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2015 harvest is record and IBGE expects rise of 0.5% in 2016

January 12, 2016 09h00 AM | Last Updated: February 02, 2018 11h47 AM


DECEMBER estimate for 2015

209.5 million tonnes

Change December / November 2015

-0.4% ( - 746,519 tonnes)

Change 2015 harvest/2014 harvest

7.7% ( + 15 million tonnes)

3rd estimate for 2016

210.7 million tonnes ( + 0.5%)

In 2015, 209.5 million tonnes of cereals, legumes and oilseeds were produced in Brazil, exceeding 7.7% the production in 2014. For 2016, the third forecast of the IBGE expected a harvest of 210.7 million tonnes, exceeding 0.5% the production in 2015.

The twelfth estimate of 2015 of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (upland cotton, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) totaled 209.5 million metric tons, 7.7% higher than the harvest obtained in 2014 (194.6 million metric tons) and 746.519 metric tons smaller (-0.4%) than the estimate of November. The estimate of the area to be harvested was 57.7 million hectares, presenting an increase of 1.8% compared with the harvested area in 2014 (56.7 million hectares) and a drop of 14.711 hectares in relation to the previous month (-0.0%). Together, rice, corn and soybeans, the three major products in this group, represented 93.01% of the production estimate and accounted for 86.3% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, there were increments of 6.1% in the soybeans area, 0.8% in the corn area and a reduction of 8.4% in the rice area. Concerning production, the increases were of 1.1% for rice, 11.9% for soybeans and of 7.3% for corn.

Cereals, legumes and oilseeds
Major Regions
Participation in the production
December 2015

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Cereals, legumes and oilseeds
Federation Units
Participation in the production
December 2015

Among the Major Regions, the volume of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was: Central-West Region, 89.9 million metric tons; South, 76.0 million metric tons; Southeast, 19.3% million metric tons; Northeast, 16.6 million metric tons and North, 7.7 million metric tons. Compared with the previous harvest, increases were recorded for the North Region, 22.1%, Northeast, 5.4%, Southeast, 5.0%, South, 7.0%, and Central-West Region, 8.3%. Compared with the previous harvest, increases were recorded for the North Region, 22.1%, Northeast Region, 5.4%, Southeast Region, 5.0%, South Region, 7.0% and Central-West Region, 8.3%. According to this estimate for 2015, Mato Grosso led the national production of grains, with a contribution of 24.9%, followed by Paraná (18.0%) and Rio Grande do Sul (15.2%). These states together accounted for 58.1% of the total estimated production.

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Among the 26 surveyed products, eight registered a hike in the production estimate in relation to 2014: paddy rice (1.1%), oat grain (4.8%), potatoes 3rd crop (1.6%), sugarcane (2.4%), castor beans (103.1%), corn grain 2nd crop (15.0%), soybean grain (11.9%) and triticale grain (75.6%).

With a negative change, there were 18 products: upland cottonseed (2.7%), peanuts in the shell 1st crop (10.2%), peanuts in the shell 2nd crop (38.8%), potatoes 1st crop (1.2%), potatoes 2nd crop (2.0%), cacao nuts (6.7%), coffee beans (arabica) (1.1%), coffee beans (canephora) (17.3%), onions (11.2%), barley grain (26.4%), beans 1st crop (4.5%), beans 2nd crop (7.9%), beans 3rd crop (2.4%), oranges (3.9%), cassava (2.1%), corn grain 1st crop (4.8%), sorghum grain (7.1%) and wheat grain (13.4%).

SUGARCANE – After bad results in the previous year – when the production of sugarcane of the country fell 4.0% versus the production of 2013, mainly due to prices and to a warm and dry weather in the main producing regions –,the estimated production increased 2.4% in 2015 in relation to 2014, and should reach 755 million metric tons. The planted area and the area to be harvested dropped 3.2% and 1.5%, respectively, whereas the average yield increased 3.9%, due to more investments and to a rainy year.

Concerning the recovery of the production of sugarcane, in terms of volume of production in 2015 versus 2014, the highlights were: São Paulo, which reported an increment of 14.6% million tons in relation to the previous year; Mato Grosso do Sul, with an increment of 7.2% million tons, and Paraná, with an increment of 3.3 million tons.

ONIONS – Even in a year with record prices for the Brazilian producers, a drop of 11.2% was recorded in the production of onions in 2015. In the beginning of the year, the production in the South Region dropped, and the crop of onions in Argentina, the main exporter of onions to Brazil, was lost. With that, for the first time the imports from Europe were higher than from Argentina. The high costs of this imports were passed on to consumers, increasing the prices and the index of the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA).

The low supply was aggravated, in the first semester, by the drop of 19.0% of the production in Bahia, where the lack of rain reduced the yield by 16.4%. Conversely, Goiás and Minas Gerais were the main benefited states with a rise of the onions price. In the second semester, the offer remained dropping, due to rainfall in the South Region of Brazil.

BEAN SEEDS– After low prices for the producers in 2014, the first harvest (43.2% of the total production of beans) decreased by 4.5% compared with the same period of the previous year. The estimate of the planted area was also reduced: 5.2% smaller than that of the previous year. The estimated total production was 1.3 million metric tons.

With the exception of the Central-West, all the other Brazilian Regions had a reduction of planted area during the first harvest, in which the main producers were: Paraná (322.2 thousand tons), Bahia (239.5 thousand tons) and Minas Gerais (162.0 thousand tons). Paraná and Minas Gerais reduced their production by 18.3% and 20.0%, respectively. Conversely, Bahia reported a rise in the production of 152.6%.

In the second harvest (42.0% of the total of beans), even with higher prices, the producers faced rising prices of production, due to dollar rising and expenses with input to repel whiteflies. The estimated production was of 1.3 million tons of beans, 7.9% smaller than in 2014.

The reduction of planted area was observed, once more, in all the regions, with the exception of the Central-West. The main producing states of beans of this season followed the same order of the first harvest: Paraná (30.1% of production), Bahia (15.0%) and Minas Gerais (12.1%). All these states reported a drop in the production in relation to 2014.

The third harvest maintained the declining trend in the production and planted area. 461.0 thousand tonnes were produced, or 2.4% smaller than in 2014.

Southeast was the main producing region of the third crop (246.3 thousand tons), maintaining the production practically stable in relation to 2014. The decrease of 5.6% of the planted area was compensated by an increase of 5.7% in the average yield.

Minas Gerais was the main national producer of the third crop. 190.0 thousand tons were produced. This rate was 7.4% smaller than that reported in the previous year. The decrease of 10.4% in the planted area was the main responsible for the drop of the state output.

CASSAVA (roots) – With the prices out of phase over the year, the estimated production of cassava in the country reached 22.8% million metric tons, a drop of 2.1% in relation to the previous year. The planted area and the area to be harvested decreased 21.0% and 4.7% in the year, respectively, and the average yield reported a rise of 2.7%.

With the exception of the Central-West Region, it was recorded an increase of 5.6% in the estimated output in 2015 in relation to 2014. In the other regions, it was observed decreases in the production: Northeast (-6.3%), Southeast (-1.9%), South (-1.7%) and North (-0.8%).

In the North Region, in 2015, the estimated production increased 7.9% in Rondônia, 36.7% in Roraima and 21.0% in Tocantins. It was registered a drop in the other states traditionally more important, such as Pará (-1.8%), the main national producer of the country and responsible for 21.2% of the national total, Acre (-7.6%) and Amazonas (-1.7%).

In the Northeast Region, the production of cassava faced one more year of drought, occurring a decrease of 8.5% in Maranhão, 25.5% in Ceará, 8.9% in Rio Grande do Norte, 3.1% in Paraíba, 8.6% in Sergipe and 13.0% in Bahia. An increase in the production was only observed in Piauí (51.9%), Pernambuco (31.8%) and Alagoas (18.0%). Just the same as in the North, the most traditional states in the production of roots in the Northeast Region, such as Bahia and Maranhão, reported the highest decreases in terms of volume of production.

In the Southeast Region, there was a decrease in the production in Espírito Santo and Rio de Janeiro, 13.6% and 20.0%, respectively, occurring, however, a hike of 1.0% in the production in São Paulo, an important center of production of roots and responsible for 5.8% of the total harvested in the country.

In the South Region, the drop in the production reached 1.7% versus the previous year, highlighted by Paraná (second biggest producer, with 17.2% of the national output), and with decreases of 24.9% in the planted area and of 9.7% in the area to be harvested.

WINTER CEREALS (GRAIN) – For the second consecutive year, the Brazilian production of wheat was influenced by the excessive rainfall during the final phase of the cultivation cycle. According to GCEA/PR, in Paraná, the estimated production was 12.7% smaller than in 2014, whereas in Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, according to the GCEA organizations of these states, there were reported decreases of 42.9% and 16.7%, respectively.

The estimate of the production of wheat in the country in 2015, after accounting the excessive rainfall in the South Region (89.8% of the national output), was 5.4% million metric tons, a drop of 13.4% versus the previous year. The reduction of the planted area in 2015 reached 12.7% versus 2014, with the area to be harvested decreasing 13.1% and the average yield dropping 0.3%.

The estimated production of oat in the country presented a hike of 4.8%, due, mainly, to the extension of the planting area in Rio Grande do Sul, which increased 26.2% in 2015 versus 2014. The expected production of this cereal for 2015 was 453.0 thousand tons.

Concerning barley, the drop in the production estimate in relation to the previous year was of 26.4%, with Paraná – the main producer of the country with a contribution of 71.0% to the national total – reducing its estimated production by 29.2% for 2015, and Rio Grande do Sul reporting losses of 25.0%. In Santa Catarina, it was recorded a rise of 251.4% in the planted area with this cereal, but the production increase, in relation to the previous year, should reach only 124.4%. The excessive rainfall affected the crops.

As to triticale, the rise in the estimated production stood at 75.6% versus the previous year, with São Paulo – the main producer, responsible for 60.1% of the expected total to be harvested – increasing by 280.2% the planted area and the area to be harvested with this cereal.


In 2016, harvest should grow 0.5%, reaching 210.7 million metric tons

In this third projection, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2016 was estimated at 210.7 million metric tons, 0.5% higher than the total obtained in the harvested crop in 2015, 1.1 million metric tons bigger, an increment of 0.7% in relation to the projection of November, therefore an indicative of a new record harvest for 2016.

This increment in the estimated production was related to the largest area which was expected to be harvested in the Northeast Region (4.7%), Southeast (1.2%) and South (0.8%), regions that registered adverse weather conditions in 2015. The Central-West Region also presented an extension of the area to be harvested in 2016 (1.5%), and a decrease in the volume of the expected production in relation to 2015 (-1.6%), based on estimates of less satisfactory productivity than that occurred in 2015, particularly for corn grain 2nd cop. The North Region estimated a smaller area intended to this group of products, a reduction of 2.6% versus the harvested area in 2015, resulting in the decrease of production expectation in comparison with the previous year of 5.2%, mainly influenced by the corn and rice crops.

Among the eight products with a analyzed projection for the next harvest, five reported positive changes in the production in relation to 2015: peanuts in the shell 1st crop (33.5%), coffee beans (arabica) (15.6%), coffee beans (canephora) (3.3%), bean seed 1st crop (16.7%) and soybeans grain (5.9%). The items that registered a negative change: upland cotton (4.5%), paddy rice (3.4%) and corn grain 1st crop (4.6%).

In relation to the area to be harvested in 2016 in comparison with the harvested area in 2015, it was registered a positive change in the items: upland cotton (0.2%), peanuts 1st crop (11.6%), coffea arabica (2.7%), beans 1st crop (7.3%) and soybeans (2.8%). The items that registered a negative change: rice (4.1%), coffea canephora (3.2%) and corn 1st crop (3.7%).

Average figures in the last five years with extreme values eliminated were used to compute the projection for the 2016 harvest. The figures estimated in the regions and states surveyed were added to the projections based on the information obtained in previous years, in the case of Federation Units with no initial estimates.

UPLAND COTTONSEED – The expectation of the planted area for 2016 harvest is of 1.1 million hectares, a stable rate in relation to 2015. Even with the planted area practically unchanged, the estimated production is 4.5% smaller than that reported in the previous year. This fact is due to the reduction of the average yield estimate, whose forecast was 4.7% smaller than that in the previous harvest. In absolute numbers, 3.9% million metric tons of upland cotton were expected, with an average yield of 3,726 kg/hectares.

Mato Grosso and Bahia, accounted for 87.4% of the national output and reported unchanged data in relation to the previous projection. The estimate provided by Mato Grosso showed a rise of the planted area to 611.6 thousand hectares, 3.3% higher than that in the previous harvest. However, with the delay of the summer rain, it is expected an average yield of 3,844 kg/hectares, 5.4% smaller than that in the 2015 harvest. GCEA/MT expected a production of 2.4 million metric tons, a drop of 2.3% in relation to the previous year.

PADDY RICE – In this third projection of the production of paddy rice for the 2016 harvest, it is expected a production of 11.9 million metric tons, in a planted area of 2.1 million hectares, smaller, respectively, 2.9% and 9.2%, when compared with the November’s figures. Conversely, the average yield of 5,781 kg/ha stood 7.0% higher. In relation to the previous crop, the production and the planted area were smaller, respectively, 3.4% and 5.1% and the average yield expected higher by 0.7%.

Rio Grande do Sul, the biggest national producer, should contribute with about 70.9% of the production of this cereal, or 8,433,761 metric tons, in a planted area of 1,087,023 hectares, smaller, respectively, 2.8% and 3.6% when compared with the estimate for 2015. Conversely, the average yield expected of 7,759 kg/ha stood 0.3% higher.

COFFEE (beans) – After two consecutive years of unfavorable weather conditions in the main producing Federation Unit of coffee, an excessively warm and dry weather in 2014 in São Paulo and in the South of Minas Gerais, and in 2015, the droughts in Espírito Santo and in the cerrado region of Minas Gerais, it is expected a partial recovery in the production of coffee, and to close 2016 with a growth of 12.5% versus the previous year. The country should harvest a crop of 2,984,433 metric tons, or 49.7 million 60kg sacks.

The production estimate for 2016, in this first projection of coffea arabica, performed in December 2015, reached 2,300,186 metric tons, or 38.3 million 60 kg sacks, an increase of 15.6% in relation to 2015, with a highlight in the average yield, which presented a growth of 12.5%.

In Minas Gerais, the main producer, the production growth reached 21.4% and should pass to 1,609,256 metric tons in 2016. In São Paulo and Espírito Santo, the production growth in 2016 should reach 6.9% and 21.2%, respectively.

Concerning coffea canephora, the production estimate for 2016 reached 684,247 metric tons, or 11.4 million 60kg sacks, a hike of 3.3% in relation to 2015. The estimated planted area presented a drop of 15.7%, whereas the average yield increased by 6.7%.

The production recovery was more intense in Espírito Santo, main producer of this kind of coffee, which in 2015 faced droughts. Despite a drop of 19.0% in the planted area, the average yield should increase 12.6%, reaching 1,747 kg/ha.

This was the first estimated production of coffee in the country for 2016, being accomplished according to the level of flowering and of pinheads of the crops in several producing municipalities. The surveys were carried out at the municipal level, mainly, through meetings of the Committee of Agricultural Statistics, with a participation of technicians, representatives of producers, cooperatives and agricultural bodies of the states.

BEANS 1st CROP (grain) – It is expected 1.6 million metric tons of beans for 2016 harvest. This rate surpassed the 2015 harvest by 16.7%. The expectation of improvement was a result of the national average yield, which was 8.7% higher than the result of the previous year, as well as the largest area to be harvested (7.3%).

Paraná remained as the main national producer of the first crop of beans. The estimated production in the state was 325.8 thousand tonnes, 1.9% lower when compared with the result of 2015 and 3.1% smaller in the comparison with the previous projection.

After presenting an estimated production of 226.4 thousand tonnes, Ceará rose to the second position among the biggest national producers. The high production was a result of the improvement of the rainfall in the state.

Minas Gerais remained as the third biggest national producer. It was estimated that 200.7 thousand tonnes of beans will be produced in the first crop. Even with the delay of the rainfall, it was expected a favorable weather for the 2016 harvest in the comparison with the previous year, and consequently a rise in the average yield by 20.9%, standing at 1,340 kg/hectares.

CORN GRAIN 1ST CROP (grain) – The current projection presented one more decrease in the production of corn grain 1st crop. This production decline was a consequence of the valorization of soybeans, a direct competitor for planting areas. For this first harvest it were expected 28.1 million metric tons, 4.6% smaller than that reached in 2015 and 2.4% smaller than the previous estimated projection. The planted area decreased 7.4% when compared with the result of 2015 and 2.0% in comparison with the data of the second projection.

Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná already accounted the excessive rainfall in their average yields in the last quarter of 2015. GCEA/RS estimated an average yield of 6,409 kg/hectares, whereas GCEA/PR estimated 8,601 kg/hectares, smaller, respectively, 1.8% and 0.5% when compared with 2015. The production of corn in both states was also negatively influenced by the decrease of the planted area. It was expected that the state reduced its area by 12.9% and the state of Paraná by 20.9%. The consequence of the decreases previously observed was the reduction of the production by 14.6% in Rio Grande do Sul and by 21.3% in Paraná, when compared with the 2015 output.  It was estimated a production of 4.8% million metric tons in Rio Grande do Sul and 3.7 million metric tons in Paraná.

SOYBEANS (grain) – A new production record of soybeans for 2016 was pointed out in this third projection. The estimated production of 102.7 million metric tons surpassed the 2015 production by 5.9%. The rise in the production was a result of the valorization of soybeans in the domestic market.

Mato Grosso remained as the national leader in the production of legumes. With an expected area of 9.2 million hectares and the average yield at 3,106 kg/ha, it was estimated a production of 28.5 million metric tons in the state, 2.5% higher than that of 2015.

Paraná reported an estimate of production of 18.3 million metric tons, 6.7% higher when compared with the 2015 production. The crops of soybeans had already been planted and presenting a good appearance, according to GCEA/PR. The predominant development stages were: vegetative (35%), flowering (40%) and fruiting (25%).

In Rio Grande do Sul, it was expected a production of 16.2 million metric tons, 3.4% higher than that of 2015. The estimate of a planted area of 5.5 million hectares surpassed the area of 2015 by 3.9%. The excessive rainfall was being accounted in the average yield and it is expected a slight fall of 0.5%, adding up to 2,967 kg/hectares.

Surveys relative to cereals, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency (CONAB), an agency of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October 2007.