In March 2016, in the seasonally adjusted series, the national retail trade recorded decreases of 0,9% for the volume of sales and of -0,4% for the nominal revenue. Concerning the quarterly moving average index, the volume of sales kept the downward trend (-0.6%), whereas the nominal revenue registered again a positive change of 0.4%.

In the unadjusted series, in relation to March 2015, the volume of sales of the retail trade fell 5.7%, the 12th negative rate in a row in this comparison. In the year, the retail accumulated 7.0%. The cumulative index of the last 12 months (-5.8%) recorded the sharpest loss in the time series, started in December 2001, and kept the downward trend begun in July 2014 (4.3%). For the nominal revenue, the rates are positive: 6.2% over March 2015, 4.7% in the cumulative index in the year and 3.1% in the cumulative index in the last 12 months.

The extended retail trade (retail trade plus the activities of motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and construction material) recorded again a negative change for the volume of sales against the previous month, in the seasonally adjusted series (-1.1%), after an advance in February (1.4%). For the nominal revenue, the decrease in March 2016 in relation to February was of -0.8%. In the comparison with March 2015, the decrease was 7.9% for the volume of sales and the positive change was of 0.6% for the nominal revenue. The cumulative rates for the volume of sales were -9.4% in the year and -9.6% in the last 12 months, whereas for the nominal revenue the rates were -0.7% and -2.2%, respectively.

The complete publication of the survey can be accessed here.

Six in the eight activities surveyed recorded negative change

The drop in the volume of sales (-0.9%) recorded between February and March 2016 was also observed in six of the eight activities surveyed in the retail trade, with a highlight to the influence of the segment of hypermarket, supermarket, food, beverages and tobacco, which recorded a drop of 1.7% in March after advancing 0.8% in February, followed by furniture and household appliances (-1.1% in March after 6.1% in February) and fuels and lubricants (-1.2% in March after 0.3% in February). These activities had the same performance in March.

The other sectors that registered drop in the volume of sales over the previous month have the third consecutive negative rate in the year: fabric, wearing apparel and footwear (-3.6%); other personal and household articles (-2.5%) and books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-1.1%).

On the other hand, the activities that increased the volume of sales between February and March were: office, computer and communication equipment and material (6.1%) and pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetic and toilet articles (0.7%).

In that same comparison, considering the extended retail trade, the decrease was of -1.1% over February, with the sectors of vehicles and motorcycles, parts and accessories and of construction material registering once again negative changes of -0.5% and -0.3%, respectively.

BRAZIL - INDICATORS OF THE VOLUME OF SALES OF THE RETAIL TRADE AND EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE,
ACCORDING TO GROUPS OF ACTIVITIES: PMC - March 2016

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
(1) Seasonally-adjusted series

(2) The retail trade indicator comprises the results of teh indicators of the activities from 1 to 8.
(3) The extended retail trade indicator comprises the results of the results of activities from 1 to 10.

Compared with the same month a year ago, the volume of sales fell 5.7% in the retail trade. In order of contribution to the global rate, the results were the following: furniture and household appliances, with a loss of 13.8%, followed by other articles of personal and household use (-11.9%); fabric, wearing apparel and footwear (-14.1%), fuels and lubricants (-10.1%); hypermarkets, supermarkets, food, beverages and tobacco (-1.2%); office, computer and communication equipment and material (-8.9%); books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-16.2%). The only segment with a positive impact in the retail was pharmaceutical, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics, with a growth of 2.0% over March 2015.

The activity furniture and household appliances, with a change of -13.8% in the volume of sales in relation to March last year, exerted the major negative impact in the formation of the retail rate and registered the 12th negative rate in this comparison. In the cumulative rate between January and March and in the last 12 months, the rates were: -17.0% and -16.6%, respectively. Such behavior can be attributed to a lower credit offer and a growth in the interest rate to the families.

The sector of other articles of personal and household use, which comprises department stores, jewelry shops, sporting goods and toy stores, with a drop of 11.9% over March 2015, recorded the second major negative contribution to the volume of sales, in the eighth month in a row of negative contributions in this kind of comparison. This behavior reflects the current economic situation, mostly concerning the loss of purchasing power of the families, made clear in the reduction of the real wage bill. The cumulative change for the first three months of the year was -12.8%, and for the last 12 months, -6.0%.

The segment of fuels and lubricants decreased by 10.1% the volume of sales in relation to March 2015, accounting for the third highest negative contribution to the retail global rate. The losses of 9.5% accumulated in the quarter from January-March and of -7.5% in the last 12 months reflect the price behavior of the sub-item fuels, which grew above the overall average, according to the IPCA.

The activity of fabric, wearing apparel and footwear was also responsible for the third highest negative contribution to the overall index of the retail, with a change of -14.1% in relation to the same month a year ago, -12.9% in the cumulative index in the year and -10.6% for the last 12 months. Even with prices of the sub-item wearing apparel underperforming in relation to the overall inflation rate, the activity has shown a lower performance in relation to the overall average of the retail trade.

The sector of Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food, beverages and tobacco, with a change of 1.2% in the volume of sales in March 2016 over the same month a year ago, was the fourth main negative contribution to the overall retail rate. In terms of cumulative results, this activity changed -2.8% in the year and -2.9% in the last 12 months. Besides the pressure of food at home prices, which are above the overall average, such negative performance was influenced by the reduced purchasing power of the population.

The sector of office, computer and communication equipment and material, decreasing 8.9% in the volume of sales in comparison with March 2015, had the fifth highest negative contribution to the formation of the global retail rate. The cumulative figures - changes of -16.8% in the year and of -9.9% in the last 12 months - could be explained by the behavior of computer prices, an important product of this activity.

The sales of books, newspapers, magazines and stationery, which almost did not exert impact on the formation of the global result, recorded change in the volume of sales of -16.2% over March 2015, cumulative indexes in the year were of -14.9% and of -13.2% in the last 12 months. The downward trend of this activity has been influenced, as far as newspapers and magazines are concerned, by a certain replacement of print products by electronic ones.

Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic goods and toiletries was the only one with a positive performance in March 2016, recorded a rate of 2.0% over March 2015, cumulative rates in the year and in the last 12 months of 2.4% and 2,3%, respectively. The favorable performance of this sector could be especially attributed to the essential nature of its products and to the change of medicine prices below the overall index.

The extended retail trade recorded in the relation March 2016/March 2015, for the volume of sales, changes of -7.9%, -9.4% in the cumulative rate in the year and -9.6% in 12 months. This behavior is mostly due to the negative performance of two main sectors, Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and construction material.  

In relation to the sector of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, the -11.1% decrease in the comparison with March 2015 recorded the 25th consecutive negative rate, accumulating in the first three months of the year a change of -13.5% and, in 12 months, of -17.6%. The segment of construction material, with a change of -14.6% against March 2015, records the ninth consecutive negative rate in this kind of comparison, accumulating -14.7% in the year and -10.9% in 12 months. The reduced sales in this segment were due to, among other aspects, the lower offer of credit and to the restrictive budget of families, as a result of the deceleration of the real wage bill.

BRAZIL - COMPOSITION OF THE MONTHLY  RATE OF THE RETAIL TRADE, BY ACTIVITIES: PMC - March 2016
(Indicators of the volume of sales)

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
Note: It corresponds to the contribution of the results of the sectors to the overall rate.

Volume of sales down in 26 of the 27 Federation Units

In regional terms, for the volume of sales of the retail trade, 26 of the 27 Federation Units recorded decrease in March over February 2016, in the seasonally adjusted series, with a highlight to: Acre (-6.9%); Espírito Santo (-5.2%); Amapá (-5.0%) and Rondônia (-4.8%). The only positive rate was recorded in Sergipe (0.7%).

In the comparison with March 2015, 26 of the 27 Federation Units registered drops, with a highlight to the greatest falls: Amapá (-22.1%), Acre (-16.7%), Bahia (-12.3%), Pará (-11.9%). As to the highest negative contributions to the retail trade, the highlights were, in order: São Paulo (-4.7%), followed by Rio de Janeiro, with -4.5%

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