In January, the volume of sales of the retail trade in Brazil grew 0.4% and the nominal revenue, 0.9% in relation to December, in the seasonally adjusted series. The figure returned to positive in the volume series, after halting its growth in December (-0.2%). The nominal revenue kept its positive evolution since June 2012. The moving averages of volume and revenue increased 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively.

In the other comparisons, obtained from the unadjusted original series, the national retail recorded, as to the volume of sales, increases of 6.2% against January last year and of 4.3% in the cumulative index of the last 12 months. For the same indicators, the nominal revenue of sales recorded change rates of 12.5% and 11.9%, respectively.

In the seasonally adjusted series of the extended retail trade, the volume of sales rose 2.1% and the nominal revenue, 1.7%. Both sales and revenue increased over January 2013: 3.5% and 8.8%, respectively. The cumulative index in the last 12 months was 3.3% for the volume of sales and 8.8% for the nominal revenue. More detailed information about the survey on https://www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/comercio/pmc/.

In the seasonally adjusted series, the extended retail trade registered rises in eight out of the 10 activities surveyed in relation to December 2013. The figures were as follows: Office, computer and communication equipment and material (6.0%); Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (4.2%); Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces (1.9%); Fuels and lubricants (1.4%); Furniture and household appliances (1.2%); Hypermarket, supermarket, food, beverages and tobacco (1.0%); Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (0.6%); Construction material (0.2%); Other articles of personal and domestic use (-0.1%); and Fabric, wearing apparel and footwear (-0.3%).

In the seasonally unadjusted series of the retail, the relation between January 2014 and January 2013 showed that only the activity of Office, computer and communication equipment and material recorded a negative figure (-4.6%). Among those which posted a rise, the changes by order of importance as to the overall result were: 5.5% for Hypermarket, supermarket, food, beverages and tobacco; 13.6% for Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics; 7.6% for Other articles of personal and domestic use; 5.8% for Furniture and household appliances; 6.9% for Fuels and lubricants; 4.0% for Fabric, wearing apparel and footwear; and 4.2% for Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery.

The segment of Hypermarket, supermarket, food, beverages and tobacco started the year with a change of 5.5% in the volume of sales over January last year, exerting the biggest impact over the performance rate of the retail (45%). This was the result of the increased purchasing power of the population, since the usual real wage bill of employed persons rose 3.3% over January 2013. Led by the effects of the current minimum wage - in force since January 1st -, which increased 6.8% against the inflation of 5.9% in 2013, according to the IPCA. This activity grew 2.1% in the cumulative rate in 12 months until January, less than the rate of 4.3% recorded in the retail.

As the second contributor to the overall rate of the retail (14%), the activity of Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles and toiletries increased its volume of sales by 13.6% when compared with January 2013 and by 10.4% in the cumulative rate in the last 12 months. The growth above the average, in both comparisons, was due to the positive behavior - yet decreasing - of the wage bill, as well as to the essential nature of the products in this sector. By standing below the average, the effect of the prices of pharmaceuticals should also be highlighted: 4.8% in 12 months up to January 2014 against 5.6% of the overall index, according to the IPCA.

By changing 7.6% in the volume of sales over January 2013, the segment of Other articles of personal and domestic use posted the third highest impact over the retail rate (13%). Encompassing department, optical, jewelry, sports, toy stores etc., this activity had its performance also influenced by the positive evolution of the wage bill and by the availability of credit, despite its slower growth.  By registering a rate of 9.8%, this activity surpassed the average retail in the cumulative rate of the last 12 months.

The activity of Furniture and household appliances was the fourth contributor to the overall retail rate, by recording an increase of 5.8% in the volume of sales over January last year. This segment posted a growth of approximately 5.0% in the cumulative index of the last 12 months. Even though positive, the rate was lower than that registered in January 2013 (11.5%). Such deceleration could be attributed to the changes in the tax incentives for white goods and furniture, as well as to the lower pace of growth of credit, as noted before.

By changing 6.9% its volume of sales in the relation January 2014/January 2013, the segment of Fuels and lubricants was responsible for the fifth highest impact on the overall figure. The cumulative rate of this activity in the last 12 months was 6.2%. Even with the prices of fuels surpassing the official inflation, this activity has been sustaining performance rates above the average of the sector. It is worth highlighting that the national fleet of vehicles has also been influencing this figure. 

Responsible for the sixth highest participation in the overall retail rate, the activity of Fabric, wearing apparel and footwear changed 4.0% over the same month last year and 3.4% in the last 12 months. The change in the volume of sales was below the overall average, though the prices of this segment have been rising close to the overall index (change of 5.7% for the group of Wearing Apparel against an average inflation of 5.6% in the last 12 months until January 2014, according to the IPCA).

The activity of Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery recorded a change of 4.2%, exerting the seventh major contribution to the overall retail rate. The cumulative figure in the last 12 months was approximately 2.3%.  As one of the factors that explained the under average performance of the retail trade, the evolution of the prices of stationery products changed 8.7% in 12 months, surpassing the overall average of prices (5.6%), according to the IPCA of January.

By posting a change of -4.6% in January, the segment of Office, computer and communication equipment and material registered the lowest participation in the retail rate. The deceleration of the performance rates in this activity culminated in the negative figure of January. As the main product of this activity, the changing level of prices of microcomputers was one of the reasons for such behavior. The cumulative rate was 5.8% in the last 12 months.

Consisting of retail plus the activities of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and of Construction material, the Extended retail trade recorded an increase in the volume of sales of approximately 3.5% in January 2014 over January 2013. This figure was lower than that of the retail, due to the negative performance of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, which posted -1.8% in the same comparison. In the seasonally adjusted series, this activity registered changes of 1.9% over the previous month and of 0.7% in the cumulative index of the last 12 months. As for the nominal revenue of sales, the changes were: 1.3% over the previous month; 0.6% over January 2013; and 2.1% in the cumulative index of the last 12 months. The negative figure reported by the inter-annual comparison could be reflecting the reduced pace of credit growth, pointed out by the Central Bank. It should be highlighted that the increase of the IPI rates since January 2014 did not bring results, due to the existence of stocks in the car manufacturers still priced under the old IPI.

The segment of Construction material changed its volume of sales by 0.2% compared with the previous month with seasonal adjustment; by 3.9% over January 2013; and by 6.3% in the cumulative index in the last 12 months. As for the nominal revenue of sales, the changes were: 0.7%; 10.1% and 10,7%, respectively. The reduced IPI for a basket of products of this sector and the favorable conditions of the housing credit - including the extended limit of the FGTS for real estate financing - have been contributing to this activity.

REGIONAL RESULTS

Comparing January 2014 with the same month last year, all the Federation Units registered positive figures in the volume of sales. The highlights were Acre (13.7%); Rondônia (11.0%); Tocantins (10.7%); Alagoas (10.0%); and Maranhão (8.8%) - Graph 5. Concerning the contribution to the rate of the retail trade, the highlights were São Paulo (6.4%); Rio de Janeiro (4.8%); Minas Gerais (5.9%); Rio Grande do Sul (7.1%) and Paraná (6.9%).

As to the extended retail, four Federation Units recorded a drop in the volume of sales: Amapá (-9.7%); Espírito Santo (-7.1%); Tocantins (-2.6%); and Mato Grosso do Sul (-0.5%). In terms of positive figures, the highlights were Acre (12.8%); Rio Grande do Sul (11.5%); the Federal District (8.8%); Sergipe (8.8%); and Amazonas (8.7%). As to the impact on the overall figure of this sector, the biggest contribution came from Rio Grande do Sul (11.5%), followed by Paraná (5.5%); Santa Catarina (6.6%); Rio de Janeiro (2.5%); and São Paulo (0.8%).

Still concerning the Federation Units and the volume of sales, five states reported seasonally adjusted negative changes, highlighted by Mato Grosso do Sul (-3.0%); Pernambuco (-0.7%); and Piauí (-0.2%). The highest increases were registered in Tocantins (7.5%); Sergipe (3.4%); Mato Grosso (3.4%); Espírito Santo (3.0%); and Minas Gerais (2.6%).