The Producer Price Index recorded a change of -0.21% in June in comparison, and was below the 0.10% recorded in May. Among the 24 activities of mining and quarrying industry, 15 recorded positive price changes, the same number as in the previous month. The cumulative index in the year was -0.30%, against -0.08% recorded in May. The cumulative indicator in 12 months was 1.52%, versus 2.24% a month ago.

The Producer Price Index (IPP) of Mining and Quarrying and Manufacturing Industries measures the price evolution of products 'at the factory gate', without taxes and freight, and comprises information of the major economic categories, i. e., capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer goods (durable and semi- and non-durable). The complete publication of the IPP can be accessed here.

In June 2017, the change of prices (-0.21%), compared to the result of May, had an impact on the main economic categories: capital goods, -0.88%; intermediate goods, -0.36%; and consumer goods, -0.24%. Durable consumer goods recorded a change of -0.01%; semi and non-durable goods, of -0.32%. 

In the industry overall, -0.21% the results in terms of the Major Economic Categories were: 0.08 percentage points for capital goods; -0.20 percentage points for intermediate goods and -0.08 percentage points for consumer goods.  In the case of consumer goods, the change by -0.09 percentage points resulted from price changes observed in semi-and non-durable consumer goods with no influence from durable consumer goods.

In terms of the cumulative index in the year (current month against December in the previous year), the price changes of industry, until June, had cumulative results of -0.30%, being 2.01% the  change of capital goods (a contribution of 0.17 percentage points.), -0.07% of intermediate goods (-0.04 percentage points) and -1.20% in consumer goods (-0.43 p.p).  In this last example, the increase was influenced by 0.41 p.p in products of durable consumer goods and 0.81 p.p by semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods.

Regarding the annual rate, industrial prices reached 1.52% in June, having recorded the following changes: capital goods, 3.07% (0.26 p.p.); intermediate goods, 1.05% (0.59 p.p.); and consumer goods, 1.88% (0.66 p.p.), with a 0.41 p.p contribution from durable consumer goods and 0.26 p. p from semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods.

15 of the 24 industrial activities recorded rise of prices 

In June, 15 of the 23 activities surveyed recorded positive price changes, the same number as in the previous year.  

The four main changes observed in June/2017 came from products belonging to the following industrial activities: mining and quarrying industry (-6.22%), pulp and paper (3.39%), petroleum refining and ethanol products (-2.14%) and tobacco (2.00%).

In terms of influence, in the comparison between June/2017 and May/2017 (-0.21%), the highlights were: petroleum refining and ethanol products (-0.22 p.p.), mining and quarrying industry (-0.21 p.p.), pulp and paper (0.12 p.p.) and food products (-0.09 p.p.).

In June/2017, the cumulative indicator in the year (June/2017 versus December 2016) reached -0.30%, against -0.08% in May. Accounting for the biggest percent changes of this indicator in June/2017 are: mining and quarrying industry (-14.94%), basic metals (7.24%), non-metallic minerals (-6.76%) and pulp and paper (6.17%).

The most influential sectors to this indicator were: food products (-1.01 p.p.), mining and quarrying industry (-0.54 p.p.), basic metals (0.53 p.p.) and motor vehicles (0.31 p.p.).

See below the four sectors which accounted for the main contributions in June 2017, in the three comparisons: monthly, cumulative in the year and cumulative in 12 months.

Mining and quarrying industry: in the month of June, the prices of the sector recorded a change of -6.22%, against the May figure. That was the biggest change recorded for the monthly indicator, with significant influence (-0.21 p.p) on thr overall index (-0.21%).

The cumulative index in the year was -14.94%, the main decrease recorded among the activities surveyed in the period. The cumulative change in the year of mining and quarrying industry was a highlight among the activities surveyed in the period. The cumulative change in the year was the second main influence on the overall indicstor of industry (-0.54 p.p. in -0,30%). 

The comparison with the same moth a year ago shows a change of 1.17%.

Among the most significant products in terms of indicators in themonth, the highlight was “iron ore”.

Food products: in June 2017, the average price change of the sector was -0.42%, the fifth negative result in the year, which contributed to the cumulative figure of -4.71% in the year. In the annual comparison, the change of -2.12% between June 2017 and June 2016 was the smallest since the beginning of the survey. 

Besides accounting for some of the main contributions to the calculation of the index, this month Food products accounted for the biggest cumulative results in the yer and in 12 months, in terms of contribution to the overall index (-1.01 p.p. in -0,30%), and -0.45 p.p. in 1.52%.

Among the products inthis subesctor, one stands out in terms of both change and influence (“sterilized milk/UHT/long life”). In terms of influential products, we can also mention "crystsllized sugar" and "frozen poultry met and giblets", with negative results and "crude oil, whether or not degummed” with positive ones.

These four products, which represent the most influential changes, accounted for an impact of -0.47 p.p. in the change of -0.42%. So, the other 39 products were responsible for the positive change of 0.05 p.p.

The falling prices of sugar are adequate for the beginning of the harvest, but also reflect the trend observed in the foreign market. 

In terms of cumulative results in 12 months, it is important to mention soybean products, mainly "residue from soybean extraction”, accounting, together, for almost 25% of the weight of the activity, pegged to the dollar and to the dollar exchange rate (depreciation against the real: 3.8% in the last 12 months); being that group the min responsible for the prices of the activity in 12 months (-2.12%).

Petroleum refining and ethanol products: in June, the prices of the sector recorded a change of -2.14%, against the previous month – the fourth negative change recorded in the fist six months of the year. With the third main contribution to the overall index, the change of prices in the sector, the third highest one for mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries, main absolute rate recorded in mining and quarrying industry, was the main result against figures in the previous year (-0.22 p.p.).

The main highlights in the result of the sector in the month, with lowest prices, were: “Ethyl-alcohol (dry or hydrated)”, “Automotive gasoline”, “Naphthas” and “Diesel and other fuel oils”.

This movement towrds the reduction of prices results mainly from the new domestic price policy regarding rerfined petroleum products. They area responsible for the lowest prices, and the competition with ethanol in the fuel market led to a bigger availability of inputs affecting the prices of this product (“harvest effect”).

I the year, the sector had a cumulative change of -1.81% in prices, opposite to the result of May. Versus the same month in the previous year, the prices of this activity recorded a change of 0.86%.

Other chemicals: in June, the chemicsl industry recorded a positive price change of 0.82% in relation to May, the eighth positive change in the last ten months, having generated a cumulative change of prices of 3.00% in the year. That, however, was not enough to reverse the fall of prices of -1.86% cumulative in the last 12 months. In a long-term analysis, the fall of prices is also observed as we compare the change between December 2013 (base-month for the survey) and October 2015, an average change of prices of 17.48% (peak of the series when the analyses considers index-numbers), whereas between October 2015 and June 2017 there was a fall of prices by 12.62%.

The chemical industry, especially of basic petrochemicals and intermmediate products for plasticizers, resins and fibers, depends on internationl value, electricity-related costs and the imports of products, mainly those related to intermmediate substances for fertilizers. The dollar exchange rate (with depreciation of the American currency against the real, 3.8% in the last 12 months) and the prices of naphtha, a highlight in terms of change and influence, were a highlight due to its price reduction. 

It is interesting to highlight that the four most influentil products in the month-on-month comparison accounted for a positive result of 0.76 p.p. in the month, that is, the other 28 products also contributed to the result of 0.82% in the month.

Basic metals: a comparison of the prices of June 2017 and May 2017 shows a negative change of -0.70%, the first negative result ion the year. That way, the sector had a cumulative figure of 7.24% in the year, and in the last 12 months, of 13.30%. In both cases, the main positive changes of price in the index affected the 24 activities surveyed. In June 2016, the oposite had taken place,  and the sector of basic metals accounted for the lowest positive change among all the activities in terms of the cumulative index in 12 months. 

In relation to the products that influenced month-on-month results, three of the four main results of the activity were: “carbon steel ingots, blocks, rods or plates”, with a positive influence, and “cold carbon steel bobbins, uncotaed” and “hot carbon steel bobbins, uncoated”, with a negative influence. Among the 22 products selected for the survey, the four highlights accounted for -0.62 p.p. in terms of montlhly change, that is, the other 18 products had a contribution of -0.08 p.p.

Considering the main influences in the analysis of the cumulative index in the year and in 12 months, the four highlights , with the biggest weight in the activity, were: “unwrought non-alloy aluminum”, “hot carbon steel bobbins, uncoated”, “carbon steel ingots, blocks, rods or plates” and “cold carbon steel bobbins, uncotaed”, all of them with positive results.

The behavior of the sector is influenced by the combination of results of the gorups of steel products and no-ferrous material (copper and aluminium), which, in turn, had opposite bahaviors. The first one, related to the steel product has had good recovery in terms of price. The second presengts resulta that are related to the prices of ingternational stocks and also the dollar appreciation.

Motor vehicles: in June, the monthly change recorded by the sector was 0.12%, against the figure in the previous month. That was the eleventh consecutive positive change of the activity, which has recorded positive results in the indicator versus that of August 2016. As a result the cumulative change in the year reached 2.90%. In terms of comparison, in June 2016, the cumulative figure was 1.36%. In the last 12 months, the sector had a cumulative change of 5.47%, the biggest result for this indicstor since February 2016.

Besides being one of the main sectors in the calculation of the overall indicator 9second to food products, only), the activity of motor vehicles was also a highlight, among all the sectors surveyed, in terms of other three indicators: the third biggest cumulative change in the last 12 months; the fourth main influence in the cumulative change in the year (0.31 p.p. in -0.30%); and the second main influence on the cumulative change in the last 12 months (0.58 p.p. in 1.52%).

Among the four main products in terms of the month-on-month indicator, three had a positive impact on the index (“tractor-truck for trailers and semi-trailers”, “bus trunks” and “pieces for the engine of motor vehicles”). Only one among the main products accounted for a negative contribution to the indicator: “passenger cars, gasoline, ethanol or biofuels, of any capacity” (the main contribution to the activity, stopping an average change of prices in the sector). The influence of these four products which had an impact on the monthly change of 0.15 p.p. in 0.12%, that is, the other 21 products accounted for -0.03 p.p.

In relation to the cumulative index in the year, the four biggest contributions to the index had a positive impact on it, buit only two of them are common among the indicators: “passenger cars, gasoline, ethanol or biofuels, of any capacity” and "bus trunks”. The other products were: “diesel truck with load capacity above 5t” and “chassis with engine for buses or for trucks”.

Comunicação Social
27 de julho de 2017