In July, the industrial sector kept the slight increase of productivity, mainly seen in the second consecutive positive results over the immediately previous month: 0.2% in June and 0.3% in July. It is worth mentioning that, even with these two positive rates, industry did not eliminate the losses accumulated in the period May 12/February 13 (-2.0%) and it is 5.2% below the record level reached in May last year. The evolution of the quarterly moving average index, in spite of the predominantly negative performance observed since August last year, reinforces this moment of slight gain of dynamism by the industrial sector, once this indicator has recorded declining pace of increase in the last three months: May (0.7%), June (-0.4%) and July (-0.1%).

In comparisons with similar periods in the previous year, the rate of industrial production remained negative, but with less significance than in the last few months: the monthly index of July 2012 reduced its magnitude versus the results of April, May and June, and the indicator accumulated in the period January-July recorded a more moderate change than observed in the end of the first semester of the year.

Among the 27 subsectors surveyed, 12 recorded increase from June to July

In the positive change of 0.3% of industrial activity from June to July, 12 of the 27 subsectors surveyed recorded production increase, being the main highlight the subsectors of motor vehicles (4.9%), food products (2.1%) and machinery and equipment (3.0%). It is also worth mentioning that, with the result of this month, the first activity, affected by the increased production of cars, presented its second consecutive positive rate, having accumulated, in this period, increase of 8.1%; the second activity interrupted a three-month series of negative rates, with accumulated loss of 7.8%; and the last one increased 5.4% in four months of consecutive positive results. Other relevant positive contributions to the overall result of industry came from medical and optical products, appliances and equipment and others (16.8%), other chemical products (1.8%), rubber and plastic (3.2%) and non-metallic minerals (2.7%) On the other hand, among the subsectors which recorded decrease of output, the most relevant performances to the overall average were those of metal products (-6.7%), other transportation equipment (-7.4%), pharmaceuticals (-4.8%),

electronic material and communication equipment and apparatus (-4.1%) and office machinery and computer equipment (-4.8%).  It is worth mentioning that, except for the first sector which recorded decrease for the second consecutive month, the other activities had positive results last June:  10.8%, 8.7%, 7.8% and 3.1%, respectively. 

Among the categories of use, also in comparison with the immediately previous month, the most significant increase was that of capital goods (1.0%), which had the second consecutive result, having accumulated, in the period, increase of 2.4%. The sectors producing durable consumer goods (0.8%) and intermediate goods (0.5%) also recorded positive rates in July 2012, with an accumulated result of 5.7% in the former, in two consecutive months of production increase, and interruption of a four-month period of decrease, which accumulated loss of 2.5%, in the latter. On the other hand, semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-0.6%) was the only recording  decrease in production in the month, having lost part of the increase of last June (1.6%).

Quarterly moving average changes by -0.1% in July

Also in the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the total of industry recorded negative change of 0.1% in the quarter which ended in July over the level of the previous month, and maintained the predominantly negative performance observed since August 2011. It is worth mentioning that the negative result of this month was less significant that those of May (-0.7%) and June (-0.4%). Among the categories of use, and also in relation to the movement of this index on the margin, negative rates were recorded by semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-0.5%) and intermediate goods (-0.2%), which remained on a downward trend as started last March and April, respectively. The segment of durable consumer goods grew 1.2% in July over the level in the previous month, having accelerated the pace compared with the indexes of May (0.2%) and June (0.8%).  The sector which produces capital goods, having recorded change of 0.2%, also had a positive rate this month, the four consecutive one in this type of indicator, and accumulated, in this period, expansion of 3.9%.

Industrial output decreased 2.9% compared with figure in July 2011

Compared with the same month in the previous year, the industrial output decreased 2.9% in July 2012, at a pace of decrease below that of April (-3.5%), May (-4.4%) and June (-5.6%). It is important to mention that July 2012 (22 days) had one more business day than the previous year (21). Even so, the index of this month had a widespread profile of negative results, once all categories of use and most of (17) the 27 activities surveyed recorded decrease. The subsectors of motor vehicles, which recorded 12.3%, and editing, printing and reproduction of recorded media (-22.0%) accounted for the main negative contributions to the formation of the average of industry, affected, mainly, by the reduced output of trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, diesel for trucks and buses, pieces and chassis with engines for buses and trucks, in the former, and magazines, newspapers, cds and other printed material for commercial use, in the latter. Other relevant negative contributions to the national came from the subsectors of food products (-5.3%), electronic material and communication equipment and apparatus (20%), metallurgy (-4.9%), tobacco (-14.5%), electric machinery and apparatus (-6.2%) and office machinery and computer equipment (-6.7%). In terms of products, the most significant negative contributions in these subsectors were, respectively, crystallized sugar and concentrated orange juice; mobile telephones and television sets; copper bars and square bars, carbon steel ingots, blocks, rods or plates and bars of other steel alloys; processed tobacco and cigarettes; electric  alarm apparatus, no breaks and electric engines; and computer monitors and printers.  On the contrary, considering the comparison with July 2011, the main impacts among the ten subsectors which recorded positive rates came from: other chemical products (5.4%), machinery and equipment (4.0%), pharmaceuticals (7.5%), petroleum refining and alcohol production (3.9%) and other transportation equipment (8.3%), mainly affected by the items: herbicides for agricultural use, in the first subsector; refrigerators and freezers, in the second; medicines, in the third; gasoline, diesel and other fuel oils, in the fourth; and airplanes, in the last. The index by categories of use, also in the comparison with the same period in the previous year, recorded negative rates in July 2012, with capital goods (-9.1%) recording pace of decrease above the total of industry (-2.9%). At the same time, durable consumer goods (-2.7%), semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-2.3%) and intermediate goods (-1.7%) recorded less significant increase in this type of comparison. The sector of capital goods (-9.1%) had its result affected by the decrease in most of its subsectors, being the main highlight the decrease of 10.6% recorded by capital goods for transportation equipment, also severely affected by the reduced production of trucks, tractor-trucks for trailers and semi-trailers and pieces and chassis with engines for buses and trucks. It is also worth mentioning the negative rates observed in capital goods for mixed use (-2.8%), for construction (-16.8%), for industrial use (-4.1%) and for electricity (-5.4%), whereas the subsector of capital goods for agricultural use, with change of 0.7% in July 2012, recorded the only positive result in this category of use in the monthly index.

The negative performance of durable consumer goods (-2.7%) in this month was mainly influenced by the reduced production of motorcycles (-52.9%), due to the period of collective vacation in companies of this sector, mobile telephones (-33.0%) and brown appliances (-9.6%). In this category of use, the main positive impacts came from automobiles (3.1%), white appliances (34.7%) and furniture (4.8%). The decline of production among semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-2.3%) was influenced, to a great extent, by the negative results which came from other non-durable goods (-4.5%), food products and beverages elaborated for domestic consumption (-2.1%) and semi-durable goods (-5.2%), affected by the reduced production of books, magazines, cigarettes and medicines, in the former subsector, and of concentrated orange juice and meat and poultry giblets, in the second; and cds, leather sneakers, female slacks and t-shirts, in the last one. The subsector of fuels (5.7%) recorded positive increase in this category of use, mainly affected by the increasing output of gasoline, once the production of alcohol remains in decline. The sector of intermediate goods (-1.7%) was influenced by the decline of output of the products associated to motor vehicles (-16.4%), food products (-9.6%), metallurgy (-4.9%), rubber and plastic (-2.8%), textiles (-3.2%), mining and quarrying industry (-1.1%) and non-metallic minerals (-1.7%), whereas the positive influences were recorded by other chemical products (5.7%0, petroleum refining and alcohol production (2.7%), pulp, paper and paper products (1.2%) and metal products (2.1%).

Still in this category of use, it is also worth mentioning the results of the groups inputs for civil construction (2.0%), which increased again after having interrupted, in June (-2.5%) a period of 13 consecutive months with positive results, and of packages (-0.8%), which recorded the seventh decrease in this type of comparison.

Index accumulated in the first seven months falls 3.7%

In the index accumulated of the first seven months of 2012, compared with the same period in the previous year, there was decrease of 3.7% in the total of industry, with negative rates in all the categories of use, 18 of the 27 subsectors, 46 of the 76 subsectors and 58.8% of the 755 products investigated. Among the activities, motor vehicles, with decrease of 17.2% remained as the main negative influence in the formation of the general index, being affected, to a great extent, by the reduction of output of most products surveyed in this sector (approximately 85%), being the main highlight the decrease of output of trucks, cars, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers and car pieces.

It is also important to mention the negative contributions from electronic material and communication equipment and apparatus (-17.6%), food products (-2.8%), metallurgy (-4.8%), electric machinery and apparatus (-9.0%), machinery and equipment (-2.7%), office machinery and computer equipment (-11.1%), editing, printing and reproduction of recorded media (-4.8%), rubber and plastic (-4.6%), tobacco (-17.4%) and apparel and accessories (-12.0%).   

The main highlights in these activities were, respectively, the reduced production of the items mobile telephones and telephone switching apparatuses; crystallized sugar; carbon steel ingots, blocks, rods or plates and bars of other steel alloys, electric engines and no breaks; wheel loaders, air conditioning appliances for central use, wall/window air conditioning appliances, appliances to transport or lift goods,

machining centers for metals and microwave ovens; computer monitors, monitors and printers; magazines, books, newspapers and other printed material for commerical use; tires; processed tobacco; and cotton slacks, dresses and shirts.

Among the nine activities which recorded increase of production, the main influences over the total of industry were other chemical products (3.8%), petroleum refining and alcohol production (3.6%) and other transportation equipment (7.2%), mainly affected by the bigger production of herbicides for agricultural use and paints and varnishes for construction, in the first subsector, gasoline, diesel and other fuel oils, in the second, and airplanes, in the last one.

Among the categories of use, the profile of results for the period January-July 2012 confirmed the bigger dynamism in capital goods (-12.0%) and durable consumer goods (-8.4%), mainly affected by the reduced production of capital goods for transportation, trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, chassis with engines for buses and trucks, and vehicles for the transportation of goods, in the first sector, and cars, mobile telephones and motorcycles, in the second.  The production of intermediate goods decreased by 2.5% in terms of the accumulated index in the first seven months of 2012, whereas semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods recorded negative change of 0.5%. 

In July 2012, the seasonally-adjusted industrial production recorded change of 0.3% over the index of the immediately previous month; it is the second consecutive positive result in this type of comparison, with accumulated increase 0f 0.55 in the period. Compared with the same month in the previous year, the industrial sector recorded decrease in production (2.9%), the 11^th consecutive negative rate in this type of comparison, but, at the same time, the least significant since March/2012 (-2.3%).  As a result, the index accumulated in the first seven months of the year recorded decrease of 3.7%, being below that of the end of the first semester of 2012 (-3.8%).  The annualized rate, the indicator accumulated in the last 12 months, having decreased 2.5% in July 2012, has remained on an upward trend since October 2010 (11.8%) and recorded the most significant negative result since February 2010 (-2.6%).  The quarterly moving average index changed by -0.1%.

The complete publication is available at  www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/indicadores/industria/pimpfbr/default.shtm