The tenth estimate for the national harvest of cereal, legumes and oilseeds points to an output of about 159.7 million metric tons, 6.8% above the record harvest of 2010 (149.6 million metric tons) and 0.2% above the September estimate. The area to be harvested in 2011, 48.6 million hectares, records increase of 4.6% over that of 2010, and increment of 21,039hectares (0.0%) compared to the previous figure. The three main crops, which, together, account for more than 90.6% of the production of cereal, legumes and oilseeds, account for 82.4% of the area to be harvested, and presents, compared to figures in the previous year, changes of  1.7%, 3.5% and 3.2%, respectively. With reference to output, rice, corn and soybeans show, in this order, increases of 19%, 0.6% and 9.2%.

IBGE also conducted, in October, the first survey of area and output for the 2012 harvest. The estimated output of cereal, legumes and oilseeds for 2012 is 157.5 million metric tons, 1.4% below that of 2011. The area to be harvested, on the other hand, records increase of 1.7%.

 The complete publication of LSPA’s September edition is available at www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

Among the Major Regions the volume of output in 2011 is distributed as follows: South Region, 67.1 million metric tons; Central West, 56.0 million metric tons; Southeast, 17.4 million metric tons; Northeast, 14.9 million metric tons; and North Region, 4.3 million metric tons. Compared to 2010, there were increments in all the areas: North, 7.8%; Northeast, 26.2%; Southeast, 1.9%; South, 4.6%; and Central West, 6.7%.

Paraná leads the national output of grains, with participation of 19.7%, followed by Mato Grosso, with 19.5%, and Rio Grande do Sul, with 18.3%.

October estimate for 2011 versus 2010 output

Among the 25 products selected, 16 recorded positive change in terms of production estimate over the previous year:  herbaceous cotton (seed) (72.6%), 1st harvest peanuts in shell (25.9%), paddy rice (19.0%), 1st harvest potatoes (13.3%), 2nd harvest potatoes (0.8%), 3rd harvest potatoes (0.8%), cacao beans (5.7%), barley grain (7.4%), 1st harvest grain beans (27.9%), oranges (3.1%), castor beans in segment (38.1%), cassava (7.3%), 1st harvest grain corn (3.6%), soybean grain (9.2%), sorghum grain (29.2%) and triticale grain (24.8%). With negative change featured: 2nd harvest peanuts in shell (38.1%), oat grain (10.8%), coffee beans (7.5%), sugarcane (9.4%), onions (5.2%), 2nd harvest grain beans (1.8%), 3trd harvest grain beans (5.9%), 2nd harvest corn grain (3.7%) and wheat grain (14.1%).

October estimate compared to that of September 2011

COFFEE (beans) – Over September, the production estimate of 2,658,061 t (44.3 million sacks) faces decrease of 0.4%, the area directed to harvesting falls by 0.1% and the average yield decreases 0.2%.  Minas Gerais, the biggest Brazilian producer, recorded increase of 0.2% in production, amounting to 1,325,706 t (22.1 million 60-kg sacks), considering the two species together (arabica and canephora), which represent 49.9% of the total expected for the country in 2011. The area to be harvested is reevaluated as 1.028,599 ha.  Yield, which characterizes a low-production year, increased by 0.1% in relation to September.  In Espírito Santo, the second main producer, there was revision of production and yield figures (-0.3%) compared to figures in the previous month.  Since the end of 2010, climate conditions have been favorable and the expected output is 706,346 t (11.8 million sacks), with average yield of 1,447 kg/ha (24.1 sacks/ha), the biggest in the country.  São Paulo, the third main producer, faced output decrease of 4.6% in relation to September, resulting in a total 198,948 t (3.3 million sacks).  Harvesting are and yield were revised and both reevaluated at -2.3%.

BEANS (total) – The production of beans, considering the three harvests, is expected to be 3,577,663 t, 0.3% less than in the previous month and it is distributed as follows: 1,948,563 metric tons in the 1st harvest (54.5%), 1,183,493 metric tons in the 2nd harvest (33.1%) and 445,607 metric tons in the 3rd harvest (12.4%). Compared to last month, the output of 1st and 2nd harvest faced decreases of 0.2% and 1.1%, respectively, whereas 3rd harvest beans grew by 1.5%.  The insignificant decrease in the output of 1^st harvest beans occurred due to reevaluations in the final figures of the harvest, which is already over in most states.  With reference to 2^nd harvest, decrease in production over the previous month resulted, mainly, from the revisions of data from Tocantins (-43,6%) e Sergipe (-44,3%).  The increment in production of 3rd harvest beans is a result from changes in the data of São Paulo which, in relation to September, readjusted the area to be harvested (29.0%) and average yield (4.8%), leading to increase of 35.1% in state production.

CORN (grain) Total – The two harvests of grain corn amounted to 56.4 million metric tons in 2011, with change of 0.4% over September. The 1st harvest reached 34.3 million metric tons, that is, recorded increase of 0.2%, compared to the previous estimate. The participation in the national production, considering the three main producing areas, is distributed as follows: South (45.2%), Southeast (27.8%) and Northeast (12.9%). The South Region, the main producer, recorded increase of 0.4%, due to the 1.1% revision of production in Paraná, where the product has already been harvested. For 2nd harvest beans, the estimated production is 22.1 million metric tons, 0.6% above the figure released before, because of changes in the data of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná.  In Mato Grosso do Sul, with the end of harvesting, there was bigger yield than that estimated for September, resulting in production increase of 6.0%. Paraná readjusted production by 2.6%, now estimated as 6.2 million metric tons.

WINTER CROPS (grain) – For winter crops, the harvesting of which is concentrated in the southern states, the highlights are data concerning production increment for oats (1.2%), barley (1.1%) and wheat (1.9%). For wheat, the most relevant of these crops, the expected production of 5.2 million metric tons is 1.9% above the figure relative to the previous month. In Paraná, the biggest wheat producer (46.5% of the national output), there was increment of 0.7% in planted area, now estimated as 1,031,792 ha. However, the area to be harvested is 999,767 ha, representing decrease of 32,025 ha because of frosts. With an expected average yield of 2,412 kg/ha, and increment of 0.4%, the estimated production of 2.4 million metric tons is 1.0% above the figure informed in September. Rio Grande do Sul, the second main producer, with participation of 44.4%, recorded increase of 3.8% in production due to the positive reevaluations in the area (1.8%) and in average yield (2.0%).

Prospects for agricultural production in 2012

IBGE also conducted, in October, the first survey for area and production of the 2012 harvest in the Southeast, South and Central West and in Rondônia, Maranhão, Piauí and Bahia. In the comparison of harvest in 2011 and 2012, it is possible to observe reduction in the average yields of soybeans and 1st harvest corn. Climate conditions in the main producing centers favored historical records of average yields for these two products. In this first estimate, the production of cereal, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2012 is 157.5 million metric tons, 1.4% below that of 2011, mainly due to the smaller figures expected for the North (-5.7%), Northeast (-6.7%) and South (-2.8%), whereas the area to be harvested, of 49.5 million hectares, increases by 1.7%, considering the increment observed in most states. It is worth mentioning that information from the prospect survey represent 66.2% of the national production expected whereas the prospects conducted account for 33.8% of the total value.

Among the six products analyzed for the summer harvest, only 1st harvest corn recorded positive change of 3.7% in relation to the output of 2011. With negative change, there are: herbaceous seed cotton (0.3%), 1st harvest peanuts in shell (13.3%), paddy rice (8.8%), 1st harvest beans (10.5%) and grain soybeans (2.9%). In relation to the area to be harvested, except for 1st harvest corn and grain soybeans present, respectively, which had increments of 6.8% and 0.6%, respectively, the other products faced decreases in the areas to be harvested: herbaceous seed cotton (-2.4%), 1st harvest peanuts in shell (-1.6%), paddy rice (-4.9%) and 1st harvest beans (-1.6%).

SEED COTTON - The first prospect of seed cotton production is about 5,046,602 metric tons, versus 5,059,840 obtained in 2011, pointing to a small decrease of 0.3%, considering that the area planted or to be planted of 1,367,785 ha faced decrease of 2.4%.

RICE - The expected production of 12.3 million metric tons is 8.8% above that of 2011. This decrease occurred, mainly, because of Rio Grande do Sul, the main producer, with 66.9% of participation in the national production, indicating production of 8,214,000 metric tons and fall of 8.1% relative to the current year. The planted area of 1,110,000 hectares fell by 5.2% because of the low price of this product and the scarcity of water in dams located in some areas of the state. Mato Grosso, the main producer of this cereal in the Central West Region, registers a decrease of 18.0% in planted area.

1st HARVEST BEANS – The first harvest of beans points to an output of 1.7 million metric tons, 10.5% beyond that reached in 2011. The area planted or to be planted, of 2,232,705 hectares, presents decrease of 4.3%. In Paraná, the main national producer (with participation of 26.3%) the planted area of 270,519 ha and the expected production of 458,689 t area smaller than those recorded in the same period of 2011 by 21.4% and 14.0%, respectively.

1st HARVEST CORN – The expected output of 1st harvest corn is 35.6 million metric tons, 3.7% above that of 2011 due to the expansion (5.3%) of the planting area, estimated as 8,079,516 ha, once the average yield of 4,402 kg/ha is 2.9% lower. Paraná, in this first evaluation, regained its position, taken by Minas in 2011, as the biggest producer in this planting period, with participation of 20.5%, and pointing to increments in area (18.9%) and production (19.4%).

SOYBEANS – The starting estimate for soybeans in 2012 is 72.7 million metric tons and indicates negative change of 2.9% in comparison with the volume informed for 2011. The area to be harvested shows increase of 0.6%, whereas the expected yield presents decrease of 3.5%, being 24.2 million hectares and 3,003 kg/ha, respectively. The expansion of harvested area occurred mainly in Mato Grosso, the main national producer, which recorded expansion of 3.6% in harvesting. The estimate planted area is 6,689,725 ha for an output of 21.4 million metric tons, 2.8% bigger. In Paraná, the second main producer, the planted area of 4,397,111 ha and the expected production of 14,147,931 t are 3.9% and 8.4% smaller, respectively.