The eleventh estimate for the national output of cereals, legumes and oilseedsⁱ amounted to 194.5 million metric tonsⁱⁱ, above that of 2013 (188.2 million metric tons) and 0.5% above the October 2014 estimate.The estimated area to be harvested is 56.4 million hectares, with increase of 6.7% in comparison with that harvested in 2013 (52.8 million hectares), and of 0.4% versus that of the previous month. Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, and, together, represented 91.2% of the national output estimate, accounting for 84.9% of the area to be harvested. In relation to 2013, there were increases of 935 hectares in the area planted with rice, and of 8.4% of that planted with soybeans. Regarding corn, there there was decrease of 0.1%. With reference to output, there were increases of 3.3% for rice, 5.6% for soybeans and decrease of 1.9% for corn, in comparison with 2013 figures. The complete publication is available at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

Among the Major Regions, the volume of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented the following distribution: Central-West Region, 83.1 million tonnes; South, 72.2 million tonnes; Southeast, 17.9 million tonnes; Northeast, 15.8 million tonnes; and North, 5.5 million tonnes.

Compared with the previous harvest, increases are recorded for the North, 10.6%, Northeast, 31.9% and Central-West Region, 5.9%. South and Southeast presented, respectively, a decrease of 1.2% and 9.3% in relation to the prior year's production.  According to this estimate for 2014, Mato Grosso led the national production of cereal grains with a contribution of 24.3%, followed by Paraná, with 18.4% and Rio Grande do Sul, with 15.5%. These states together represent 58.2% of the estimated total production.

November's estimate in relation to October

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of November the highlights were the changes in the following production estimates in comparison with October: sorghum (18.3%), beans 3rd crop (4.4%), potato 2nd crop (1.4%), corn 2nd crop (1.4%), upland cotton (0.9%), wheat (-0.7%), beans 2nd crop (-1.8%) and oranges (-11.8%).

UPLAND COTTONSEED – Cotton finishes this harvest period reaching a production of 4.289.612 tonnes. This figure is 0.9% above last month's. The main increase comes from Goiás after the State Supervision of Agriculture of IBGE increased the planted and harvested area at 17.6% and the yield at 0.4% making the output reach 263,539 metric tons, which represents 18.2% more than in October.

POTATOES - 2nd CROP- The estimated output grew 1.4% in November in comparison with the previous month, due to the increases of 1.1% in the harvested area and of 0.3% in the average yield. In São Paulo, the Supervision of Agriculture of IBGE increased the production data of the tuber at 8.2% this month, due to the rise of 6.7% in the harvested area estimate and of 1.3% in the average yield, increasing the production estimate from 168,679 to 182,481 tonnes.  

BEAN SEEDS 2nd CROP - The estimate of the national production of beans 2nd crop totals, according to November's surveys, 1,352,088 tonnes, 1.8% lower than October's estimate. The planted area of 1,332,658 hectares is 0.3% higher than it was in the last estimate. The two biggest producers, Paraná and Mato Grosso, repeated October's data.

BEANS 3rd CROP - Following the 0.7% rise in the estimate of the average yield and of 3.7% in the planted area, the production forecast advanced 4.4% staying at 470,579 tonnes. Minas Gerais is the biggest national producer in the 3rd crop with 43.7% of the national production, even when field investigation indicates a 0.2% reduction in the planted area and of 0.3% in the production.

ORANGES - Severe droughts in São Paulo made the yield fall, reducing 16.4%, from 31,097 to 26,000 kg/ha. Because of that, the state production shrank to 10,193,794 tonnes. As São Paulo is the main orange producer of the country, the national data were affected. The national production decreased 11.8% in relation to October, turning out to be 14,828,280 tonnes, whereas the average yield reduced 11.9%, becoming 22,788 kg/ha.

CORN GRAIN 2nd CROP - The national production of corn 2nd crop increased 1.4% in relation to October, turning out to be 48,317,601 tonnes. The increase happened after the Supervision of Agriculture of IBGE/Goiás increased the planted and harvested area by 10.9%, totaling 1,121,097 hectares. The average yield of the state fell 1.3% becoming 6,244 tonnes/hectares, whereas the production accounted for 6,999,950 tonnes.

SORGHUM GRAIN - TOTAL - The estimate production of sorghum jumped to 18.3% in the month when compared to October, due to the rises of 11.3% in the harvested area and of 6.3% in the average yield, moving from 1,910,500 to 2,259,753 tonnes. Goiás, the main producer and responsible for 52.0% of the country production, revised up the estimate of the planted area by 31.7%, of the average yield by 6.4% and of the production by 40.1%.

WHEAT GRAIN – The estimate production of the month of November for the crop in 2014 is 7,419,057 tonnes, with an expected average yield of 2,662 kg/ha, lower, respectively, by 0.7% and 1.3%, when compared to the previous month data. On the other hand, the planted and harvested area are 0.7% bigger.

November's estimate in relation to 2013 production

Among the twenty-six main products, sixteen presented positive percentage changes in the production estimate in relation to the previous year: upland cotton seed (26.0%), peanuts in the shell – 2nd crop (38.8%), paddy rice (3.3%), potatoes - 3rd crop (31.5%), cacao nut (9.6%), coffee beans (canephora) (23.7%), onions (6.7%), barley grain (3.8%), bean seeds - 1st crop (31.5%), bean seeds - 2nd crop (2.1%), castor beans (216.4%), cassava (11.1%), corn grain 2nd crop (4.2%), soybean grain (5.6%), sorghum grain (9.0%) and wheat grain (29.8%). With a negative change, there were ten products: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (14.8%), oat grain (1.9%), potatoes - 1st crop (0.8%), potatoes - 2nd crop (5.0%), coffee beans - arabica (15.8%), sugarcane (6.3%), bean seeds - 3rd crop (9.6%), oranges (8.9%), corn - 1st crop (10.1%) and triticale grain (2.3%).

The most significant increments, in absolute numbers, surpassing 1.0 million tonnes, in relation to the 2013 crop, occurred to the following products: soybeans (4,610,673 t), cassava (2,347,138 t), corn grain 2nd crop (1,936,378 t) and wheat (1,701,254 t). In this annual comparison, the highest negative change, in absolute numbers, was seen for sugarcane (-46,494,670 t), corn - 1st crop (-3,439,591 t) and orange (-1,456,196 t).

UPLAND COTTON SEED – The expected production for upland cotton for the year 2014 is of 4.3 million of metric tons, 26.0% higher than 2013's harvest. This increment in the production is due, to a great extent, to the domestic and foreign market.

PADDY RICE - The national rice crop of 12.2 million of tonnes has been already harvested. This production surpasses by 3.3% the one obtained in 2013 (11,758,663), and the crops present a good average yield (5,171 kg/ha), influenced by the favorable weather conditions and by the high levels of the irrigation sources in the South Region.

COFFEE BEANS – The production estimate of coffee for the country accounts for 2.7 million tonnes or 45.2 million sacks (60 kg sack), 31.9 million sacks or 70.5% of the total arabica and 13.3 million sacks or 29.5% of the total canephora. Thus, the harvest forecast for coffea arabica  is of 1,913,080 tonnes, 15.8% lower than 2013's estimate. For coffea canephora, the forecast is of a increase in the production of 23.7% in relation to 2013, with the production estimate at 800,999 tonnes.

SUGARCANE - The national sugarcane production for 2014 is 6.3% lower in relation to 2013, reaching 692.8 million tonnes. The areas to be harvested in the year present an increase of 1.1%. The average yield has moved from 75,166 kg/ha, obtained in 2013, to 69,651 kg/ha in 2014, a drop of 7.3%. The Southeast concentrates 62.6% of the national production and was negatively influenced by the high temperatures and scarce rainfall, but it was in the Northeast that the biggest increase was seen, in absolute term of production volume, when compared to 2013 - higher than 2.5 million tonnes.

BEAN SEEDS - The production estimate of beans in 2014, together with the three harvests of the product, is of 3.3 million tonnes, an increase of 10.9% in relation to the previous year, offsetting the two consecutive years of droughts, notably in the Northeast Region.  The low offer of the product increased the price of beans, which stimulated the planting in 2014. The rise in the production follows the positive changes in the estimates of the planted area (11.1%) and the harvested area (12.3%), even though the average yield (1,024) decreased 1.3% over the figure obtained in 2013. The first crop of the product, estimated at 1,434,813 tonnes, contributes with 44,0% to the total production. The second crop, 1,352,088 tonnes, contributes with 41.5% and the third crop, of 470,579, with 14.5% of the production, with changes in relation to 2013 of, respectively, 31.5%, 2.1% and –9.6%.

ORANGES - The national production of oranges is estimated at 14.8 million tonnes, the lowest production obtained in the last 25 years of the survey of Municipal Agricultural Production  (IBGE-PAM), also taking into account the information of the LSPA of 2013 and 2014. The harvested area of 650,692 hectares is also the lowest. Over 2013, the production is 8.9% lower, in a harvested area 8.1% smaller and with a negative change of the average yield of 1.0%. The total area planted suffered a loss of 69,011 hectares, in this comparison.

CASSAVA (roots) - The production estimate of cassava of 23.6 million tonnes is 11.1% higher than the one obtained in 2013. All the Major Regions had increases in the production estimates in relation to 2013. The biggest increase in the production volume was in the Northeast Region, 834,516 tonnes higher, in absolute terms, in the annual comparison.

CORN GRAIN – The reduction of 1.9% in the estimate of the national corn production was influenced, in a definite way, by the 10.1% drop of the production of corn - 1st crop. The area planted with corn - 1st crop fell 5.4% in Brazil due to the preference to plant soybeans, since the prices of this legume were more compensating at the time of the summer crop planting. Unfavorable weather conditions also interfered with this first crop, with an estimate of harvested area 4.6% smaller and average yield of 5,042 kg/ha, 5.7% lower then 2013’s. As to corn 2nd crop, the production estimate is 4.2% higher in relation to that of 2013. This second period of planting has been becoming the major one for corn grain, for it is the third year in a row that the production volume of corn 2nd crop surpasses that of the 1st crop. In 2014 the contribution of corn 2nd crop to the national production is of 61.1%.

SOYBEANS (in grain) - The national production of soybeans, record in 2014, reached 86.3 million tonnes, growing 5.6% in relation to 2013. This high was pushed by the area increment in the biggest producing states, specially Mato Grosso, which increased 677,053 hectares in its soybean area, 8.5% larger in relation to 2013. Paraná, the second biggest national producer, despite having increased the planted area by 263,035 hectares (5.5%), faced unfavorable weather conditions during the growth of the culture, reducing, thus, the average yield and the production 11.9% and 7.0%, respectively.

WHEAT GRAIN - The forecast is that Brazil harvests the greatest corn crop in 2014, totaling 7.4 million tonnes. The expected growth of production, in relation to 2013, is of 29.8%, with a rise of 26.0% in the planted area, 26.1% in the harvested area and 2.9% in the average yield. The highlight is Paraná crops recovery, expecting a production of almost 3.8 million tonnes, 101.5% more than in 2013.

Crop forecast for 2015

In the second prospect, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2015, was estimated at 202.1 million tonnes, 3.9% above the crop harvested in 2014. This increase is due to the higher productions estimated for the Northeast (+18.8%), Southeast (+10.4%) and South Regions (+5.2%), because of the fact that producers increased by 10.5% the production estimate of soybeans - a reflex of the rises of 2.9% in the area to be harvested and of 7.4% in the average yield, totaling 9.1 million tonnes above 2014 crops.

Among the six products of major importance, analyzed for the next summer harvest, five present positive production changes: beans - 1st crop (11.5%), peanut (in the shell) – 1st crop (18.6%), soybeans (10.5%), paddy rice 2.9% and corn - 1st crop (1.6%). Just upland cotton registered drop in the production (-7.5%). In the relation to the area forecast, highs are expected for beans - 1st crop (6.1%), soybeans (2.9%), peanuts - 1st crop (0.5%), rice (0.3%) and corn - 1st crop (0.6%); for upland cotton, a negative change is expected (-7.9%).

UPLAND COTTONSEED - The expected production of cotton in this second prospect shows increase of 1.4% in relation to the previous month, totaling 3,967,748 tonnes. However, this value stays 7.5% below the figure registered by the 2014 crop, which was 4,289,612 tonnes. The production of the first crop will be carried out mainly by producers who need to honor previous contracts. 

PADDY RICE - The second prospect of production (November 2014) for the 2015 crop of paddy rice is of a production of 12,502,165 tonnes, with an expected average yield of 5,307kg/ha, respectively, 2.9% and 2.6%, higher than the ones of the previous crop. Conversely, the planted area of 2,356,010 hectares shrank 1,163 hectares.

BEANS 1st CROP - The second estimate of the area to be planted is of 1,814,181 hectares, 2.4% lower than that of 2014, reflecting the low prices obtained by the producers in the previous crops. In the area to be harvested, growth of 6.1% is expected, for, in 2014, many crops in the Northeast Region were affected by the droughts. The average yield might present a growth of 5.1%, as long as the weather conditions favor the crop growing.

CORN 1st CROP (in grain) - Minas Gerais keeps the leadership in the production of corn - 1st crop. With an estimate of 6,075,108 tonnes, the areas are already planted and in the phase of cultural treatment, despite the delay in the beginning of the rainfalls, which held back the planting, which just began this month. This production is 1.2% lower than that of the previous month; however, the production is still bigger than that of 2014 by 5.5%, due to a more positive forecast in terms of average yield, which rose to 5,942 tonnes/ha, 8.1% above 2014 crop. This state had an estimate of 7.0% reduction in the planted area in relation to the previous crop.

SOYBEAN GRAIN – The second production estimate of 95,395,785 tonnes of soybeans is 10.5% higher in relation to the previous year. Such a growth is due to the increase in the estimate of the area and of the average yield, which were, respectively, 2.8% and 7.4% bigger.

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[i] Products: upland cottonseed, peanut (in the shell), paddy rice, bean seeds, castor beans, corn grains, soybeans (in grain), oat grain, rye (in grain), barley grain, sunflower (in grain), sorghum grain, wheat grain and triticale grain.

[ii] Due to users’ needs of crop data, surveys relative to Cereals, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October 2007.