The industrial output contracted 0.9% between April and May, in the seasonally adjusted series, the third negative result in a row in that type of comparison, accumulating a loss of 2.0% in this period.  Against the same month a year ago, the industry overall posted a drop of 4.3% in May 2012, the ninth negative result in a row in this kind of comparison and the sharpest since September 2009 (-7.6%). Thus, the industrial sector accumulates a loss of 3.4% in the first five months of 2012. The annual rate, which is the accumulated indicator of the last twelve months, after retracting 1.8% in May 2012, kept a downward trend started in October 2010 (11.8%) and registered the most significant negative rate since February 2010 (-2.6%).

The complete publication of the survey can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/industria/pimpfbr/default.shtm

Decline in the Industry occurred in 14 of the 27 sectors surveyed

The fall of 0.9% of the industrial activity between April and May was attributable to the output contraction of 14 of the 27 sectors surveyed. The main negative impacts were seen in the sectors of motor vehicles (-4.5%) and of food products (-3.4%), the former interrupting three months of consecutive positive rates with a growth of 22,7% in this period, and the latter accumulating a loss of 7,1% in two months of output drops in a row .   Other relevant negative contributions to the industry overall came from: electronic material, communication equipment and devices (-10.9%), basic metals (-2.4%), pulp, paper and paper products (-3.0%), other chemical products (-1.0%) and footwear and leather articles (-5.3%).  On the other hand, among the activities that boosted the production, the most important performances to the overall result were registered by fabricated metal products (13.2%), which eliminated the loss of 6.1% accumulated in three months of negative consecutive rates, mining and quarrying (1.5%), rubber and plastic (2.6%), machinery and equipment (1.2%) and petroleum refinement and alcohol production (0.9%).

Among the categories of use, in the comparison with the immediately previous month, the manufacturing sectors of durable consumer goods (-2.2%), of durable and semi-durable consumer goods (-2.1%) and of capital goods (-1.8%) posted negative rates in May 2012. Based on this month’s result, the former sector intensified the loss of 0.6% recorded last April, the second  posted the third consecutive month of output losses, accumulating in this period a drop of 4.8%, and the latter eliminated part of the gain of 9.4% accumulated in the January/April 2012 period. Conversely, the sector of intermediate goods, recording a 0,2% rise in May 2012, was the only positive result among the categories of use, after two consecutive months of negative rates that accumulated a loss of 1.2%.

Quarterly Moving Average

In the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the industry overall posted a drop of 0.7% in the quarter ended in May against the previous month, keeping the prevailing downward trend seen since August 2011. Among the categories of use, in relation to the index movement at margin, the negative highlight was the production of durable and semi-durable consumer goods, which contracted 1.6%, sharpening the falling pace against the previous month’s result (-0.5%).     The segment of intermediate goods (-0.3%) also receded, after recording a slight positive change of 0.2%  last April, whereas the sector of durable consumer goods remained stable in May (0,0%) over the previous month’s figure, after having posted a clear downward trend since January 2012. The sector of capital goods (0,5%) recorded the only positive rate this month among the categories of use, but with a reduction in the growth intensity, since it had already signaled an expansion of 3,0% in April.

 Industry shrinks 4.3% in comparison with May of 2011

Compared to May 2011, the industrial sector fell 4.3%, with 17 of the 27 activities surveyed posting negative rates. The sector of motor vehicles, which contracted 16.8%, exerted the greatest negative influence, influenced by the downfall of approximately 75% of the products surveyed in the sector, with the following highlights: tractor truck for trailers and semi-trailers, trucks, automobiles, chassis with engines for buses and trucks, diesel engines and car parts.  Other relevant negative contributions came from food (-6.1%), electronic material and communication equipment and apparatus  (-24.3%), basic metals (-5.8%), tobacco (-23.3%), machinery and equipment (-3.9%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-9.3%), pharmaceutical articles (-5.0%) and apparel and accessories (-10.6%).   Among the ten sectors that recorded positive rates, the main impacts were in other transportation equipment (6.3%), publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media (4.0%), other chemical products (2.1%) and mining and quarrying industries (2.2%), pushed by airplanes, in the first segment, books, in the second, herbicides for agricultural purposes and paints and varnish for construction, in the third, and iron ore and crude petroleum oil in the last. 

The indexes by category of use, still comparing with the same month a year ago, confirm the profile of predominance of negative rates in the industrial sector in May of 2011. Capital goods (-12.2%) and durable consumer goods (-9.5%) recorded a dropping pace higher than that of the overall industry (-4.3%); whereas intermediate goods and semi- and non-durable consumer goods, both with -2.7%, recorded more moderate losses in this kind of comparison.  The sector of capital goods, which registered the sharpest drop among the categories of use in the monthly index, had its result influenced by the decrease in the majority of its subsectors, with a highlight to the drop of 16.8%, recorded by capital goods for transportation equipment, still very influenced by the lower production of tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, trucks and chassis with engines for buses and trucks.   The negative result registered by durable consumer goods was particularly leveraged by the lowest production of cell phones (-37.1%), automobiles (-5.3%), “brown line” house appliances (-0.4%), motorcycles (-16.8%) and other house appliances – except for the “white and brown lines” (25.5%). In this category of use, the main positive results are due to a larger production of house appliances of the “white line” (8.5%) and and of articles of furniture (22.3%).

The sectors of intermediate goods and of semi- and non-durable consumer goods also posted a drop in the production, with the former pointing to the third negative result in a row in this kind of comparison, and the latter, the sharpest drop since September 2009 (-3.9%). In the first segment, the fall seen in May 2012 was reinforced by the negative behavior of the products related to the activities of motor vehicles (-15.6%), food (-12.2%), basic metals (-5.8%), textiles (-5.9%), non-metallic minerals (-1.6%), rubber and plastic (-1.9%) and fabricated metal products (-1.6%), whereas the positive rates were recorded in petroleum refinement and alcohol production (4.6%), other chemical products (3.0%) and mining and quarrying industries (2.2%).  The output decline in the semi- and non-durable consumer goods was influenced by the negative result in all of its groups:  fuels (-7.7%), semi-durable articles (-6.2%), food and beverages for domestic consumption (-1.4%) and other non-durable articles (-1.1%).

Index accumulated in 2012 declines 3.4%

In the accumulated index for January- May 2012, over the same period in the previous year, the retraction was of 3.4%, mainly due to the negative results in three of the four categories of use and in 15 of the 27 sectors surveyed.  Among the activities, the production of motor vehicles, presenting a drop of 18.1%, remained with the major negative influence over the general index, reinforced mainly by the reduction in the production of the majority of the products surveyed in the sector. The highlights were the lowest production of automobiles, trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, chassis with engine for buses and trucks and vehicles for the transportation of goods .  It is also worth mentioning the negative contribution from electronic material and communication equipment and apparatus (-16.0%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-9.4%), machinery and equipment (-3.4%), basic metals (-4.2%), pharmaceutical articles (-5.0%), office machinery and computer equipment (-13.1%), textiles (-7.5%) rubber and plastic (-4.4%) and apparel and accessories (-12.8%).  Among the 12 segments that posted an increase in the output, the main influences were exerted by the sectors of other chemical products (4.4%), petroleum refinement and alcohol production (3.6%) and other transportation equipment (5.5%), especially reinforced by a larger production of herbicides for agricultural purposes, in the first sector, motor gasoline and diesel fuel and other oil fuels, in the second, and airplanes in the last.

Among the categories of use, the nature of the results for the first five months of 2012 confirmed the least dynamic outputs for capital goods (-12.0%) and durable consumer goods (-10.0%), influenced by the lowest production of capital goods for transportation (trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, chassis with engine for trucks and vehicles for the transportation of goods), in the first group, and of automobiles and cell phones in the second. The sectors of intermediate goods (-2.0%) recorded a less sharp drop than the industry average (-3.4%), whereas the segment of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (0.0%) repeated the standards of the same period a year ago.