In the seasonally-unadjusted series, the overall industry expanded 0.5% in June 2017 compared with the same month a year ago, the second consecutive positive figure, yet less intense than that posted in the previous month (4.1%). The industrial sector registered an increase of 0.5% in the cumulative index in the first six months of 2017. Having retreated 1.9% in June 2017, the annualized rate – cumulative indicator in the last 12 months – maintained the reduction in the pace of decline started in June 2016 (-9.7%). The complete publication of the Monthly Survey of Industry - PIM-PF can be accessed here.

12 of 24 industrial sectors shrink between May and June

The industrial activity repeated in June 2017 the same level registered last May, though with a predominance of negative results, since 12 out of the 24 sectors surveyed reduced the production. The main negative influences were reported by motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-3.9%), pharm-chemicals and pharmaceuticals (-9.2%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-1.7%), the first one returning part of the cumulative advance of 13.0% in April and May; the second one stepping up the drop of 7.2% recorded in the previous month; and the third one posting a cumulative loss of 4.0% in the last two months and offsetting the advance of 1.8% reported last April. Other relevant negative contributions to the overall industry came from computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-4.9%), other transportation equipment (-6.8%) and fabricated metal products (-2.0%). Among the nine sectors that increased the output this month, the most important performance for the overall average was registered by food products (4.5%), recording the second consecutive positive figure and a cumulative expansion of 7.8% in this period. Other positive contributions to the overall figure came from mining and quarrying industries (1.3%), machinery and equipment (2.0%) and beverages (1.7%). It is worth highlighting that these activities also posted positive rate last May: 0.3%, 2.0% and 1.3%, respectively.

Having retreated 6.0%, still comparing with the immediately previous month, durable consumer goods registered the sharpest drop in June 2017 and offset part of the advance of 9.5% in April and May. After increasing 0.9% last May, the sector producing semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.5%) also recorded a negative rate this month, when it interrupted three consecutive months of declining production and recorded a cumulative loss of 3.4%. On the other hand, the segments of capital goods (0.3%) and intermediate goods (0.1%) reported positive figures in June 2017 and posted the third consecutive month of increasing production and a cumulative gain of 6.4% and 2.6%, respectively.

Still in the seasonally-adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the overall industry increased 0.8% in the quarter ended in June 2017, against the level of the previous month, and strengthened the growth pace over that of May (0.2%). Among the major economic categories, still in relation to the marginal movement of this index, capital goods (2.1%) recorded the sharpest advance this month and kept the the upward trend started last February. The sectors producing durable consumer goods (0.9%) and intermediate goods (0.8%) also registered positive figures in June 2017, the former recording the third consecutive expansion and posting a cumulative gain of 2.3% in this period; and the latter interrupting a predominantly negative behavior since last March. Conversely, the segment of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.1%) registered the only negative result this month and maintained the downward trend started in March 2017.

Industry advances 0.5% over June 2016

Compared with June 2016, the industrial sector expanded 0.5% in June 2017, recording positive figures in three out of the four major economic categories, 13 out of the 26 sectors, 38 out of the 79 groups and 46.1% of the 805 products surveyed. It is worth mentioning that June 2017 (21 days) had one less business day than the same month in the previous year (22). Among the activities, food products (7.2%) exerted the biggest positive influence on the overall average, leveraged, to a major extent, by items crystallized and VHP sugar. Other relevant positive contributions to the overall industry came from mining and quarrying industries (4.5%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (6.6%), machinery and equipment (5.8%), tobacco products (30.0%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (10.9%) and pulp, paper and paper products (5.1%). Among the 12 activities that reduced their output, still comparing with June 2016, the major influences on the overall industry were reported by coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-5.3%), pharm-chemicals and pharmaceuticals (-18.7%), other chemicals (-6.5%), other transportation equipment (-22.4%), printing and reproduction of recorded media (-33.1%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-10.7%) and non-metallic mineral products (-4.6%).

Still comparing with the same month a year ago, durable consumer goods (5.0%) recorded the sharpest expansion among the major economic categories in June 2017. The segments of intermediate goods (0.9%) and capital goods (0.3%) also posted positive results this month. Having reduced 1.8%, the sector producing semi and non-durable consumer goods registered the only negative rate.

The segment of durable consumer goods advanced 5.0% in the monthly index of June 2017, the eighth consecutive positive rate in this type of comparison, though lower than that reported last May (20.8%). In June, this sector was particularly leveraged by the increase in the manufacture of cars (11.3%) and brown goods (16.7%). Conversely, motorcycles (-28.0%), white goods (-1.8%), other household appliances (-10.6%) and furniture (-1.6%) recorded the most important negative impacts.

The sector producing intermediate goods rose 0.9% in June 2017, the second positive rate in a row, though less intense than that registered last May (2.9%). The June result was mainly explained by the advances in the products associated with the activities of food products (16.4%), mining and quarrying industries (4.5%), pulp, paper and paper products (5.9%), machinery and equipment (7.6%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (2.2%), rubber and plastic products (1.9%) and textiles (2.6%), whereas the negative pressure was recorded by coke, petroleum products and biofuels(-10.5%), other chemicals (-6.5%), non-metallic mineral products (-4.7%) and fabricated metal products (-2.5%). It is also worth mentioning the negative figures posted by groups of typical inputs for civil construction (-6.0%), which marked the fortieth consecutive decline in this type of comparison; and by packaging (-1.0%), which remained falling for the third month in a row.

Still comparing with the same month a year ago, the segment of capital goods registered a positive change of 0.3% in June 2017, after increasing 8.1% last May. Concerning the contribution to this month´s index, this segment was influenced by the advances of most of its groups, highlighted by capital goods for mixed use (11.1%) and for construction (23.0%). The other positive rates were reported by capital goods for agriculture (0.7%) and for industrial use (0.4%). On the other hand, the negative impacts were reported by the groups of capital goods for electricity (-12.1%) and for transportation equipment (-1.6%).

The production of semi and non-durable consumer goods retreated 1.8% in June 2017, after expanding 1.7% last May. This month´s performance was explained, to a large extent, by the drop in the group of non-durable (-7.9%), mainly pressed by the reduced manufacture of medicines. The sub-sectors of semi-durable (-2.3%) and of food and beverages for domestic consumption (-0.9%) also posted negative figures this month. Conversely, the group of fuels (6.5%) registered the only positive rate in this category, leveraged by the increasing production of ethyl alcohol and motor gasoline.

Industry changes 0.2% in second quarter 2017

Having advanced 0.2% in the second quarter of 2017, the industrial sector maintained the positive behavior recorded in the first three months of the year (1.0%), when it interrupted 11 consecutive quarters of negative rates in this kind of comparison. The reduced pace of the overall industry between the first (1.0%) and the second quarter (0.2%), both of them compared with the same periods last year, was noticed in three out of the four major economic categories, highlighted by capital goods (from 4.8% to 1.2%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (from 0.5% to -2.9%). The sector producing durable consumer goods (from 11.1% to 9.0%) also reduced the pace between the two periods, while intermediate goods (from -0.3% to 0.2%) slightly increased its dynamism and interrupted 14 consecutive quarter of negative results.

Industry grows 0.5% in first semester of 2017

Compared with the same period in the previous year, the January-June 2017 cumulative index for the industrial sector registered 0.5%, recording positive figures in two out of the four major economic categories, 13 out of the 26 sectors, 41 out of the 79 groups and 51.1% of the 805 products surveyed. Among the activities, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (11.7%) and mining and quarrying industries (6.0%) exerted the biggest positive influences on the industry average, leveraged, to a large extent, by items cars, vehicles for transportation of goods, tractor-trucks and car pieces, in the former; and by iron ores, crude petroleum oil and natural gas, in the latter. Other relevant positive contributions to the overall industry came from computer equipment, electronic and optical products (18.6%), basic metals (3.6%), wearing apparel and accessories (5.1%) and machinery and equipment (2.4%). Among the 13 activities that reduced their output, coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-7.6%) and food products (-2.2%) were the biggest negative contributions to the overall industry, pressed, to a large extent, by items diesel fuel and ethyl alcohol, in the former; and crystallized and VHP sugar, ice creams, popsicles, frozen beef, concentrated orange juice and animal food, in the latter. It is also worth highlighting the negative figures coming from electrical machinery and apparatus (-7.4%), pharm-chemicals and pharmaceuticals (-6.8%), other transportation equipment (-11.6%), non-metallic mineral products (-3.9%) and printing and reproduction of recorded media (-14.2%).

Among the major economic categories, the profile of results for the first six months of 2017 had a greater dynamism for the segments of durable consumer goods (10.0%) and capital goods (2.9%), leveraged, to a large extent, by the increasing manufacture of cars (17.1%) and household appliances (11.2%), in the former; and of capital goods for agriculture (19.6%), for construction (23.8%) and for mixed use (11.5%), in the latter. It is worth mentioning the influence of the low comparison basis in the two big groups, since these segments recorded drops of 22.2% and 18.8%, respectively, in the January-June 2016 period. Conversely, the sectors producing semi and non-durable consumer goods (-1.2%) and intermediate goods (-0.1%) posted negative rates in the cumulative index in 2017, especially pressed by the reduced manufacture of products associated with the activities of food products (frozen, chilled or fresh beef, concentrated orange juice, ice creams and popsicles), pharm-chemicals and pharmaceuticals (medicines) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (ethyl alcohol), in the former; and of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (diesel fuel), in the latter.