughout the year 2017, which encouraged the producers to replace the areas of 1st crop corn for soybean. The reduction in the planted area in the 1st crop should reach 7.3%, estimated at 5.3 million hectares.

However, the greatest impact on the decrease in the forecast is due to the average yield, which is expected to fall by 12.2% in relation to the same period of 2017, when the production result was considered exceptional. The delay in the beginning of soybean planting in the main producing states, due to the low rainfall in August and September, should also contribute to the decrease in the areas of 2nd corn crop.

SOYBEAN (grain) - The second production estimate for 2018 was 108.1 million metric tons, a reduction of 5.9% compared to the 2017 crop. The area to be planted is 34.1 million hectares,  an increase of 0.5%. The estimated average yield is 3,170 kg/ha, a decrease of 6.6%, due to uncertainties regarding the weather during the crop cycle. Considering the historical record of soybean production in 2017, the comparison basis is relatively high.

The trend for more advantageous prices, compared to corn, should stimulate the planting of soybeans, which has an expected share of 49.3% of the country's total grain crop. Mato Grosso, the largest national producer, should contribute with 30.4 million metric tons, 28.1% of the total to be produced by the country (-0.2% in relation to 2017, despite a 1.0% increase in the area to be planted). Paraná, the second largest producer and responsible for 18.1% of the national total, estimates to produce 19.6 million metric tons (-1.1%, despite a 5.5% growth in the area to be planted). Rio Grande do Sul, the third largest producer, estimated a production of 14.7 million metric tons (-21.7% compared to 2017).

In relation to the 1st forecast, released in the previous month, there was a 0.4% increase in production, mainly due to increases in Bahia (12.6%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (4.3%). Some states revised their estimates down, such as Rondônia (-8.9%) and Minas Gerais (-6.1%).

Highlights in November’s estimate of 2017 compared to October

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of November in relation to October, there were changes in production estimates of barley (2.6%), rice (1.1%), onion (1.1%), potato 2nd crop (0.9%), oats (-0.5%), wheat (-0.7%) and beans 2nd crop (-1.2%).

PADDY RICE - Rice production was 12.5 million metric tons, 1.1% higher than the previous month's estimate. The planted area and average yield were revised by 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively, as a result of the Tocantins’s report. The state's production increased by 26.4% in relation to the previous month, reaching 677.6 thousand metric tons, an increase of 141.5 thousand metric tons. The planted area and the area to be harvested grew 13.3%, while the average yield grew 11.6%. The use of new rice seeds for irrigated farming has increased the average crop yield.

POTATO – As a whole, the country should produce 4.2 million metric tons potatoes in 2017, an increase of 0.3% over the previous month. There was a small adjustment in the harvested area (0.2%) and in the average yield (0.1%). The production estimate for the 1st crop did not change in relation to the previous month, remaining at 2.0 million metric tons. The production of the 2nd crop was estimated at 1.2 million metric tons, an increase of 0.9% in relation to the previous month. The data was influenced by the Federal District, which this month updated its production data with a new estimate of 10.8 thousand metric tons. For the 3rd crop, a production of 1.0 million metric tons was estimated, an increase of 0.4% in relation to October.

ONIONS - National onion production is 1.7 million metric tons, an increase of 1.1% over the previous month. There was a 0.6% increase in the estimated area harvested and an increase of 0.5% in the average yield, which should reach 29,645 kg/ha. Data were influenced by the Federal District, where the planted area and the area harvested increased 184.2%, while the average yield increased 28.2%. The increase in area is due to the investments of large companies that produce and sell fruits and vegetables, with irrigated and technology-intensive crops, which explains the high average yield of 50,000 kg/ha.

WINTER CEREALS (in grain) - Winter crops are in full harvest-time. The main winter cereal produced by the country is wheat. The production estimate is of 5.1 million metric tons (-0.7% in relation to October). The average yield decreased at the same percentage level, being estimated at 2,673 kg/ha. Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul are the largest wheat producers, with 84.0% of the country's production. For oat, the estimated production is 873.2 thousand metric tons (-0.5% in relation to October). The data were influenced by Paraná, which reduced the crop productivity by 5.8%. In terms of barley, production is expected to reach 376.9 thousand metric tons, an increase of 2.6% over the previous month. The average yield presented a growth of 3.4%, while the area harvested, a reduction of 0.8%. The production estimate for Paraná increased from 156.3 thousand metric tons in October to 165.7 thousand metric tons in November, an increase of 9.4 thousand metric tons (6.0%). The average yield grew 8.0%.

BEAN (seeds)- Production is estimated at 3.3 million metric tons, down 0.7% from October. The data that most influenced this decrease in production were those of Ceará (-7.5% in the production estimate) and those of Pernambuco (-17.5%) in relation to October. The average income in these states was revised down 6.8% and 15.4%, respectively. In November, there were reductions in all bean crops, with 0.4% in the estimated yield of beans 1st crop, 1.2% in beans 2nd crop and 0.9% in the 3rd crop. The production reported by Ceará was 7.4% lower for the first harvest, while in Pernambuco it was 26.8% lower for the second harvest, due to the effects of the weather, notably the lack of rainfall. Regarding the 3rd crop, the Federal District reported a 45.9% decrease in production, attributable to the problems of water rationing, which made it impossible to use the irrigation crop.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose municipal and/or regional information is consolidated at the national level by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from the IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). The surveys relative to cereals (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), legumes (peanuts and beans) and oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) have been conducted in partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in March, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.