In September, the Producer Price Index (IPP) changed -0.94% compared with the previous month; a higher result than the one of July/August (0.49%). The cumulative index of 2014 stayed at 2.06%, against 1.11% in the previous month. When compared with the same month of 2013 (cumulative in 12 months), prices rose 2.87%, against 2.50% in August. The complete publication can be accessed on page https://www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/indicadores/precos/ipp/default.shtm.

16 out of 23 activities surveyed registered a rise in the prices

In September, as in August, 16 of the 23 activities registered positive price changes. The four highest changes occurred among the products encompassed by the activities beverages (7.04%), printing (2.36%), basic metals (2.22%) and tobacco (1.81%). In terms of influence, the highlights were beverages (0.21 p.p.), motor vehicles (0.19 p.p.), basic metals (0.18 p.p.) and other chemical products (0.14 p.p.).

The cumulative indicator in the year (September 2014 against December 2013) reached 2.06%. Among the activities with the greatest rises, basic metals (8.36%), electrical machinery and apparatus (6.78%), beverages (6.26%) and leather articles and footwear (5.23%) stood out. The sectors with the greatest influence were basic metals (0.64 p.p.), motor vehicles (0.49 p.p.), petroleum refining and ethanol products (0.40 p.p.) and food products (-0.35 p.p.).

Comparing September 2014 with September 2013 (accumulated in 12 months), the price change was 2.87%.  The four biggest ones were in electrical machinery and apparatus (9.63%), leather articles and footwear (8.95%), beverages (8.59%) and basic metals (6.88%). The highest influences came from petroleum refining and alcohol production (0.69 p.p.), basic metals (0.54 p.p.), motor vehicles (0.52 p.p.) and electrical machinery and apparatus (0.26 p.p.).

Food products: food prices changed 0.52%, the second consecutive positive rate (August, 0.70%), after five negative results. Therefore, the cumulative index of the year reached -1.72%, the same rate seen in July. The cumulative index in 12 months recorded its lowest rate (-0.90%), the only negative result in the series initiated in December 2010. Among the eight highlighted products, in terms of change and influence, six are meat. In relation to meat prices (beef, pork and poultry, chilled or fresh), there is a quite low supply in relation to a demand stimulated by the exports, which affect particularly hogs and pigs. In the long run, the price fall of residue of soybean extraction reinforced the movement of the product's price (which has negatively influenced the cumulative index over 12 months since June 2014) and was the main influence on the negative rate of the month (- 0.90%) in this index. This reflects the high global supply of the product in the period.

Beverages: after presenting changes of 0.13% in July and 1.89% in August, there was an average increase of 7.04% in the prices of the activity in September, the greatest since January 2010, when the index started. This result caused the sector to record the highest influence on the overall result of the industry. Since 2012, September has come up as the month when there are major price increases, due to the upcoming summer. In the cumulative index of the year, the sector, which since the beginning of the year had had negative results, recorded a positive change of 6.26%. In the cumulative indicator over 12 months, the price change was of 8.59%, near the results presented in the first months of the year.

Petroleum refining and ethanol products: the activity registered a change of 0.05% in the comparison with August, offsetting the negative result registered in the previous month. In the year, the sector accumulated 3.60%, whereas the indicator of the last 12 months recorded 6.35%. Concerning products, the highlight are naphthas, basic lubricants oils and aviation kerosene, all with positive changes and belonging to the class of refining products. In contrast, ethyl alcohol (anhydrous or hydrated) registered a negative change. This activity was the one which most influenced the result of the last 12 months, with 0.69 p.p. of the 2.87% of change, even though it has presented for the ninth time in a row a drop in the cumulative change over the last 12 months.

Other Chemical Products: the chemical industry recorded 1.25% of change in September, the second positive rate after five months in a row of negative rates, returning to February's level in 2014 (1.35%). The indicator of the last 12 months, after decelerating in the last six months, inclusively with negative results in July and August, is again recording a positive change of 0.24%. In relation to the cumulative index of the year, after four months of negative results, it reached the rate of 0.67%, the lowest value of last three years (5.92% and 6.01% to September 2013 and September 2012, respectively). All the four products with a highlight in the price change registered positive results: ammoniac, chlorine, phenol (hydroxybenzene) and its salts and expandable polystyrene. In terms of influence, the activity contributed with 0.14 p.p. to the 0.94% change of the manufacturing industries and the products which most contributed to this trend were manure or NPK fertilizers and unsaturated propene (propylene); offset by unsaturated ethylene (ethane) and by herbicides for agricultural use.

Basic metals: there was a positive change of 2.22%. As a result, the sector accumulated up to September a change of 8.36%, the greatest positive change among all activities of the manufacturing industries and also of this indicator in the activity. This rate considers the result of January 2014 against December 2013 (4.30%), the biggest rate of the series of this sector since the beginning of the IPP survey. In the cumulative index over 12 months, the change was of 6.88%, lower than that of September 2013 (7.79%). Among the highlights, three products (unwrought aluminum non-alloy; uncoated cold-rolled steel carbon coils and uncoated thick steel carbon plates) stand out both in terms of change and in terms of influence, all of them pushing the result up and belonging to basic metals in the subgroup non-ferrous metals. The last highlighted product in terms of change was tinplate, but in terms of influence, it was stainless steel coil or sheet, including strips. Those four products exerted the greatest influence on the indicator and, altogether, accounted for 1.76 p.p. (in 2.22%). The sector results are attributable to the new markets, production cost increase and, in the case of non-ferrous metals, to the rise of the international prices.

Electrical machinery and apparatus: the 0.19% rise between August and September is the lowest positive rate seen in a year of three negative rates (-0.57%, in April; -0.51% in June; and – 0.17% in July) and in which the highest rates occurred in the beginning of the year (2.45% in January and 1.77% in February). With September's rise, the cumulative index in the year (6.78%) went back to May's levels (6.79%). In the cumulative indicator over 12 months, the result of 9.63% kept the downward trend started in May 2014 (12.76%). That is, the highest prices in the first two months of the year determined, up to September, the main price trends in this sector. Two products stood out both in terms of change and influence: liquid dielectric transformers and optical fiber cables, and the highlight in this case is due to a positive price change. The two other highlights, in terms of influence, electrical conductors with insulation layer, for voltages less or equal 1000v and electric batteries and cells, except for vehicles, took the indicator down. The four products that influenced the 0.19% result on 0.18 p.p.. Refrigerators or freezers for domestic use, which leveraged the increases of the beginning of the year, are the main products in terms of influence both in the cumulative index of the year and over 12 months.

Motor vehicles: the manufacturing of motor vehicles recorded a change of 0.64%. Even though this result was below those of January (1.06%) and February (0.65%) this year, it is the greatest of the last six months. Therefore, the cumulative index in 2014 increased to 2.79%. The most highlighted products with positive changes were gasoline, ethanol or biofuel passenger cars, of any power output, engine pieces for motor vehicles and chassis for bus or truck engines. The product bus bodies stood out with a negative change. Those four products totaled 0.58 p.p. in the month. In this period of the year, the transition of car models (with the 2015 models launch) has already begun to influence on the indicator, contributing to the price rise.