The national harvest of cereal, legumes and oilseeds (cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) registers a production of 160.7 million metric tons, 0.4% higher than the record harvest in 2010 (160.1 million metric tons) and 0.3% higher than the estimate of May (160.3million metric tons). That result is presented in the sixth Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) relative to June 2012.

The area to be harvested in 2012, of 49.4 million hectares, presents an increase of 1.6% compared with the harvested area in 2011, but it is 0.9% lower than the previous month’s.

The three main cultures (rice, corn and soybean), which altogether represent 91.0% of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseed - account for 84.8% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, rice presents an area reduction of 13.2%, corn, an expansion of 10.5% and soybean, an advance of 3.5%. Concerning production, rice and soybean posted a drop of 14.8% and 12.3%, respectively, whereas corn recordes a growth of 22.7%.

The complete publication can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presents the following distribution: Central-West region, 66.8 million metric tons; South, 57.2 million metric tons; Southeast, 19.1 million metric tons; Northeast, 13.3 million metric tons and North, 4.4 million metric tons. Compared with the previous harvest, increases were recorded in the North (0.5%), Southeast (11.0%) and Central-West regions (19.1%) and decreases, in the South (15.7%) and Northeast regions (9.2%).  Mato Grosso leads the national production of grains, with a contribution of 23.5%, followed by Paraná with 19.6% and Rio Grande do Sul, with 12.3%. The three states together account for 55.4% of the national overall.

June’s estimate in relation to the output obtained in 2011

Among the 26 products selected, half presented positive change in the output estimate in relation to the previous year:  herbaceous raw cotton (4.0%), peanut in the shell 1^st harvest (25.3%), oat in grain (12.3%), potato 3^rd harvest (1.3%), coffee in grain  - arabica (16.5% ), coffee in grain  - canephora (9.7%), onion (2.0%), barley in grain (14.3%), beans in grain 2^nd  harvest (8.0%), beans in grain 3^rd harvest (0.7%), orange (0.1%), corn in grain 2^nd harvest (59.6%) and triticale in grain (3.6%).  Other 13 products record a negative change: peanut in the shell 2^nd harvest (29.8%), paddy rice (14.8%), potato 1^st harvest (7.8%), potato 2^nd harvest (20.1%), cacao nut (2.9%), sugarcane (7,4%), beans in grain 1^st harvest (36.3%), castor beans (60.8%), cassava (2.8%), corn in grain 1^st harvest (1.1%), soybean in grain (12.3%), sorghum in grain (5.8%) and wheat in grain (8.0%).

Highlights in June’s estimate in relation to May 2012

The monthly changes of eight products – positive or negative - in the output estimates, stand out as compared to May: coffee in grain – arabica (+0.2%), coffee in grain – canephora (+3.4%), sugarcane (-11.2%), beans in grain 1^st harvest  (-6.4%), beans in grain 2^nd harvest  (-14.3%), beans in grain 3^rd harvest  (+6.5%), corn in grain 2nd harvest (+2.5%) and wheat in grain (+3.2%).

COFFEA  ARABICA (in grain) – According to June’s estimate, the coffea arabica  harvest preview for 2012 is 2,289,282 t (38.2 million bags of 60 kg), which means an increase of 0.2% in relation to May’s estimate. The states responsible for the increase in this estimate were Pernambuco and the Federal District. The total area of production covers 1,762,738 ha, a little smaller than last month’s (0.1%). The area to be harvested, of 1,586,015 ha, also presents a slight decrease. The average yield rose to 0.2%.

COFFEA CANEPHORA (in grain) – The national production, of  759,796 metric tons (12,7 million of bags of 60 kg), is 3.4% higher than the one estimated in May, as well as the productivity. Espírito Santo, the  biggest Brazilian producer, presents advances in the yield of 4.4% and a rise of 4,5% in the expected output, 9.7 million bags -  results attributed to weather conditions, to the adequate crop treatment and to irrigation.  The problems seen in the first quarter, as high temperatures and draughts in the beginning of the year, did not interfere with those numbers, and the prospection for the crops, which are in an ongoing harvest, is still positive.

SUGARCANE – June’s estimate for production is 662,014,177 metric tons, a downturn of 7.4% in relation to 2011 and of 11.2% in comparison to May. Compared to the previous years, there was a delay in the milling, only started in May, in great part of the mills and distilleries of the Center South. The main reason was December’s draught and the low rainfall in January and February, which delayed the plant development, contracting the average yield 5.8% over the previous month.  The greatest fall was seen in São Paulo, which negatively reassessed the estimates in 10.8% in the area to be harvested, 9.6% in the average yield and 19.3% in the production, in a total reduction of 81.3 million of metric tons, in absolute terms. Another problem was the excessive rain that hit many regions in the state, in the last days, delayed the crops and affected the sugarcane quality, since it reduced the sucrose level.

BEANS (in grain) – The national production of beans in grain, estimated in 2,884,944t, indicates a reduction of 8.2% in relation to May, a consequence of the negative change observed mainly in the states of Tocantins (80.0%),  Ceará (59.4%), Bahia (51.6%) and Paraná (3.6%). The decrease was not bigger because of the positive contribution to the output estimates in São Paulo (11.7%), Mato Grosso do Sul (15.4%), Minas Gerais (0.8%) and Maranhão (4.3%).

 The output volume is distributed in 43.1% to the 1^st harvest (1,244,252t), 41.7% to the 2^nd harvest (1,201,957t) and 15.2% to the 3^rd harvest of beans (438,735t).

The 1^st beans harvest registers a production 6.4% lower than the one recorded in the 5^th LSPA, with a reduction of area in almost all states.  The South Region, the biggest producer of 1^st harvest beans, presents a volume of 504,465, 0.3% below May, confirming the output falling tendency recorded in the previous surveys, due to draughts.  The Northeast Region, which still did not finish the harvest in all states, estimates a production of 170,598 metric tons, 34.4% lower than the previous month’s. The reduction in the planted area is due to the lack of plantation and to rain instability.

For the 2^nd harvest beans, the expected output records downturn of 14.3% in relation to May’s. There was a little increase of area in the South (1.7%), Southeast (0.3%) and Central-West regions (1.3%), pushed by beans’ price recovery. On the other hand, the reduction of 40.5% of the planted area in the Northeast region is attributable to the draughts in the plantation period. In Paraná, the biggest national producer (26.7% of the output), the estimate is a planted area, in this crop, of 223,456 ha (1.6% larger than the previous month’s) and a production of 321,433 metric tons of the product (7.3% smaller than the last).  The heavy rainfall provoked a drop in the average yield of the plantation, estimated in 1,438 kg/ha, 8.8% lower than May’s estimate.

The 3^rd harvest beans goes through an increase of 6.5% in the output estimate, under the influence of the 4.3% growth of the planted area. São Paulo reports rises in the planted area and production, respectively, of 25.7% and 61.2%. Based on the quite attractive prices of carioca and black beans, there is a chance of increase in the area of irrigated beans.

CORN (in grain) – In June, the national production of corn in grain is estimated in 69,057,729 metric tons, 0.8 % bigger than May’s, with a reduction of 0.9% in the 1^st harvest and a rise of 2.5% in the 2^nd, which is still the biggest between the two of them. The output, a record, for both harvests, surpasses in 22.7% the total production of 2011 and the planted area is 11.6% bigger. The numbers reflect the good prices of the products in the market.

As the 1^st harvest of corn is already in the final process of the crops, basically there were not any changes in this period of analysis. The small negative change in the production is due, principally, to the states of the North and Northeast regions, which posted a decrease of 7.8% and 5.9% in June’s production, respectively.

The 2^nd harvest of corn is still in the beginning of the crops. The expected rises in the production (estimated in 35,275,962 metric tons) and average yield are: 2.5% and 4.6%, respectively. However, the planted area and the area to be harvested shrank 2.0%. The Northeast region still influences the estimate of harvest decrease, due to the draughts. The plantation projections for this region shrank 32.1% in the areas to be planted and harvested and 10.7% in the production, especially because of the reduction in the estimate of production and plantation area in Bahia (26.1% and 47.1%, respectively).  

The Central-West region, the biggest producer of 2^nd harvest corn, with 62.9% of the national production, presented a positive change of 3.7% in the production, of 2.5% in the average yield and 1.3% in the planted area and area to be harvested.  Mato Grosso do Sul was the main responsible for these figures, accounting for rises in the production (16.0%), yield (12.8%) and area (2.8%).   In the South region, Paraná, the second bigger producer, with 29.3% of the national production, estimated an output rise of 0.9% for June. Due to corn’s good prices, producers invested more in technology (seeds, fertilizers, inputs), with positive results, mainly, in the yield; favorable weather conditions also generate good expectations for the production.

WHEAT (in grain) – The output estimate grew 3.2% in relation to May, reflecting the rise of the planted area of Paraná (10.1%), the biggest producer of the cereal. The rainfalls improved significantly in the South, however, in Rio Grande do Sul, they are not quite enough to ensure the plantation. Wheat’s market price is considered low and is affected by the competition with the imported wheat. Besides, this product’s illiquidity in the last harvest should be considered in the producers’ process of decision making.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

To address the needs of users of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency (Conab) of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October of 2007.