The third estimate of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) points to a production of around 181.3 million metric tons, 12.0% up over that of 2012 (161.9 million metric tons) and 1.2% smaller than the estimate for February (183.5 million metric tons).

The area to be harvested in 2013, 52.7 million hectares, represents an increase of 7.9% over the area harvested in 2012 (48.8 million hectares) and a reduction of 214,574 hectares over the forecast of the previous month (-0.4%).

The three main crops (rice, corn and soybean), which altogether account for 92.5% of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseed, represent 86.0% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, the survey recorded increases in area of 0.9% for rice, 8.1% for corn and 10.5% for soybeans. Concerning production, the increases recorded were: 5.1% for rice, 5.0% for corn and 23.2% for soybeans, when compared with 2012 figures.

The complete publication can be accessed at

www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa. 

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds shows the following distribution: South Region, 72.1 million metric tons; Central-West, 71.6 million metric tons; Southeast, 19.3 million metric tons; Northeast, 13.7 million metric tons; and North, 4.6 million metric tons. Compared with the past harvest, the survey registered an increase of 0.6% in the Southeast, 1.1% in the Central-West, 30.5% in the South and 14.9% in the Northeast. On the other hand, the North Region decreased by 2.4%. As showed in the following figure, Mato Grosso leads the national production of grains, with a contribution of 23.7% to the third estimate for 2013, followed by Paraná (20.6%) and Rio Grande do Sul (15.7%), which altogether represent 60.0% of the national output.

March estimate in relation to the production in 2012

Among the 26 products selected, 18 recorded a positive change in the production estimate over the previous year: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (6.1%), paddy rice (5.1%), oat grain (1.7%), potatoes - 1st crop (5.8%), potatoes - 2nd crop (1.6%), coffee bean (canephora) (3.0%), sugarcane (9.8%), barley grain (23.7%), beans in grain - 1st crop (23.7%), beans in grain - 2nd crop (11.3%), beans in grain - 3rd crop (0.5%), castor beans (4.7%), cassava (0.1%), corn grain - 1st crop (6.8%), corn grain - 2nd crop (3.5%), soybean grain (23.2%), wheat grain (12.1%) and triticale grain (17.6%). Eight products recorded a negative change: upland cotton seed (30.2%), peanuts in the shell - 2nd crop (11.1%), potatoes - 3rd crop (9.5%), cacao nuts (0.4%), coffee bean (arabica) (5.8%), onions (4.1%), oranges (14.9%) and sorghum grain (5.1%).

Highlights in March estimate in relation to February

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production highlights the changes in the production estimate for nine products in March in relation to February: upland cotton (-4.5%), coffea canephora (1.6%), beans - 1st crop (-8.7%), beans - 2nd crop (-2.0%), castor beans (-67.4%), cassava (-4.2%), corn - 1st crop (-1.7%), corn - 2nd crop (2.8%) and soybeans (-2.8%).

UPLAND COTTON (seed) - The March estimate for the national harvest points to a decrease of 163,564 metric tons (-4.5%) over February.

As to the reduction of the cropped area registered in the beginning of the year, Mato Grosso, the main national producer, shows an area 7.5% smaller than that reported in the previous month, mainly due to the price of the product. Bahia reported a significant reduction in the average yield, caused by droughts after cropping, as well as by a pest (caterpillar). In Goiás, the average yield of this crop decreased 0.6%. The three states altogether amount to 88.3% of the national output of upland cotton.

TOTAL COFFEE (bean) - Comparing with February, the March report shows an increase of 0.5% in the expected production, totaling 2.9 million metric tons (49.2 million 60-kilo sacks), and an increase of 1.9% in the average yield. Whereas the production of coffea arabica changed only +0.2% in relation to the previous month, it is worth highlighting the change recorded by coffea canephora.

COFFEA CANEPHORA (bean) - Hot weather and droughts affected some regions of coffea canephora in the state of Espírito Santo, the biggest national producer of this species, along the first quarter of the year. The state production has been reduced by 0.1% against that of February, amounting to 613,403 metric tons (10.2 million sacks). Espírito Santo accounts for 78.6% of the production of canephora in Brazil. Despite the decrease reported in this state, the estimate for the national output in March 2013 is  780,042 metric tons (13.0 million sacks), 1.6% larger than the estimate in February. Rondônia (11.5%), Bahia (10.6%) and Mato Grosso (33.6%) reported significant increase in  production this month.

TOTAL BEANS (in grain) - The national output of beans, considering the three crops, is  3.2 million metric tons. The figure is 5.0% smaller than that reported in February, due to the Northeast, Southeast and Central-West Regions. Every crop recorded decrease in the monthly change of production estimates. The first crop of beans accounts for 46.5% of the national output, the second crop, for 38.5% and the third, for 15.0%.

BEANS - 1st crop (in grain) - A production of 1.5 million metric tons of beans - 1st crop is expected in 2013, 8.7% smaller than the second estimate and decreasing in all the regions. Very affected by droughts, the Northeast reports significant reductions in the states of Pernambuco (-45.4%), Piauí (-24.4%) and Ceará (-5.3%). In the Southeast, the negative highlight is Minas Gerais (-18.9% against February). As to the Central-West, the major reduction in the production estimate was registered in Goiás (-10.6%). In the South, Santa Catarina reports a loss of 5.4% and Rio Grande do Sul, of -6.3%.

BEANS - 2nd crop (in grain)  - A production of 1.2 million metric tons of beans - 2nd crop is expected, a decline of 2.0% against February, mainly due to the significant change in the figures of Minas Gerais and Goiás. Minas Gerais reports an area of approximately 133,929 ha and an expected production of 185,435 metric tons, a smaller estimate than that of the previous month: 10.5% and 18.9%, respectively. In Goiás, the planted area of 18,770 ha is 20.0% smaller than that reported in February. The production forecast decreased 27.7%, also due to the decrease of 9.1% in the average yield. As to Paraná, the largest national producer of this crop, the survey reports an increase of 8.9% in the planted area and of 7.4% in the expected production.

CASTOR BEANS - The output of castor beans is estimated at 26,584 metric tons, pointing to a reduction of 67.4% over February. The Northeast accounts for 94.3% of the production of castor beans in Brazil, being Ceará and Bahia the main producers, each one contributing with 42.2% of the national crop. The effects of the extended drought in Bahia are breaking down the production of castor beans by 83.3% over February, reducing by 59.6% the average yield and by 58.6% the area to be harvested, while Ceará is increasing the production by 1.2%, reflecting an increase of 5.2% in the average yield, though the cropped and harvested areas have been dropping 4.0%.

CASSAVA (in roots) - The output of cassava is estimated at 23.4 million metric tons in 2013, pointing to a reduction of 4.2% over the estimate in February. The cropped and harvested areas decreased 1.9% and 2.8%, respectively, whereas the expected average yield has been decreasing 1.4%. 

The output in the Northeast should reach almost 7 million metric tons, pointing to a reduction of 8.1% in relation to February, due to extended droughts in several producer municipalities in Piauí and Bahia. These two states are reducing their estimates by 121,077 and 553,333 metric tons, respectively, over the report of February. Bahia alone is estimating a reduction of 18.9%. As the major producer of cassava, the North Region also experienced a decrease of 3.7% in the production estimate, particularly influenced by Amazonas and Pará. In the South Region, Santa Catarina reports an output 27.1% smaller than that reported in February. The reports pointed to a reduction by 30.1% in the area to be harvested in the state.

TOTAL CORN (grain) - According to the March report, the total production of corn grain (74.9 million metric tons) increased 0.6%, an expected record. The cropped and harvested areas also registered increases by 1.6% and 0.4%, respectively, while the average yield expanded 0.2% over February. Out of the 74.9 million metric tons, 35.5 million metric tons are corn - 1st crop and 39.4 million metric tons are corn - 2nd crop. As a result, the second crop is larger than the first, representing 52.6% against 47.4%. As corn is well priced in the market, the producers invested in the second crop.

CORN - 1st crop (grain) - Due to re-estimates, some states should be highlighted in terms of the first crop of corn. In the Northeast, which accounts for 12.9% of the national output, Piauí reduced the production estimate by 40.3%. It was caused by the drop in the harvested area (-14.6%) and yield (-30.1%), due to droughts that affect the cerrado region, the largest producer in the state. Ceará also recorded a decrease in the production by 9.6%, due to the negative changes of 7.3% in the harvested and cropped areas and 2.4% in the yield. Bahia, the largest producer in the region and accounting for 5.3% of the national output, has been also affected by the drought in the west region. It reported a drop of 10.1% in the production, due to the fall of 33.5% in the harvested area. If not for the irrigated areas, which increased the average yield in the state by 35.1%, the drop would have been more significant.

Santa Catarina reduced the previous production estimate by 5.1%, while Goiás and Mato Grosso increased their estimates by 4.2% and 24.4%, respectively.  Paraná is still the largest producer with 19.4% of the output (6.9 million metric tons), followed by Minas Gerais (19.2%), which expects a production of 6.8 million metric tons. Both states registered increase in the output this month: 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively.

CORN - 2nd crop (grain) - The expected production of the second crop of corn increased 2.8% in relation to February. It was due to the increase in the area by 4.3%, despite the fall of 1.4% in the yield. The increase was mainly due to Mato Grosso, the largest national producer (41.3%) with 16.3 million metric tons expected this month, a growth of 4.1% over the previous month. As the second largest producer and accounting for 29.1% of the output, Paraná also increased the estimate by 1.5%. The prices of grain favored the increase of the cropped areas in the states that produce the second crop.

SOYBEANS (in grain) - The March estimate for the 2013 harvest is 27.6 million hectares of cropped area, 0.4% larger than that reported in the previous month. The expected average yield is 2,938 kg/ha and the expected production is 80.9 million metric tons, 3.2% and 2.8% smaller, respectively.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

To address the needs of users of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency (Conab) of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October of 2007.

The 2012 variables may be rectified in March, according to the LSPA methodology.