The national grain harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds points to a production of 158.7 million metric tons, 0.7% below that of 2011 (159.9 million metric tons) and 1.0% below the previous forecast (160.3 million metric tons).  This decrease was a consequence of the dry period observed from December to January, mainly in the South Region. In terms of production, rice and soybeans present, in this same order, decreases of 14.9% and 6.4%, whereas corn recorded an 11.4% decrease. Considering only summer-harvest products (herbaceous cotton, 1^st harvest peanuts, rice, castor beans, 1^st harvest corn and soybeans), the expected output is 121.1 million metric tons, 5.3% below that reached by this same items in 2011 (127.9 million metric tons).

The area to be harvested in 2012, of 50.6 million hectares, increased by 4.0% compared with the 2011 figure. The three main crops (rice, corn and soybeans), which, together, represent 90.7% of the amount produced, account for 83.0% of the area to be harvested.  Compared with figures in the previous year, the area planted with rice shows decrease of 9.2%, whereas corn and soybeans recorded positive changes of, respectively, 12.3% and 2.5%.   

The complete publication can be seen at www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

Among the areas, the produced volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presents the following distribution: Central West, 60.8 million metric tons; South Region, 59.0 million metric tons; Southeast, 18.1 million metric tons; Northeast Region, 16.5 million metric tons; and North Region, 4.3 million metric tons. Compared with figures in the previous harvest, there were increments in the Northeast (12.0%); Southeast (5.4%) and Central West (8.5%), and decline in the North (0.6%) and South (12.7%). Mato Grosso is the leader, the main national producer of grains, with 22.2%. It is followed by Paraná, with 19.6%, and Rio Grande do Sul, with 13.4%. Together, these states represent 55.2% of the total volume of grain production in the country.  

January estimate versus 2011 output

Eight of the 26 products selected recorded positive changes in the production estimate over 2011: herbaceous raw cotton (1.5%), coffee beans – arabica (13.5%) and canephora (3.1%) – sugarcane (8.8%), 2^nd harvest beans (16.2%), castor beans in segments (34.2%), 1^st harvest grain corn (0.2%) and 2^nd harvest grain corn (29.1%). Eighteen products recorded negative changes:1^st harvest peanuts in shell (8.4%), 2^nd harvest peanuts in husk (0.6%), paddy rice (14.9%), oats in grain (10.8%), 1st harvest potatoes (9.1%), 2nd harvest potatoes (11.4%), 3rd harvest potatoes (2.0%), cacao beans (6.2%), onions (3.6%), barley in grain (13.3%), 1st harvest beans (9.0%), 3rd harvest beans (5.7%), onions (8.3%), cassava (1.5%), grain soybean (6.4%), sorghum in grain (7.7%), wheat in grain (11.0%) and triticale in grain (2.6%).

Main highlights in the January 2012 estimate versus 2011 output

HERBACEOUS RAW COTTON – The estimated output for this product in 2012 is 5.1 million metric tons, with an increment of 1.5% over 2011 (5.0 million metric tons). Mato Grosso remains as the main producer (50.0%), in spite of having had its planting area reduced by 3.7% (692,866 ha). 

PADDY RICE - The estimated output is 11.4 million metric tons, 14.9% less than in 2011 (13.4 million metric tons). This evaluation has contributed to the continuation of the scenario of the third forecast (11.9 million metric tons).  This decrease resulted mainly from the figures observed in Rio Grande do Sul, the main producer, with 64.4% of participation in the national output, with a 17.6% decrease in production and a 10.1% decrease in the planted area in relation to 2011. There is also a tendency to decrease of plated area, now evaluated at 1.1 million hectares, as a consequence of the low prices of the product and the scarcity of water in levees of some areas of the state.  

COFFEE BEANS – Starting this month, IBGE will provide separate information about the two types of coffee produced in the country, arabica and canephora. In January, the national harvest of coffee (total), considering the two types together, is expected to reach 2,957,597 t or 49.3 million 60-kg bags.  The increase of production compared with figures of the 2011 harvest is estimated to be 10.8%, despite the decrease of 0.4%, that is, 2,100,999 ha, estimated for the harvesting area. The overall area planted with the two types is 2,300,2186 ha.  

With reference to arabica coffee (beans), the country is expected to produce, in 2012, 2,238,857 t, equivalent to 37.3 million bags of 60 Kg each, 13.5% more than in 2011. The average yield, which reflects a year of high production, is expected to increase by 14.0% compared with last year. Although the area to be harvested presents decrease of 0.5%, the total area planted with coffee arabica in the country must grow by 7.7%, representing 125,137 ha of new plantations.  Arabica coffee represents 75.7% of all the coffee planted in Brazil. Concerning canephora coffee (beans), which makes up 24.3% of the total output of the country, production is expected to reach 718,740 t (12.0 million bags).

1^ST HARVEST BEANS - The expected amount of this product is 1.8 million metric tons, 9.0% less than in 2011. Planted area was 2.2 million hectares, 8.4% smaller than that of last year.  In Paraná, the main producer, with 18.9% of the national output, the area to be harvested, 246,131 ha, and the expected output, 344,235 t, are smaller than those of the 2011 harvest by 28.5% and 35.5%, respectively. 

1^ST HARVEST CORN (grain) - This product is expected to reach an output of 34.2 million metric tons, 0.2% above that of 2011. In spite of the increase of 7.8% in planted area, there was decrease of the average yield by 8.7% over the previous year, what led to stability of production.  The positive scenario in terms of increase of area resulted from the recovery of corn prices, what was confirmed throughout 2011, and led several producers to choose this type of summer crop instead of other ones. In the South Region, the main national producer, the planted area of 2.7 million hectares is 10.6% bigger that that of 2011; the expected production of 13.1 million metric tons, compared to that of the same year, is 15.3% smaller.

2^nd HARVEST CORN (grain) - The production of 2^nd harvest corn is expected to reach 28.3 million metric tons, what represents 29.1% more than the output of the previous year. The planted area and the average yield also recorded increase of 11.1% and 11.5%, respectively.  This increase occurred due to the contributions of Mato Grosso and Paraná, the first and second main producers, which had their output increased by 36.8% and 55.3%, respectively in relation to the 2011 harvest.

SOYBEANS (grain) – The expected output of 70.0 million metric tons presents negative change of 6.4% compared with the total obtained in 2011. The area to be harvested points to increase of 2.5%, whereas the average yield decreased by 8.7%, being 24.7 million hectares and 2,841 kg/ha, respectively. With reference to average yield, this fall reflects the unfavorable climate conditions observed in the South Region, as well as the dry period of December and January.  This area recorded decrease of 24.5% for this variable.