The pace of decline in the national industrial output between February and March in the seasonally adjusted series occurred in five of the 14 places surveyed with a highlight to the sharpest drops recorded by Ceará (-3.1%), Minas Gerais
(-2.5%), Paraná (-2.3%) and Pernambuco (-2.2%). With this month's results, the first place eliminated the advance of 1.0% seen last February; the second place almost repeated the decrease occurred last month (-2.7%); the third one offset the expansion of 1.4% observed in the previous month; and the last place registered the second month in a row of output decline - a period when there was a cumulative loss of 4.7%. São Paulo (-0.8%), the most diversified and relevant industrial park in the country, closed the set of places with negative indexes in March 2015. On the other hand, Bahia, with an expansion of 22.1%, registered the greatest growth this month, after three consecutive months of production fall - a period in which it accumulated a loss of 21.9%. The Northeast (8.1%), Rio de Janeiro (4.8%) and Pará (3.2%) also posted sharp advances in March 2015, whereas Espírito Santo (1.2%), Rio Grande do Sul (1.1%), Goiás (0.7%), Amazonas (0.5%) and Santa Catarina (0.3%) had less intense expansions.

The complete publication of this survey can be accessed at https://www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/indicadores/industria/pimpf/regional/default.shtm.

Short-term Indicators of Industry - Regional Results - March 2015

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
* Seasonally Adjusted Series

In the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving index for the industry overall registered a drop of 0.6%, in the quarter ended in March 2015, against the previous month, after also recording negative results for November (-0.5%), December
(-1.0%), January (-0.9%) and February (-0.9%). By areas, still in relation to the movement of the index on margin, four places had negative rates, with a highlight to the sharpest decreases registered by Paraná (-1.9%), Ceará (-1.6%) and Amazonas (-1.6%). On the other hand, Goiás (2.4%), Pernambuco (2.4%), São Paulo (2.1%), Espírito Santo (2.0%) and Pará (1.8%) recorded the major advances in March 2015.

In the comparison with the same month a year ago, the industrial sector shrank 3.5% in March 2015, with eleven of the fifteen places surveyed registering drops in the production. It is worth mentioning that March 2015 (22 days) had three more workdays than the same month a year ago (19 days). This month, the sharpest drops were recorded by Amazonas
(-20.6%) and Minas Gerais (-9.7%), pushed, to a large extent, by the reduction in the output of the sectors of computer, electronic and optical products (TV sets and personal portable computers) and beverages (syrup preparations for the elaboration of beverages for industrial purposes), in the first place; and of Motor Vehicles, trailers and bodies (cars), basic metals (pig iron, hot-rolled carbon steel plates and hot-rolled carbon steel coils), machinery and equipment (motor graders, wheel loaders and tractors), mining and quarrying industries (crude or improved iron ores) and beverages (soft drinks, beer and draft beer), in the second place. Paraná (-5.2%), Rio de Janeiro (-5.1%), Santa Catarina (-4.0%) also recorded sharper drops than the national average (-3.5%), whereas Bahia (-3.1%), São Paulo (-2.7%), Ceará (-2.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (-2.1%), the Northeast Region (-1.2%) and Pernambuco (-0.7%) closed the set of places with negative rates this month. On the other hand, Espírito Santo (19.8%) and Mato Grosso (11.8%) recorded the highest advance this month, leveraged to a great extent by the positive behavior of the mining and quarrying industries (pelletized iron ore and crude petroleum oil) and of basic metals (hot-rolled carbon steel coils, carbon steel ingots, blocks, billets and plates and iron and steel flexible and drawn tubes), in the first place, and of mining and quarrying industries, (crude and processed iron ores), in the second one. The other positive results were registered in Goiás (6.2%) and Mato Grosso (6.1%).

In the cumulative indicator for first quarter of the year, over the same period a year ago, the reduction in the national output reached eleven of the fifteen places surveyed, with seven places shrinking above the industry average (-5.9%): Amazonas (-17.8%), Bahia
(-12.5%), Paraná (-10.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (-8.8%), Minas Gerais (-8.0%), Santa Catarina
(-7.0%) and Rio de Janeiro (-6.3%). The other places with negative results in the end of the three-year period of 2015 were: Ceará (-5.9%), the Northeast Region (-5.8%), São Paulo (-5.4%) and Goiás (-0.8%). In these places, the lowest dynamism was particularly influenced by the reduction of the manufacture of capital goods (especially those related to transportation equipment - tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, trucks and vehicles for the transportation of goods), intermediate goods (car parts, petroleum products, textiles, steel products, metal products, basic petrochemicals, thermoplastic resins and agrochemicals) and durable consumer goods (cars, "white goods", "brown goods", motorcycles and furniture) and semi- and non-durable goods (medicine, textiles, wearing apparel, beverages, food products and motor gasoline). On the other hand, Espírito Santo (20.9%) and Pará (8.7%) recorded the highest expansions, leveraged to a great extent by the positive behavior of the mining and quarrying sector. Moreover, Mato Grosso (3.9%) and Pernambuco (2.0%) recorded the positive rates in the cumulative index of the year.

The signs of pace of decline in the output were also evident in the comparison between the last quarter of 2014 and the result of the first quarter of 2015 - both comparisons against the same periods in the previous year - when eleven of the fifteen places surveyed posted loss of dynamism, following the movement of the cumulative index, which fell from -4.1%, in the fourth quarter last year, to -5.9% in the cumulative index over the first three months of 2015. In this same kind of comparison, Bahia (1.7% to -12.5%), Amazonas (-11.1% to
-17.8%), Paraná (-4.2% to -10.5%), the Northeast Region (0.3% to -5.8%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-3.9% to -8.8%) registered the greatest reductions, whereas Espírito Santo (12.1% to 20.9%), Pernambuco (-5.2% to 2.0%) and Pará (4.3% to 8.7%) recorded the highest pace gains between the two periods.

The annual rate, cumulative indicator over the last twelve months, with a drop of 4.7% in March 2015, kept the downward trend started in March of 2014 (2.1%) and registered the most significant negative result since January 2010 (-4.8%). In regional terms, eleven of the fifteen places surveyed had negative rates in March 2015 and ten indicated a lower dynamism over last February. The main losses between February and March were registered by Amazonas (-8.7% to -10.9%), Minas Gerais (-4.5% to -5.5%), Pernambuco (0.0% to -1.0%), the Northeast Region (-1.5% to -2.2%) and Santa Catarina (-3.7% to -4.3%), whereas Espírito Santo (9.9% to 11.8%) recorded the highest advance between the two periods.

Monthly Survey of Industry - Physical Production - Regional Results
Cumulative Index in the Last 12 Months 
(Base: Previous twelve months)

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria