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In September, industrial output falls in 6 of the 14 places surveyed

November 07, 2014 09h00 AM | Last Updated: February 21, 2018 02h39 PM

The pace of decline of the national industrial output, between August and September, in the seasonally adjusted series, was also seen in six of the fourteen places surveyed. The sharpest drops occurred in Rio de Janeiro (-5.6%) and Pernambuco (-2.2%). With September results, Rio de Janeiro had the second consecutive negative result, accumulating a loss of 7.7% in the period. Pernambuco eliminated part of the 6.0% cumulative expansion over July and August. São Paulo (-0.7%), Paraná (-0.5%) and Ceará (-0.4%) also had negative rates below the national average (-0.2%). The Northeast Region (-0.2%) closed the set of places reducing the output. On the other hand, Rio Grande do Sul (3.5%), Santa Catarina (2.9%), Minas Gerais (1.8%) and Goiás (1.2%)had the highest rates this month, whereas Pará (0.8%), Amazonas (0.5%), Bahia (0.3%) and Espírito Santo (0.1%) recorded more modest advances.

 
 
Short-Term Indicators of Industry - Regional Results - September 2014
Places Change (%)
September 2014/
August 2014*
September 2014/
September 2013
Cumulative
January-September
Cumulative in
the last 12 months
Amazonas
0.5
-4.1
-0.9
1.2
Pará
0.8
5.7
9.6
8.3
Northeast Region
-0.2
1.1
-0.6
-0.9
Ceará
-0.4
1.2
-1.1
1.3
Pernambuco
-2.2
5.1
2.5
2.1
Bahia
0.3
-5.3
-5.4
-4.3
Minas Gerais
1.8
-1.0
-1.8
-2.2
Espírito Santo
0.1
17.3
3.3
1.9
Rio de Janeiro
-5.6
-7.8
-3.6
-3.2
São Paulo
-0.7
-6.9
-5.8
-4.7
Paraná
-0.5
-6.9
-5.8
-3.5
Santa Catarina
2.9
2.3
-1.9
-1.2
Rio Grande do Sul
3.5
1.3
-4.5
-1.8
Mato Grosso
-
-0.5
1.6
4.3
Goiás
1.2
6.5
1.3
2.6
Brazil
-0.2
-2.1
-2.9
-2,2
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
* Seasonally-adjusted series

Also in the seasonally-adjusted series, the quarterly moving average for the industry overall rose 0.4% in the quarter which ended in September, in comparison with the previous month, and interrupted the downward trend observed since March. In twelve areas there were positive rates, the main highlights being Rio Grande do Sul (3.3%), Ceará (3.1%), Amazonas (2.8%), Paraná (2.8%), Espírito Santo (2.3%) and Santa Catarina (2.1%). On the other hand, Rio de Janeiro (-2.5%) and São Paulo
(-0.6%) recorded negtive results in September 2014.

In comparison with the same month a year before , industry recorded decrease of 2.1% in September 2014, with output decline being followed by seven of the fifteen places surveyed. It is worth mentioning that, in 2014, September had 22 business days, one more than the previous year (21). The most relevant decreases were recorded in Rio de Janeiro (-7.8%), Paraná (-6.9%), São Paulo (-6.9%), Bahia (-5.3%) and Amazonas (-4.1%), affected, to a great extent, by the decrease of output of motor vehicles, trailers and trunks (cars and trucks) in the first two places; food products (crystallized and VHP sugar) and motor vehicles, trailers and trunks (trucks, tractor-trucks for trailers and semi-trailers and car pieces), in the third one; motor vehilcles, trailers and trunks (cars), in the fourth place and computer equipment, electronic and optical products (television sets) and other transportation equipment (motorcycles and its pieces), in the last one. Minas Gerais (-1.0%) and Mato Grosso (-0.5%) complete the group of areas with negative rates in September 2014. On the other hand, Espírito Santo (17.3%) recorded the main increase, affected, to a great extent, by the mining and quarrying sector (iron ore pellets and crude petroleum oil). The other positive results were observed in Goiás (6.5%), Pará (5.7%), Pernambuco (5.1%), Santa Catarina (2.3%), Rio Grande do Sul (1.3%), Ceará (1.2%) and Northeast Region (1.1%).

Having decreased 3.7% in the third quarter of 2014 , in relation to the same period in 2013, industry recorded its second consecutive negative rate in this type of comparison. This decrease was less significant than that of April-June (-5.3%). Ten of the fifteen areas surveyed also recorded negative rates in the third quarter of 2014, but twelve places recorded change of pace between the two quarters. The highlights were Espírito Santo, which changed from advance of 0.7% in the April-June period to increase of 13.9% in the following quarter; Rio Grande do Sul (from -9.9% to -5.8%), Ceará (from -3.8% to -0.5%), Paraná (from -11.1% to -8.0%) and Mato Grosso (from -0.1% to 2.7%). In this same comparison, Pará (from 21.8% to 3.4%) recorded the main deceleration.

Indicators of Industrial Output - Regional Results
Quarterly Index
(Base: Same period as in the previous year)
]
Places Percent change (%)
Q1/2014
Q2/2014
Q3/2014
Amazonas
12.3
-7.4
-6.5
Pará
5.0
21.8
3.4
Northeast Region
3.0
-2.9
-2.0
Ceará
0.9
-3.8
-0.5
Pernambuco
7.6
-0.8
0.1
Bahia
-1.8
-6.8
-7.4
Minas Gerais
3.7
-5.0
-3.5
Espírito Santo
-4.9
0.7
13.9
Rio de Janeiro
-1.8
-5.5
-3.4
São Paulo
-3.5
-6.3
-7.1
Paraná
3.2
-11.1
-8.0
Santa Catarina
1.6
-4.5
-2.7
Rio Grande do Sul
3.4
-9.9
-5.8
Mato Grosso
2.4
-0.1
2.7
Goiás
-3.2
1.6
4.1
Brazil
0.6
-5.3
-3.7
 
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria

In terms of the cumulative index in the year, in comparison with the same period in the previous year, decrease of the national output reached ten of the fifteen areas surveyed, with five of them recording decrease below the average of industry. Paraná (-5.8%), São Paulo (-5.8%), Bahia (-5.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (-5.5%) and Rio de Janeiro (-3.6%). Santa Catarina (-1.9%), Minas Gerais (-1.8%), Ceará (-1.1%), Amazonas (-0.9%) and Northeast Region (-0.6%) completed the group of areas with negative results in the end of nine months in 2014. In these places, the reduced dynamism was particularly influenced by the reduced output of capital goods (especially those related to transportation equipment - tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, trucks and vehicles for the transportation of goods), intermediate goods (car pieces, textiles, steel products, metal products, basic petrochemicals, thermoplastic resins and pesticides) and durable consumer goods (cars, white goods, motorcycles and furniture). On the other hand, Pará (9.6%), Espírito Santo (3.3%), Pernambuco (2.5%), Mato Grosso (1.6%) and Goiás (1.3%) had cumulative rates in the year.

In terms of the cumulative index of the last 12 months (-2.2% in September 2014), industry has remained on a downward trend since March (2.0%) and recorded the most significant decrease since December 2012 (-2.3%). Eight of the fifteen areas surveyed had cumulative negative rates and eleven of them had lower dynamism versus August. The main decreases were those of Paraná (from -2.4% to -3.5%), São Paulo (from -3.6% to -4.7%), Bahia (from -3.3% to -4.3%), Rio Grande do Sul (from -0.9% to -1.8%), Rio de Janeiro (from -2.3% to -3.2%), Ceará (from 2.2% to 1.3%) and Amazonas (from 2.0% to 1.2%). Espírito Santo recorded the biggest increase (from 0.3% to 1.9%) considering the two periods.

Indicators of Industrial Output - Regional Results
Cumulative Index in the Last Twelve Months
(Base: Last previous twelve months )
Places Percent change (%)
August/2014
September/2014
Amazonas
2.0
1.2
Pará
8.1
8.3
Northeast Region
-0.8
-0.9
Ceará
2.2
1.3
Pernambuco
1.2
2.1
Bahia
-3.3
-4.3
Minas Gerais
-2.1
-2.2
Espírito Santo
0.3
1.9
Rio de Janeiro
-2.3
-3.2
São Paulo
-3.6
-4.7
Paraná
-2.4
-3.5
Santa Catarina
-0.9
-1.2
Rio Grande do Sul
-0.9
-1.8
Mato Grosso
5.0
4.3
Goiás
2.2
2.6
Brazil
-1.7
-2,2
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria