The third estimate of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds points to a production of 158.6 million tonnes, 0.9% lower than the one obtained in 2011 (160.1 million tonnes) and 0.7% higher than the estimate of February. The area to be harvested in 2012, of 50.6 million hectares, presents an increase of 4.0% compared with the harvested area in 2011 and an increase of 0.6% in relation to the previous month. The three main cultures, rice, corn and soybean - which altogether represent 90.9% of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseed - account for 83.6% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, rice presents a reduction of 10.4% in the area to be harvested, whereas there is an expansion in the area of corn (13.9%) and of soybean (2.9%).  Concerning production, rice and soybean post drops of, respectively, 14.2% and 11.1%, and corn presents a rise of 17.3% in comparison with 2011. The complete publication is available at https://www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa

Among the major regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presents the following distribution: Central-West region, 62.8 million tonnes; South, 56.5 million tonnes; Southeast, 18.4 million tonnes; Northeast, 16.4 million tonnes; and North, 4.5 million tonnes. Compared with the previous harvest, increases are recorded in the following regions: Northeast (12.5%), Southeast (7.1%), North (2.3%) and Central-West (12.0%). In the South region, there was a drop of 16.8%. Mato Grosso leads the national production of grains with a contribution of 23.1%, followed by Paraná, with 19.3% and Rio Grande do Sul, with 12.5%. These states together represent 54.9% of the national output.

March estimate in relation to the production of 2011

Among the 26 products selected, 11 presented positive change in the production estimate in relation to the previous year:  herbaceous cotton seed (1.5%), 2nd harvest peanut in the shell (3.1%), 3rd harvest potato (3.3%), coffee in grain – arabica (15.5%), coffee in grain – canephora (6.0%), sugarcane (3.9%), 2nd harvest beans in grain (25.6%), cassava (2.8%), 1st harvest corn in grain (2.2%), 2nd harvest corn in grain (40.7%) and triticale in grain (4.6%).  15 products record a negative change: 1^st harvest peanut in the shell (2.9%), rice in husk (14.2%), oat in grain (11.9%), 1^st harvest potato (7.7%), 2^nd harvest potato (3.9%), cacao nut (2.2%), onion (0.2%), barley in grain (13.9%), 1^st harvest beans in grain (12.5%), 3^rd harvest beans in grain (8.2%), orange (1.8%), castor beans (42.3%), soybean in grain (11.1%), sorghum in grain (19.4%), and wheat in grain (9.9%).

Highlights in March estimate in relation to February of 2012

RICE (paddy) - The expected rice production of 11.5 million tonnes is 1.2% lower than the last result.  Such drop is due to Rio Grande do Sul, the biggest producer, with 64.8% of contribution in the national production.   The current estimate of the production in the state is 2.0% lower than the result of February because of the reduction in the estimate of the area to be harvested (1.2%) and in the average yield (0.8%), from 7,247 kg/ha to 7,189 kg/ha in March. The sowing delay, coupled with the reduced water supply for irrigation purposes as a result of drought and of the low level of the reservoirs, contributed to this reduction. In Santa Catarina, the second biggest producer (8.8% of the total production), there were approximately 1,200 hectares of lost area in irrigated rice (due to hail) and 101 hectares in upland rice (due to droughts), the average yield of crops fell by 1.3%, which caused a drop of 1.9% in the production estimate, when compared to the last result.

COFFEE (in grain) – Considering arabica and canephora together, the national harvest is estimated in 3,004,725 t (50.1 million bags of 60 kg), meaning a decrease of 1.6% in relation to February. The total area of production covers 2,355,693 ha, an expansion of 2.1%. The area to be harvested, of 2,118,412 ha, presents a change of -0.2%. The average yield falls 1.4% in relation to the previous month estimate. A period of droughts (Indian summer) in important regions was registered in the Southeast: Zona da Mata, in Minas Gerais (-1.1%) and Espírito Santo (-4.1%). 

BEANS (in grain) 1^st harvest - The estimated production is 1,708,768 tonnes, 2.7% lower than in February.  The South region, which was the biggest producer in 2011 (38.8%), reduced its contribution to 29.9% due to scarce rains. The Northeast region expects a production of 619,408 tonnes, which makes it the biggest producer in the 1^st harvest, with 36.2% of the national production.

BEANS (in grain) 2^nd harvest – The expected production is 3.1% higher than the estimate of February, reaching 1,397,398 tonnes, which is due to an estimate of a larger planted area in Paraná, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso and Goiás, as a result of the good prices at the moment of plantation.  There were expansions in the planted area in Mato Grosso (21.7%) and in Goiás (20.2%) with an expectation of a rise of 20.1% and 19.9% in the production, respectively.

CORN (in grain) Total – The two corn harvests together might reach a production of 66.0 million tonnes, up 4.3% in relation to the previous result. The rise reflects a positive change in the planted area (2.9%) and in the average yield (2.1%).

CORN (in grain) 2^nd harvest – The preview for the second harvest corn presents an increase of 6.1% in the planted area, 2.8% in the average yield and 9.0% in the production as compared to February.  Mato Grosso, this harvest biggest producer (37.6%), had an expansion in the planted area (10.7%) in relation to the previous estimate, due to the good price of the product and to a wider planting window in relation to the previous year, because of the rainy season within the historical average.

SOYBEANS (in grain) - The estimated production of soybeans in 2012 (66.6 million tonnes) is 1.8% lower than in February.   Even though the area to be harvested (24,741,470 ha) posts a rise of 0.7%, the expected average yield (2,692 kg/ha) registers a drop of 2.5%.   The decrease in the production is due to the unfavorable climate conditions, mainly in the South region.  This region registered a rise of 0.9% in the area to be harvested. However, there was a drop of 7.2% in the average yield, resulting in a reduction of 6.4% in the production estimate. Rio Grande do Sul was the state which was mostly affected by droughts, pointing to a decrease of 14.8% in the average yield and a fall of 14.6% in the production contrasted with the last result.    The Central-West region, accounting for 52.6% of the production of the grain this year, had a negative change of its production in comparison with the previous month (-0.1%) - a consequence of the drop of 0.7% in the estimates of the average yield.   Mato Grosso, the main national producer (32.7%), was responsible for the reduction in the estimates of the regional production, due to a lower estimate of the average yield (1.4%), now 3,133 kg/ha.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds (cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in October, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.