In May 2013, discounted the seasonal influences, the industrial output posted a drop of 2.0% over the previous month, offsetting part of the 2.6% expansion accumulated in March and April. It was the sharpest fall since February this year (-2.3%).

Compared with same month a year ago, the industrial sector increased by 1.4%, the second consecutive positive rate in that type of comparison, but quite less intense than the one seen in the previous month (8.4%). 

 As a result, in the cumulative index for the first five months of the year, the industrial sector advanced 1.7% over the same period in the previous year.

The annual rate, cumulative indicator over the last 12 months, contracting 0.5% in May 2013, posted a clear reduction in the falling pace over the figures registered in March (-2.0%) and April (- 1.0%).

The quarterly moving average index changed 0.2%.

The complete publication of the survey can be accessed at

www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/indicadores/industria/pimpfbr/default.shtm

The reduction in the pace of the industrial activity in May 2013 (-2.0%) was generalized, reaching most (20) of the 27 industrial sectors and the four categories of use.  Of particular note is that the drop seen this month for the industry overall, besides offsetting the important part of the 2.6% cumulative advance in the months of March and April, is the highest since last February (-2.3%). Considering this month's result, the industry was 3.8% below the record level reached in March 2011. Even offsetting the predominantly positive behavior which characterized the industry in the two last months, the evolution of the quarterly moving average kept in May the upward trend started last December.

Compared to the same periods a year ago, the industrial production posted a rise, with the monthly index relative to May 2013 recording the second consecutive positive rate, despite the calendar effect (since May 2013 had one workday less than the same month a year ago). In the cumulative index over the first five months of 2013, when the industry overall advanced 1.7% and sped up the pace against the closing of the first quarter of the year (-0.5%), also had a lower number of workdays (two) than the same period of 2012. Among the categories of use, the highest dynamism gains were seen in capital goods, pointing out to an expansion of the investments, which moved from 9.7% in the first quarter of the year to 13.3% in the first five months of 2013, and in durable consumer goods (from 1.3% to 4.6%), leveraged to a large extent by the highest production of automobiles. The segment of intermediate goods (from –1.1% to 0.2%) also recorded a positive rate in the cumulative index over the January-May, whereas the sector of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (from –3.6% to –1.0%), even though decreasing the fall intensity between the two periods, kept the negative result in the cumulative index of the year.

Out of the 27 sectors surveyed, 20 registered drops from April to May

The 2.0% drop of the industrial activity from April  to May had a generalized reduction profile, reaching all categories of use and the majority (20) of the 27 sectors surveyed. Among the activities, the major negative influences were posted by food products (-4.4%), machinery and equipment (-5.0%) and motor vehicles (-2.9%). With this month's result, the first sector offset the 4.3% advance seen in the previous month; the second posted the first negative rate since December last year, accumulating in this period a growth of 20.7%; and the third interrupted two months of production expansion - a period in which it accumulated a 15.1% gain.  Other relevant negative contributions to the industry overall result came from: toiletries, soaps, detergents and cleaning products (-8.2%), furniture (-11.4%), office machinery and computer (-9.0%), fabricated metal products (-4.3%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-4.5%), non-metallic minerals (-2.3%), other transportation equipment (-3.1%) and leather articles and footwear (-7.3%). On the other hand, among the six activities that expanded production, the major contributions to the global average were recorded by beverages (4.8%), which recovered part of the 5.9% loss registered in the prior month, petroleum refinement and alcohol production (1.6%) and basic metals (1.1%).

Among the categories of use, still considering the comparison with the previous month, capital goods,  contracting 3.5%, posted the sharpest drop in May 2013 and interrupted four months of consecutive positive results, a period in which it accumulated and expansion of 15.3%. The segments of durable consumer goods (-1.2%), of intermediate goods (-1.1%) and of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-1.0%) also registered negative rates this month, with the first interrupting two consecutive months of production growth, a period in which it accumulated a 5.8% gain; the second offsetting the 0.8% advance between March and April; and the last one reversing the 0.7% increase registered in the prior month.

Quarterly moving average changes 0.2% in May

In the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the industry overall had a positive change of 0.2% in the quarter ended in May against the previous month, after also recording positive rates in January (0.4%), March (0.4%) and April (0.1%). Among the categories of use, in relation to the movement of this index on margin, durable capital goods, growing 1.5%, posted the highest advance and interrupted the sequence of negative results started on February.  The segment of capital goods (0.1%) also recorded a positive index in May and proceeded with the upward trend begun last December.   Semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-0.3%) and intermediate goods (-0.1%) posted negative rates this month. The former keeping the downward trend started last January, and the latter keeping unchanged since December.

Industrial production advances 1.4% in comparison with May 2012

In the comparison with the same month a year ago, the industrial sector grew 1.4% in May 2013, with just 12 of the 27 activities surveyed point out production expansion. It is worth highlighting that May 2013 (21 days) had one workday less than the same month a year ago (22). The segment of motor vehicles, which advanced 11.7%, exerted the biggest positive influence in the formation of the industry average, pushed by the production growth of approximately 70% of the products surveyed in the sector, with a highlight to the largest manufacture of tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, automobiles, trucks and vehicles for the transportation of goods.  Other positive relevant contributions to the national overall came from petroleum refinement and alcohol production (12.5%) and from machinery and equipment (7.5%), mostly influenced by the advances in motor gasoline, ethyl alcohol, diesel fuel and other fuel oil, in the first sector, and of machines for the pulp sector, ball bearings for industrial equipment, microwaves, air-conditioners, forklift trucks, motor graders, harvesters and agricultural tractors, in the second. On the other hand, still considering the comparison with May 2012, among the 15 activities that contracted the production, the main impacts were seen in mining and quarrying industries (-9.1%), fabricated metal products (-9.1%), publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media (-5.4%),  pharmaceutical products (-4.3%) and  textiles (-4.5%) pushed, to a great extent, by the items  iron ores and crude petroleum oil; parts and peaces of steam generating boiler; magazines, newspapers and notebooks; medicine; and cotton cloths and synthetic filament cloths, respectively.

Concerning the items by categories of use, in comparison with the same month a year ago, the results were positive for  capital goods  (12.5%), which posted for the second month in a row  a two-digit expansion,  durable consumer goods (4.1%), which also advanced above the national average (1.4%) and  semi- and non-durable consumer goods (0.8%). On the other hand, the production of intermediate goods (-0.6%) recorded the only negative rate in May 2013.

The sector of capital goods, growing 12.5% in May 2013, posted the fifth positive consecutive result in comparison with the same month a year ago. In the index formation of this month, the segment was influenced by the growth in the greatest part of its groups, with a clear highlight to the 20.2% advance registered by capital goods for transportation equipment, leveraged to a great extent by the larger manufacture of tractor trucks for trailers an semi-trailers, trucks, airplanes and vehicles for the transportation of goods. The other positive results were seen in  capital goods for industrial purposes  (17.4%), the second two-digit expansion in a row,  for agricultural purposes (21.0%),  for miscellaneous purposes  (1.3%) and  for construction  (3.9%) whereas the group of  capital goods for electricity (-4.0%) had the only negative rate.  

Still comparing with the same month a year ago, the segment durable consumer goods (4.1%) signaled the second consecutive positive result, leveraged to a great extent by the larger manufacturing of automobiles (7.6%) and, on a smaller scale, by the advances seen in cell phones  (1.8%) and  house appliances (3.5%). It is worth mentioning that the latter, the positive highlight was recorded by the subsector of other house appliances  (30.8%), since the "brown goods" (0.0%) repeated last year May's standards and the "white goods" contracted 9.7%. In this category of use, negative impacts were also seen in the production of motorcycles (-11.3%) and of articles of furniture (-10.4%).

The segment semi- and non-durable consumer goods advancing 0.8% in the monthly index of May 2013, also registered two months of consecutive positive rates. The performance of this month was influenced by the expansion recorded by the group of fuels (22.2%) pushed not only by the growth in the manufacturing of motor gasoline and alcohol, but  also by the low comparison basis, since in May last year, this subsector contracted 8.4% due to the maintenance break in an important manufacturing unit of the sector. The other groups recorded falls in the production:  food and beverages for domestic consumption (-2.8%),  other non-durable  (-2.1%) and  semi-durable (-1.9%), mainly pushed by the reduction in the manufacturing of soft drinks, beer and draft beer, in the first sub-sector,  medicine, magazines and newspaper, in the second, and  dresses and plastic items for domestic use, in the last one.

The sector of  intermediate goods  (-0.6%), which, after advancing 5.1% in April fell again in May, posted negative impact on products related to mining and quarrying industries  (-9.1%),  fabricated metal products  (-10.7%), textiles (-5.1%),  basic metals  (-1.3%) and  pulp, paper and paper products (-1.8%), non-metallic mineral products (-1.4%) and  motor vehicles (-0.8%), whereas the positive influences were recorded by petroleum refinement and acohol production (7.1%), rubber and plastic (4.7%), food  (2.8%) and other chemical products (0.2%). Still concerning this category of use, it is worth mentioning the negative results coming from the group of inputs for civil construction (-0.4%), after growing 9.7% last April, and of packaging (-2.7%), which interrupted four months of consecutive positive rates in this kind of comparison.

Cumulative index over the first five months advances 1.7%

 In the cumulative index for the first five months of 2013, over the same period in the previous year, the industrial sector posted a 1.7% growth with positive rates in three of the four categories of use, 12 of the 27 sectors, 45 of the 76 subsectors and 49.8% of the 755 products surveyed. The segment of motor vehicles, which advanced 14.3%, kept exerting the biggest positive influence in the formation of the industry average, pushed to a great extent by the production growth of the majority (approximately 75%) of the products surveyed in the sector, with a highlight to the largest manufacture of tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, automobiles, trucks and vehicles for the transportation of goods. Of note is the influence of the low comparison basis, since this sector contracted 18.1% in the cumulative index in the January-May period of 2012, due to strikes because of the granting of collective vacation in several companies of the sector. Other positive contributions to the national total came from petroleum refinement and alcohol production (9.2%), machinery and equipment (4.2%), other transportation equipment (7.7%), electrical machinery and apparatus (7.3%) and rubber and plastic (4.9%). In terms of products, the most important positive pressures in these sectors come from, respectively, diesel fuel and other fuel oil, motor gasoline and ethyl alcohol; machinery and equipment for the pulp sector, ball bearings for industrial equipment and air-conditioners; airplanes; electric cords, cables and conductors, transformers and frames, panels, booths and other bases; and plastic self-adhesive tapes or strips, plastic and rubber peaces and accessories for motor vehicles and tires. On the other hand, among the 14 sectors that reduced the production, the main impacts were seen in mining and quarrying industries (-7.2%), publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media (-9.1%), basic metals (-4.8%), pharmaceutical products (-3.9%) and textiles (-4.6%). In these activities, the highlight was the lowest production of the following items iron ores and crude petroleum oil, in the first, magazines, books and newspapers, in the second, non-alloy aluminum, unwrought and carbon steel ingots, blocks, billets and plates, in the third, medicine, in the fourth, and socks and tights of synthetic fibers, cotton bath, face and hand towels and cotton knitted fabrics, in the last one.

Among the categories of use, the results' profile for the January-May 2013 period presented more dynamism for capital goods (13.3%), pushed by the largest manufacture of capital goods for transportation equipment (25.9%). Durable consumer goods (4.6%) also posted an expansion above the national average (1.7%) in the first five months of the year, influenced to a great extent by the bigger production of automobiles (8.1%). It is worth mentioning these two categories of use, besides a rise in the industrial activity pace throughout the year, were also influenced y the low base of comparison, since the January-May period in 2012 registered falls of 11.9% and 9.9%, respectively. The production of intermediate goods (0.2%) recorded a slight positive change, whereas that of semi- and non-durable consumer goods, with a 1.0% reduction, presented the only negative result in the cumulative index over the first five months of the year.