The 12th estimate of the national production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds confirmed a record harvest of 188.2 million metric tons in 2013, being 16.2% above that of 2012 (161.9 million metric tons), and with an absolute positive change of 1,378,853 metric tons over the November figure (0.7%). The area harvested in 2013, 52.8 million hectares, recorded increase of 8.1% over the area harvested in 2012 (48.8 million hectares) and change of 0.2% (108,889 ha) in relation with the area expected in the previous month. Rice, corn and soybeasn, the three main products of this group, represented, together, 92.4% of the estimated output and 86.1% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year there were decreases of area of 7.4% for corn, 11.7% for soybeans and decrease of 0.9% in the are planted with rice. In cterms of output, there were increases of 3.2% for rice, 13.0% for corn and 24.3% for soybeans, versus 2012 results.

In December 2013, IBGE was also responsible for the 3rd estimate of area and production for the 2014 harvest. The production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds1 for 2014 is estimated at 189,556,187 metric tons, 1,346,131 metric tons above the total of 2013, with a positive change of 0.7%. The Northeast and Southeast Regions had expected increase of 30.9% and 0.1%, respectively. The South, Central-West and Northeast Regions are expected to face decreases of -1.0%, -1.9% and -3.0%, respectively.

The complete publication can be seen at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

In 2013, among the Major Regions, the produced volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented the following distribution: Central West, 78.5 million metric tons; South Region, 73.0 million metric tons; Southeast, 19.8 million metric tons; Northeast Region, 12.0 million metric tons; and North Region, 5.0 million metric tons. There were increases versus the previous harvest: 10.8% in the Central-West; 32.2% in the South; 2.8% in the Southeast, 0.7% in the Northeast and 4.0% in the North. In this evaluation for 2013, Mato Grosso was the leader as the major producer of grains, with participation of 24.5%, followed by Paraná (19.4%) and Rio Grande do Sul (16.1%), which, together, accounted for 60.0% of the expected output.

December 2013 estimate versus 2012 output

Among the twenty six products selected, 16 recorded increase in comparison with the previous year: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (11.8%), paddy rice (3.2%), oat grain (22.0%), potatoes - 1st crop (3.9%), potatoes - 2nd crop (7.0%), cacao nuts (2.0%), sugarcane (10.0%), barley grain (22.8%%), beans - 2nd crop (18.5%), beans - 3rd crop (7.4%), corn - 1st crop (2.9%), corn - 2nd crop (21.7%), soybean grain (24.3%), sorghum grain (1.7%), wheat grain (30.4%) and triticale grain (5.4%).  Ten products presented decrease of estimates: upland cottonseed (31.4%), peanuts in the shell - 2nd crop (10.8%), potatoes - 3rd crop (7.7%), coffee bean - arabica (1.4%), coffee bean - canephora - (14.7%), onions (1.2%), beans - 1st crop (10.4%), oranges (14.8%), castor beans (52.9%) and cassava (9.5%).

Highlights in the comparison between estimates of December and November 2013

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production shows the following highlights in terms of production estimates, compared to those in November: oat grain (27.1%), wheat (14.9%), barley (14.5%), sugarcane 93.6%) and coffee bean - arabica (2.8%).

Prospects for agricultural production in 2014

Among the ten most important items analyzed for the summer harvest, six recorded positive changes in output in relation to 2013: upland cotton (13.6%), rice (4.2%), beans - 1st crop (39.9%), tobacco (3.4%), cassava (8.0%) and soybeans (10.5%).  With negative change: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (-8.1%), potatoes - 1sct crop 9-0.2%), onions (-15.6%) and grain corn - 1st crop (-4.2%).   Considering coffee bean - arabica, the expected production decrease is 1.9%. For canephora, the expected increase is 11.6%.

In relation to the area to be harvested, the products presenting positive change are: upland cotton (14.4%), rice (0.1%), beans - 1st crop (13.8%), tobacco (3.0%), cassava (6.7%) and soybeans (5.3%).   The products expected to record retraction are: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (-0.5%), potatoes - 1sct crop (-2.3%), onions (-11.2%) and grain corn - 1st crop (-1.0%).  Coffee bean - arabica records an expected negative change of 3.2% in its harvesting area; canephora, on the other hand, is expected to record increase of 0.3%.

UPLAND COTTONSEED - The 3rd estimate of upland cotton for year 2014 presents increase of 14.0% in the planting area compared to that of last year, amounting to 1,074,036 hectares, and an output of 3,868,219 metric tons, 13.6% more than in 2013.  Reduction of stocks and better prices of this product were incentives to planting for the 2014 harvest.

PADDY RICE - The 3rd estimate of production of rice in husk is 12,254,085 metric tons, being 4.2% bigger than the 2013 harvest, but 0.7% smaller than the November estimate.  Whereas planted area has fallen 1.1%, average yield increases 4.1% in relation to 2013, leading to this estimated output. Rio Grande do Sul, the main national producer, is expected to account for 69.1% of the national outpt of this cereal. In this survey, the state presents lower data in comparison with those of November. The production of 8,472,699 metric tons, 4.6% bigger than in 2013, fell 1.3% in relation to previous data. The area planted to crops is expected to reach 1,11,614 hectares, respectively, 2.7% and 2.9% more than in 2013, but with reduction of 0.7% when compared to data of November.

COFFEE BEAN (TOTAL) - IBGE released in December the estimate for the national amount of coffee to be harvested in 2014, which totals 2,950,210 metric tons (49.2 million sacks) of processed coffee, considering the two species together (arabica and canephora), with increase of 1.1% in relation to the 2013 harvest.  

COFFEA ARABICA (grain) - For coffea arabica, which represents about 75.5% of the Brazilian harvest of coffee, the percentage output decrease in relation to 2013 is 1.9%. Brazil is expected to produce 2,227,347 metric tons, which is equivalent to 37.1 million 60 kg sacks. In 2013, a year of low output, the country produced 2,270,874 metric tons (37.8 million sacks).  From 1992 to 2013, alternate harvests occurred, without interruption (for the variable amount produced).  Even years had full harvests, and odd years, smaller ones.  In 2014, if predictions are confirmed, there will be decrease of the total area planted with coffea arabica (-4.4%) and of the area for planting by,525,498 ha (-3.2%), as a result of a major crisis of international prices, which became even more serious in November 2012 and continued until the end 0f 2013.

COFFEA CANEPHORA (grain) – Considering coffea canephora, the initial estimate for 2014 is to produce 722,863 metric tons (12.0 million sacks), 11.6% more than the output of the country in 2013, in an area to be harvested of 472,321 hectares.  The overall area planted with this crop is 472,762 hectares (-17.50%). 

Espírito Santo, the main national producer of canephora, is expected to concentrate, in 2014, 80.0% (578,205 metric tons or 9.6 million sacks) of the national output, with increase of 18.1% in relation to 2013.

BEAN SEED - 1st crop - the output of bean seed - 1st crop for 2014 is 1,527,079 metric tons, being 39.99% bigger than the in the 2013 harvest. The bigger planted area (2.3%) and the perspective of not having climate problems such as those which affected the Northeast Region in 2013, caused the estimated area to be harvested to increase by 13.8%, and average yield by 22.9% when compared to variables of the same planting period in 2013. Increase will partially recover the loss of production which occurred in 2013. Although the price of beans is good, it is necessary to consider that the prices of soybeans and cotton are better, due to the better liquidity of such products. They are more successful in the competition for planting of the "water harvest" (summer harvest).

CASSAVA (roots) - The area planted with cassava in 2014 is expected to fall 3.9%.  However, output is estimated to increase 8.0% in relation to 2013, reaching 22,890,839 metric tons.  This increase occurred due to an increment of 6.7% in planted area and of 1.2% in the average yield in relation to 2013, resulting in 22,890,839 metric tons. 

CORN GRAIN - 1st crop - In this 3rd estimate, decrease of the Brazilian production of corn - 1st crop is confirmed. The amount produced is expected to remain at 32.8 million metric tons.  Due to the fall of corn prices in the 2nd semester of 2013, affected by the big output of corn- 2nd harvest, together with the price of soybeans, which remains strongly on the market, there was lack of incentive by producers to planting of this product as a 1st crop in 2014.  This way, the prospect for 2014 is to have increase of the area planted with soybeans (5.2%) in place of the area planted with corn - 1st harvest (-6.3%). Output is expected to fall by 4.2% in 2014, partially due to the reduction of area and to the fall of average yield (-3.1%).

SOYBEAN - The estimate for sorghum production, in April, is 2,068,705 t, with increase of7.0% in relation to March. The area covered with this crop is expected to reach 29,353,751 hectares, with increase of 5.2%. The expected average yield, of 3,075 kg/ha, is 4.9% bigger than that of the previous harvest.   In the present estimate, the main producers of soybeans are expecting increase of output in 2014 in comparison with 2013.  However, the highlights are Piauí and Bahia, which are expecting increases of 109.0% and 29.8%, respectively. Mato Grosso and Paraná, the main producers of this oilseed, informed, in this 3rd prospect for 2014, outputs of 25,731,235 and 16,461,368 metric tons respectively. These states are waiting form increases of 9.9% and 3.4% of output in relation to 2013, respectively, whereas Rio Grande do Sul, the 3rd biggest producer, recorded increase of 9.4%. Its output is expected to reach 13,951,619 metric tons in 2014.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds (cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in October, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.