The eleventh estimate of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds points to a production of 159.5 million tons, 6.6% higher than the record harvest of 2010 (149.6 million tons) and -0.1% lower than the estimate of October.

The area to be harvested in 2011, of 48.6 million hectares, presents an increase of 4.6% compared to 2010, and a decrease of 5 128 hectares (-0.0%) against last month. The three main cultures, which altogether account for 90.6% of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseed, rice, corn and soybean account for 82.3% of the area to be harvested; changes of 1.7%, 3.4% and 3.3%, respectively, in relation to the previous year. Concerning production, rice, corn and soybean present, respectively, increases of 19.0%, 0.3% and 9.2%.

IBGE also conducted in November the second estimate of the area and production for the harvest of 2012. The production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2012 is estimated at 160.5 million tons, 0.6% higher than in 2011. The area to be harvested (50.0 million hectares) grows 2.8%. 

The complete publication can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production in 2011 presents the following distribution: South Region, 67.1 million tons; Central West, 56.0 million tons; Southeast, 17.4 million tons; Northeast, 14.6 million tons; and North, 4.3 million tons. In comparison with 2010, there were increases in all regions: North, 7.9%; Northeast, 24.3%, Southeast, 1.9%, South, 4.6% and Central West, 6.7%. Paraná leads the national production of grains with a contribution of 19.8%, followed by Mato Grosso with 19.6% and Rio Grande do Sul with 18.3%.

November estimate in relation to the production of 2010

Among the 25 selected products, 17 presented positive changes in the production estimate in relation to the previous year:

herbaceous raw cotton (72.7%), peanut in the shell 1st harvest (27.3%), paddy rice (19.0%), potato 1st harvest (13.3%), potato 2nd harvest (5.5%), potato 3rd harvest (1.2%), cacao nut (6.2%), barley in grain (7.4%), beans in grain 1st harvest (29.6%), orange (3.1%), castor beans (30.5%), cassava (7.5%), corn in grain 1st harvest (3.1%), soybean in grain (9.2%), sorghum in grain (29.5%) and triticale in grain (24.8%). Recording a negative change: peanut in the shell 2nd harvest (-39.8%), oats in grain (-10.8%), coffee in grain (-7.2%), sugarcane (-9.4%), onions (-5.3%), beans in grain 2nd harvest (-7.1%), beans in grain 3rd harvest (-8.8%), 2nd harvest of corn in grain (-3.7%) and wheat in grain (-14.0%).

November estimate highlights in relation to October of 2011 

Coffee (in grain) – In the month over month estimate, the production of 2.7 million tons (44.5 million sacks) recorded a rise of 0.3% in relation to October.

The total area in the country in 2011, revised this month, increased 0.1% and the average yield, 0.3%. Only the harvested area presents a slight reduction, of –591 hectares. Minas Gerais, the largest Brazilian producer, recorded an increase of 0.7% in the production expected for 2011, totaling 1.3 million tons (22.3 million 60-kg sacks). Considering both species (arabica and canephora), the production accounted for 50.1% of the total expected for the country in 2011. The area to be harvested was revised at 1.0 million ha. The yield increased 0.8% in relation to October. That increase, in relation to the estimates of the previous month, is due to the revisions in Araguari (Cerrado), Andradas (South) and Muriaé (Zona da Mata), which also explain the increase of the national production (0.3%) None of the other leading Federation Units in the national coffee farming (Espírito Santo, São Paulo and Rôndonia) registered changes in November, repeating the figures released in October. 

BEANS (in grain) Total - The national production, considering the three harvests, was evaluated at 3,525,854 tons, 1.4% lower than the previous month, distributed as follows:

1,974,531 tons of the 1st harvest (56.0%), 1,119,273 tons of the 2nd harvest (31.7%) and 432,050 tons of the 3rd harvest (12.3%). Compared to last month, the production of 1st harvest beans registered an increase of 1.3%, whereas beans of 2nd and 3rd harvests recorded reductions of 5.4% and 3.0%, respectively. The gain in the production of beans 1^st harvest is due to the revisions in the harvest final figures, notably, from the state of Pernambuco, which had its production positively changed in 38.0%. As to the second harvest, the reduction in production, in relation to the previous month, was driven mainly by the information revisions conducted in Paraíba (-47.9%) and in Pernambuco (-76.7%). In Paraíba the drop in production is due to the Indian summer in March and April in "sertão" (semi-arid region) and to the excessive rains during the crop cycle in the eastern part of the state. In Pernambuco there was a redistribution of the figures because the numbers of the 1^st harvest were mistakenly considered as belonging to the 2^nd harvest. For the 3^rd harvest of beans, the contraction in production is a result of the changes in the data of Minas Gerais, which, compared to October, saw its average yield decrease by 5.7%, due to an attack of white flies to the crops of Unaí. That resulted in a drop in production of –5.9%. 

Corn (in grain) Total – The national production in 2011, for both harvests, totaled 56.2 million tons, a negative change of -0.3% against October. The 1st harvest reached 34.1 million tons, decreasing by –0.5%, in comparison with the previous estimate. That drop was attributable to the revisions in the final data of the harvests of Pernambuco (-32.7%) and Paraíba (-36.8%). Their reductions were due to the excessive rains in part of the east and to the pluviometric irregularities in the "sertão" of the state. The contribution to the national production, considering the three major producers, is distributed as follows: South (45.4%), Southeast (27.9%) and Northeast (12.4%). For the 2^nd harvest, a production of 22.1 million tons is estimated, virtually unchanged data in relation to the previous information (negative absolute change of 599 tons). The Central-West and South, with Paraná as the only representative, concentrated 90.5% of the national production with individual contributions of 62.5% and 28.0%, respectively.

 Prospects for the agricultural production of 2012 

IBGE conducted, in November, the second estimate of area and production for the 2012 harvest in the Southeast, South and Central-West regions and in the states of Rondônia, Maranhão, Piauí and Bahia.

In the comparison of the harvests of 2011 and 2012, contractions were seen for the yields of some products. It is worth mentioning that for both soybean and corn (1st harvest) the climate conditions were excellent in 2011 in the main producing centers, resulting in record average yields for both products. Thus, in this second estimate, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2012 is estimated at 160.5 million tons, 0.6% higher than in 2011. That is attributable to the expected gains in the Northeast (4.5%), Southeast (2.0%) and Central-West (3.6%). The area to be harvested of 50.0 million hectares grows 2.8%, considering the increase in most Federation Units, except for Piauí, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Paraná. The information based on the harvest estimate survey accounts for 73.8% of the expected national production, whereas the current estimates account for 26.2% of the total value. 

Among the products analyzed for the next harvest of summer, the production of herbaceous cotton (1.9%) and corn 1st harvest (8.8%) registered positive changes.

Recording a negative change: 1st harvest peanut in husk (14.3%), rice in husk (8.6%), 1st harvest beans in grain (8.1%) and soybean in grain (1.3%). In relation to the area to be harvested, except for corn 1^st harvest and soybean in grain, which increased by 9.7% and 2.1%, respectively, the other products saw decreases: herbaceous raw cotton (-0.3%), peanut in husk 1^st harvest (-1.5%), rice in husk (-6.7%) and 1st harvest beans in grain (-4.6%). 

Raw cotton – The estimate of production is at 5.2 million tons, 1.9% higher than in 2011. The scenario changes in relation to October as the first estimates (just predictions previously) of the producing centers of the Northeast region are included. In Bahia, the second highest national producer, the expected production of 1,577,712 tons is only –0,1% lower than that of this year. Piauí, despite its low contribution, registered gains of 45.0% in production and of 26.9% in the planted area (those data were directly obtained from "cerrado" producers), driven by market demand and by the establishment of new manufacturing plants. Mato Grosso, the highest national producer, revised its production in 0.6% compared with the first estimate. Conversely, in this state, planting extends for a long period, from December to February, what makes the inclusion of new areas in the productive process possible. 

Rice - In the case of rice, the expected production of 12.3 million tons is –8.6% lower than that of 2011. That decrease is notably due to Rio Grande do Sul, the highest producer, with a contribution of 66.8% to the national production. This state keeps, in the second estimate, the expected production of 8,214,000 tons previously informed, recording a decrease of –8.1% compared with 2011. The initial trend for the planted or to-be-planted area was confirmed, 1,110,000 hectares, -5.2% lower than in 2011. That was attributable to the low prices of the product and to the lack of water in the dams in part of the state. Mato Grosso, the highest producer of this cereal in the Central-West, intensified the expected fall, with a decrease of –18.4% in relation to the first estimate. This information corroborates that of the last month: the product is usually farmed in the region of "cerrado" in drought conditions, it is used to renovate pastures and open areas and it has faced difficulties due to the stricter control from environmental agencies.

Beans 1^st harvest – The estimate for the national harvest in 2012 points to an expected production of 1.8 million tons, -8.1% lower than the actual production of 2011. The planted or to-be-planted area, of 2.2 million hectares, decreased by –4.6%. The low prices for beans, during the last harvest, and the higher expected profit for soybean and corn are the main causes for the lack of motivation of producers to expand their planting. In Paraná, the highest national producer with a contribution of 23.7%, the planted area of 255,787 hectares and the expected production of 430,063 tons were below those of the same period a year ago, estimated at –25.7% and –19.4%, respectively. In relation to the survey of October, with the planting concluded in November, there were falls in area (-5.4%) and production (-6.2%). 

Corn 1st harvest – For the 1st corn harvest, a production of 37.1 million tons is expected, 8.8% higher than the one observed in 2011, due to a 7.7% expansion in the crop area, estimated at 8,267,756 hectares, with an average yield of 4 490 kg/ha, –0.8% less. The favorable scenario for price recovery, which has been consolidated along the year, made many producers choose for this product this summer, instead of beans and soybean. Paraná, in this second revision, had its position as the biggest producer in this planting period (lost to Minas Gerais in 2011) consolidated. It contributed with 20.0%, having registered increases in area of 1.6% and production of 1.7% in relation to October. Corn was the main responsible for the increase in the grain expected production of 2012, according to this survey. It started to contribute with 1,556,579 tons, 4.4% higher than in the last month. 

Soybean – The expected production of 73.9 million tons in 2012 points to a negative change of –1.3% compared with the volume presently informed for 2011, though with an increase of 1.7% against October. The area to be harvested (24.6 million hectares) records an increase of 2.1%, while the expected yield (3.007 kg/ha), a decrease of -3.4%: Mato Grosso, the biggest national producer, expanded 6.9% of the crop area: 6.9 million planted hectares were estimated for an expected production of 22.0 million tons, 5.6% higher than that of this year and 2.8% greater than the previous information. In Paraná, the second biggest producer, the planted area of 4,402,682 hectares and the expected production of 14,165,344 tons were below those of 2011, but virtually unchanged against October: -3.8% and –8.2%, respectively. It registered reductions of –0.1% in area and in production. 

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

Considering users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds (cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in November, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.