In January 2014, the national industrial output recorded an expansion of 2.9% in relation to the previous month, in the seasonally adjusted series, after shrinking 0.6% in November and 3.7% in December.

In the seasonally adjusted series, in the  comparison with same month a year ago, the industry overall fell 2.4% in January 2014 – the second positive result in a row in this kind of comparison, since it shrank 2.5% in December 2013.

The annualized rate, cumulative indicator over the last 12 months, expanding 0.5% in January 2014, posted less dynamism over the result registered last December (1.2%).

The complete publication of the survey can be accessed at

www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/industria/pimpfbr/ 

In the beginning of 2014, the industrial sector shows again more dynamism, not only in the expansion of 2.9% in the comparison between January 2014 and December 2013, but also in the widespread increase, since all categories of use and most of the activities posted output growth. With this month's result, the industry overall offset part of the 4.3% loss accumulated in the November-December period, but still is 4.0% below the record level reached in may 2011. In the seasonally adjusted series, the evidences of a better pace are clear in the quarterly moving average, which shows that the industrial output, even though with a negative behavior, posted an unquestionable reduction in the pace of decrease between December and January.

In the month/same month a year ago comparison, the industrial output registered decrease, with the monthly index of January 2014 marking the second negative result in a row with a clear prevalence of negative rates among the activities and the categories of use. It is worth highlighting the loss of pace seen between this month's index (-2.4%) and the index of Q3 2013 (- 0.3%), both comparisons against the same period a year ago. Among the categories of use, all recorded pace decrease, but capital goods, which had the greatest reduction between the two periods, was the only one whose rate remained positive.

17 out of the 27 segments surveyed record increase in January

The 2.9% expansion of the industrial activity from December 2013 to January 2014 registered widespread growth, reaching all categories of use and most of the segments surveyed (17 out of the 27). Among the activities, the major positive influences were posted by pharmaceuticals (29.4%), motor vehicles (8.7%) and machinery and equipment (6.4%).  It is worth mentioning that, with this month's result, the first sector offset part of the 12.3% fall registered last December; the second one interrupted a negative behavior seen since last October, period in which it accumulated a 23.5% loss; and the last one recovered part of the 9.4% loss observed in November and December. Other important positive contributions to the industry overall came from office machinery and computer equipment (18.2%), communication equipment, apparatuses and electronic material (7.6%), medical, optical and other equipment (17.5%), rubber and plastic (4.9%), basic metals (2.8%), leather articles and footwear (10.7%) and electrical machinery and apparatus (3.9%). Conversely, among the nine segments that decreased production, the performances of major importance to the global media were registered by tobacco (-47.6%), other chemical products (-2.5%), oil refining and ethanol production (-2.2%), influenced by strikes at producing facilities of the sector and by fabricated metal products (-2.7%).

Among the categories of use, in the comparison with the previous month, capital goods, advancing 10.0%, registered the sharpest increase in January 2014, influenced to a great extent by the recovery in the production of trucks, since, in the previous month, several enterprises of this sector were in collective vacation. It is worth mentioning that this growth was the sharpest since June 1997 (14.5%) and interrupted two months in a row of fall in the production, a period in which it accumulated a loss of 15.0%. The sector of durable consumer goods (3.8%) also advanced above the national average (2.9%) and recovered part of the 4.4% loss seen last December. The segments of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (1.2%) and of intermediate goods (1.2%) also recorded positive rates this month, both offsetting the falls registered in the previous month: -2.3% and -4.2%, respectively.

Quarterly moving average changes –0.5%

In the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the industry overall had a reduction of 0.5% in the quarter ended in January against the previous month, but it reduced the pace of decline over the level registered in December (-1.3%). Among the categories of use, in relation to the movement of this index on margin, capital goods (-2.3%) recorded the sharpest drop in January 2014, after posting a fall of 5.0% in the previous month. The segments of intermediate goods (-0.5%), semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-0.4%) and durable consumer goods (-0.2%) also registered negative rates this month, with the first sector marking the second drop in a row and accumulating in the period a fall of 1.3%; the second one kept the downward trend initiated in August 2013; and the last one reduced the pace of fall over the result of the previous month (-2.0%).

Industrial production falls 2.4% in the comparison with January 2013

In the comparison with the same month a year ago, the industrial sector fell 2.4% in January 2014, with prevalence of negative results, since three of the four categories of use in 19 of the 27 segments, 46 of the 76 subsectors and 57% of the 755 products surveyed recorded reduction in the production. Among the activities, motor vehicles, which fell 14.4%, exerted the major negative influence in the formation of the industrial average, pushed to a great extent by the drops in the production of the majority of the products surveyed in the sector (almost 90%), with a highlight to the lowest production of cars, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, vehicles for the transportation of goods, chassis with engine for trailers and semi-trailers, car parts and diesel engines for trucks and buses. Other negative relevant contributions to the national overall came from publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media (- 11.5%), fabricated metal products (- 8.2%), beverages (- 5.9%), electrical machinery and apparatus (- 8.7%), oil refining and ethanol production (- 2.9%) and rubber and plastic (- 5.8%). Concerning products, the most important negative pressures in these segments were, respectively, books, newspapers and magazines; parts and pieces for capital goods, wrought iron and steel parts and pieces, various articles of iron and steel and razors; beer, draft beer, syrup and powder preparations for beverages and soft drinks; electronic security alarm systems, wires, cables and  electrical conductors, fluorescent lamps and wire connectors; diesel fuels and other oil fuels; rubber and plastic parts and accessories for the car industry, plastic self-adhesive tapes or strips and plastic carboys, bottles, flasks and similar articles (including PET bottles). On the other hand, in the comparison with January 2013, among the eight activities that enhanced production, the major impacts were seen in communication equipment, apparatuses and electronic material (27.8%), machinery and equipment (6.9%), other transportation equipment (8.2%) and office machinery and computer equipment (20.5%), mostly influenced by TV sets and mobile phones, in the first sector, motor graders, drills, machining centers for metal manufacturing, wheel loaders, self propelled stacker forklifts, harvesting machines, industrial freezers, microwave ovens and forklift trucks, in the second, airplanes and motorcycles, in the third, and pieces and accessories for computer equipment and computer monitors, in the last one.

In the indexes by categories of use, still comparing with the same month in the previous year, the results were negative for durable consumer goods (-5.4%), semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-3.0%) and intermediate goods (-2.7%), whereas the production of capital goods, growing 2.5%, posted the only positive rate in January 2014. The sector of durable consumer goods, shrinking 5.4% in January, posted the sharpest drop among the categories of use and the fourth consecutive negative result in this kind of comparison. In the formation of the index, the segment was influenced to a great extent by the lower manufacture of cars (-18.2%), white goods (-7.2%), furniture (-9.7%). On the other hand, that same category of use recorded positive impacts coming from brown goods (55.3%), motorcycles (17.6%), mobile telephones (22.2%) and of other household appliances (1.4%).

Month on month a year ago, intermediate goods (-2.7%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-3.0%) also marked higher negative rates than the industry average (-2.4%) in January 2014. In the first segment, which had the sharpest fall since February 2013 (-4.5%), this month performance was pushed down by the negative results coming from the products related to motor vehicles (-13.6%), oil refining and ethanol production (-4.7%), basic metals (-3.1%), paper products (-10.0%), rubber and plastic (-5.9%), textiles (-5.1%), pulp, paper and paper products (-2.4%), mining and quarrying (-0.9%) and non-metallic mineral products (-1.5%), whereas the positive influences were registered by food products (4.9%) and other chemical products (0.8%). Still in this category of use, it is worth mentioning as well the negative indexes coming from inputs for the civil construction (-1.2%), which marked the second drop in a row in the monthly index, and of packages (-4.8%), which registered the third consecutive negative rate and the strongest drop since March 2012 (-7.0%). The reduction in the production of semi- and non-durable consumer goods, which hit the sixth consecutive negative result in this kind of comparison, was due drops in the groups of food and beverages  for household consumption (-3.6%), of other non-durable (-3.6%) and semi-durable (-3.4%). In these subsectors, the highlights were the lower manufacture of concentrated orange juice, beer, draft beer and soft drinks, in the first; books, medicine and newspapers, in the second, and of women’s synthetic footwear, CDs, glasses, fluorescent lamps, rubber footwear, dresses and plastic articles for household use, in the last group. Conversely, the only positive contribution was recorded by the group fuels (1.2%), driven by the advances in the production of motor gasoline and of ethyl alcohol.

The sector of capital goods, growing 2.5% in January 2014, posted the 13th consecutive positive result in comparison with the same month a year ago. This month, the sector was particularly influenced by the expansion registered in the group capital goods for construction (73.1%), leveraged not only by the growth seen in nearly 90% of the investigated products in this subsector, but also by the low base of comparison, since this group fell  31.5% in January 2013. It is also worth mentioning the positive indexes posted by the groups of capital goods for industrial use (11.9%), for agricultural use (9.6%) and for electricity (4.3%). The other subsectors had decrease in the output this month: capital goods for transportation equipment(-3.3%), after interrupting 11 months of consecutive positive results in this type of comparison, and capital goods for mixed use (- 4.2%).