The industrial output fell 0.6% in October 2011 compared with September in the seasonally adjusted series, third negative result in this type of comparison, accumulating a loss of 2.6% along this period. The slower pace reached 20 of the 27 activities surveyed. Comparing with October 2010, the industrial activity registered a fall by 2.2%, accelerating the pace of the fall as compared with the previous month (-1.6%). This performance showed an increase of the index in 2011 by 0.7%, below the index registered in the previous months. The annual rate, accumulated index in the last 12 months, kept the downward trend started in October of last year (11.8%), changing from 1.6% in September to 1.3% in October. In the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index reinforces the scenario of less dynamism, once it increased the level of negative results along the last 3 months (-0.9%).

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Industrial output drops in 20 of the 27 sectors surveyed

Having dropped 0.6% between September and October, the output level of the whole industry remained 4.7% below the record level reached last March.

The deceleration of the pace of the industrial activity in October was widespread, reaching 20 of the 27 sectors surveyed, highlighted by the fall of 5.0% in the food sector, stopping the growth of 3.1% registered in the previous month. Other negative influences came from the sectors of publishing and printing (-6.7%), machinery and equipment (-3.1%), electronic material, communication equipment and apparatus (-5.0%), tobacco (-12.0%) and basic metals (-1.0%), activities that also registered negative rates in the previous month (5.6%, -5.8%, -11.7%, -23.9% and –0.1%, respectively). On the other hand, the major positive results came from motor vehicles (1.3%), which registered an increase in production after the loss of 12.6% in September, oil refining and ethanol production (1.5%), pulp and paper (2.3%) and pharmaceutical products (1.6%).

Among the categories of use, still comparing with the previous month, capital goods (-1.8%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-1.3%) showed the most significant decrease, the former reducing the intensity of the fall after dropping 6.4% in September and the latter accumulating a loss of 3.7% along the last 3 months. Intermediate goods (-0.5%) also showed a drop and remained negative as registered since June. Durable consumer goods was the only category of use that registered an expansion in this month (2.4%), after accumulating a loss of 12.7% between July and September.

Quarterly moving average falls 0.9% in September

The quarterly moving average index also accelerated the pace of the fall by decreasing 0.9% in the quarter ending in October comparing with September, after registering drops of 0.4% in August and 0.6% in September. Regarding the evolution of this index among the categories of use, the highlight was the production of durable consumer goods, which decreased 3.7% in October and registered three consecutive months of negative rates, accumulating a loss of 7.4% along this period. Capital goods (-2.2%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-1.2%) also showed losses higher than the overall average. The sectors producing intermediate goods, which had a negative change of 0.2% in the last two months, continued in a descending curve started last May.

Industrial output drops 2.2% comparing with October 2010

The industrial output fell 2.2% in October comparing with October 2010, second consecutive negative rate and the lowest since October 2009 (-3.1%). This result was widespread, once all the categories of use and 17 of the 27 activities showed negative rates. Among the sectors, the major negative influences on the overall index came from motor vehicles (-6.1%), machinery and equipment (-5.4%), textile products (-16.0%), publishing and printing (-7.8%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-7.2%), other chemical products (-2.3%) and pharmaceutical products (-4.1%). The highlights in these activities were, respectively, the smaller production of automobiles; air conditioning devices for central use, wheel loaders and forklift trucks; cotton yarn and fabrics; books and newspapers; electric motors and transformers; paints and varnishes and manures and fertilizers; and medicines. Among the 10 sectors that increased the output, oil refining and ethanol production (5.4%) and beverages (5.0%) were the major influences over the industry average, influenced in large extent by the expansion in the production of diesel fuel and automotive gasoline in the former sector, and syrup and powder preparations for beverages in the latter.

Among the categories of use, the sector that produces durable consumer goods (-10.1%) registered the largest fall in October 2011 comparing with the same month last year, pushed by the smaller production of automobiles (-18.7%), still influenced by the collective holidays that hit the sector in the last two months, and mobile phones (-18.9%). In this category of use, the main positive results came from the larger production of house appliances (2.5%) – highlighted by the "brown line" (15.5%), once the "white line" (-1.4%) showed a fall in the production – motorcycles (13.5%) and furniture articles (0.7%). The semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-3.0%) also registered a decrease higher than the overall average (-2.2%), being negatively influenced by the groups other non-durable (-4.9%) and semi-durable (-10.9%), mainly pushed by the decrease in the production of books and medicines in the former group, and footwear made of synthetic material, cotton bath towels and leather footwear and sneakers in the latter. As to the sub-sectors of fuels (-0.3%) and food and beverages produced for domestic consumption (0.0%), they virtually remained at the same level of October 2010.

Still comparing with the same month of the previous year, the sectors producing capital goods (-0.2%) and intermediate goods (-0.3%) registered a slightly negative change. The negative results prevailed in the former, highlighted by the capital goods for electric energy (-9.1%), mixed use (-3.1%), construction (-10.9%) and agriculture (-3.1%). The sub-sector of capital goods for transportation equipment (7.1%) positively influenced the category of use as a whole. The negative change of 0.3% registered for the intermediate goods sector, comparing with October 2010, was negatively influenced by the lower manufacturing of products associated with the activities of textile products (-16.0%), basic metals (-2.0%), motor vehicles (-4.6%), rubber and plastic (-4.3%), other chemical products (-2.0%) and food (-2.8%), and positively influenced by the sectors of oil refining and ethanol production (8.6%), mining and quarrying (1.9%), pulp and paper (2.2%) and non-metallic minerals (1.9%). In this category of use, it is worth mentioning the positive results from intermediate goods for civil construction (4.9%), which registered the sixth consecutive positive rate, and packaging (0.6%).

Industrial output accumulates an increase of 0.7% in 2011

The accumulated index in 2011 for the whole industry was, on average, 0.7%, with a rise in 15 of the 27 sectors surveyed. Motor vehicles, with a growth of 3.2%, remained the major positive influence on the overall index, leveraged by the increase in the production of approximately 70% of the products surveyed. The highlights were the higher manufacturing of trucks, vehicles for transport of goods, towing tractor trucks and chassis with motor for trucks and buses. Other positive influences came from other transportation equipment (9.5%), non-metallic minerals (4.0%), publishing and printing (3.1%), medical, optical and other equipment (11.0%), mining and quarrying (2.0%), oil refining and ethanol production (1.5%), electronic material, communication equipment and apparatus (4.6%) and tobacco (14,5%). In terms of products, the highlights in these sectors were airplanes and motorcycles; ceramic plates and tiles and "Portland" cement; magazines and books; watches; iron ore; automotive gasoline and diesel fuel; mobile phones; and processed tobacco. Among the 12 sectors that decreased the production, the highlights came from textile products (-14.9%), other chemical products (-2.7%), leather articles and footwear (-9.3%) and food (-0.6%), respectively pushed by the lower production of cotton fabrics, yarn and bath, face and hand towels; herbicides for use in agriculture; footwear made of synthetic material and leather for women, and leather sneakers; and crystallized sugar, orange juice and meat and offal from frozen poultry.

Among the categories of use, capital goods (4.4%) showed greater dynamism for the accumulated index in the first 10 months of 2011, registering a growth high above the overall average (0.7%), leveraged by the increase in the sub-sectors of capital goods for transport, construction and industry. The sectors producing intermediate goods (0.5%) remained positive in the accumulated index for the year, whereas the sectors of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-0.1%) and durable consumer goods (-0.6%) registered negative results.