August estimate compared to the 2010 output 

Among the 25 products selected, 14 recorded positive change in production estimate compared to the previous year: herbaceous raw cotton (73.8%), 1^st harvest peanuts in shell (25.9%), paddy rice  (18.9%), 1st harvest potatoes (13.5%), cacao beans (4.4%), barley in grain (6.8%), 1^st harvest beans in grain (28.4%), 2^nd harvest beans in grain (2.3%), castor beans in segment (42.9%), cassava (8.0%), 1^st harvest corn in grain (3.4%), soybeans in grain (9.3%), sorghum in grain (28.3%) and triticale in grain (24.9%). Negative change occurred in: 2^nd harvest peanuts in shell (37.9%), oat grains (8.9%), 2^nd  harvest potatoes (1.2%), 3^rd  harvest potatoes (0.1%), coffee beans (7.6%), sugarcane (5.4%), onions (7.2%), 3^rd harvest beans in grain (8.1%), oranges (1.7%), 2^nd harvest corn in grain (6.6%) and wheat in grain (15.6%).

Highlights in August estimates over July 2011

HERBACEOUS RAW COTTON – The eighth production estimate is about 5.1 million metric tons, 0.8% above the figure informed in July. This increase comes from the reviewed size of the area to be harvested, which records increase of 1.5%, with an estimate of 1,400,965 hectares planted. Bahia, the second major producer, with participation of 31.0% in production, accounted for the main contributions to these changes. In this state, although the expected average yield of 3,797 kg/ha presents reduction of 2.2% over July, the expected output of 1,578,522 metric tons increased by 3.2% due to the reevaluation of 5.6% in area, which reached 415,716 ha.

COFFEE (beans) – The coffee harvest in 2011 is estimated as 2,654,225 metric tons (44.2 million 60-kg sacks).  There has been decrease of 1.1% of output in relation to the previous month estimate, considering that the coffee production is facing a downward trend (over the previous year). This decrease of output occurred due to Minas Gerais, the main producer in the country, which recorded, in relation to the previous month, reduction of the harvesting area (0.1%), of output (2.7%) of average yield (2.6%). In Espírito Santo, the second major producer, there were not changes in relation to the previous month.

Total BEANS (grain) – The production of beans, considering the three harvests, is evaluated as 3,624,623 metric tons, 1.9% below the figure in June and distributed as follows: 1,955,843 metric tons of the 1^st harvest (54.0%), 1,233,339 metric tons of the 2^nd harvest (34.0%) and 435,441 metric tons of the 3^rd harvest (12.0%). Compared to the previous month, changes in output of these three harvests were negative, by, respectively, 1.4%, 2.7% and 2.1%.

The decrease of 1st harvest is a consequence of changes in the data of Piauí (-2.6%), Ceará (-6.3%), Rio Grande do Norte (-10.8%) and Pernambuco (-4.2%), where the excess of rain caused damage to the crops. Considering the 2^nd harvest, decrease was due to the reevaluation in most producing states of the Northeast, where the drought of June and July accounted for this scenario. In Bahia the expected output decreased by 29.0%; it was replaced by Minas Gerais in the second position. The latter recorded participation in production of 14.3%, versus the 11.0% recorded in Bahia. Considering 3^rd harvest beans, the negative change resulted from the changes in the data of the Federal District, where planting has been reduced by 25.0% of the planted area, leading to output decrease of 20.0%.

Total CORN (grain) – The output of corn amounted to 55.7 million metric tons for the tow harvests, pointing to change of 0.4% between July and August. This change was caused by the modifications in the data of 2^nd harvest, since the 1sts one, already finished in the main producing centers, increased by 9,293 metric tons (+0.0%), totaling 34.2 million metric tons.

Paraná, the second major producer, was the main responsible for this increment, once it changed production by 6.5%, and it is now estimated as 5.5 million metric tons. As harvests reached 75% of the expected area, estimated as 1,617,499 ha, the damage caused by the frosts of June were below expectations. The output, in this month, could have increased more, but that did not occur due to the dry period faced by Bahia. In this state, the expected production of 362,760 t is 45.1% below that of the July survey, due to the reduction by 43.6% of the expected average yield, which changed from 1,973 kg/ha in July to 1,112 kg/ha in August.

SOYBEANS (grain) – With an estimated amount of estimated 74.9 million metric tons, the output of soybeans in August was 31,136 metric tons above that of July. Except for Maranhão harvest is already over in all the producing centers. This increase occurred mainly due to the reviews of data in Tocantins, where the harvested area of 384,907 ha and the production of 1,168.209 t, compared to figures obtained last month 3.5% and 2.2%, above the previous figures, respectively. 

SORGHUM (grain) – The estimated production of sorghum is 1,924,041 metric tons, surpassing by 3.2% that expected in the previous month. This increase was determined by the Central West Region, where there were hike in Goiás (5.3%), the main national producer, with participation of com 43.5%, Mato Grosso do Sul (5.2%) and Federal District (23.3%).

WINTER CROPS (grain) – Among winter crops, whose harvest are concentrated in the South, the highlights are the decreases in the output of barley (1.9%), wheat (1.0%) and triticale (1.8%). Concerning wheat, the most important among these crops, the expected output of 5.1 million metric tons informed in August is 1.0% lower than that of the previous month. This decrease has occurred due to the new evaluations occurred in Paraná, the main wheat producer, which accounts for 48.8% of production. In this state, the information point to a planted area 0.4% bigger than that expected in the previous evaluation, that is, 1,023,191 ha,. However, 33,985 ha were lost due to frosts, resulting in a productive area of 989,206 ha. On the other hand, the excess of rain in July, besides causing diseases in corncobs, made it difficult to use machines in crops to control them. As a result, the expected average yield now evaluated as 2,515 kg/ha, is 2.3% below that informed in the previous year. Consequently, the estimated production of 2.5 million metric tons is 1.8% lower.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated at state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

To address the needs of users of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency (Conab) of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October of 2007.

The eighth estimate for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds points to an output of about 159.0 million metric tons, 6.3% above the record harvest of 2010 (149.6 million metric tons) and 0.1% above the July estimate. The area to be harvested in 2011, of 48.8 million hectares, recorded increase of 4.9%, over that of 2010, and decrease of 19,284 hectares (-0.0%) over the previous estimate. The three main crops, rice, corn and soybeans,  which, together, make up 90.6% of the output of cereal, legumes and oilseeds, account for 82.2% of the area to be harvested. They record, in relation to the previous year, changes of +1.6%, +4.0% and +3.3%, respectively. Concerning output, rice and soybeans show, in this same order, increases of 18.9% and 9.3%, whereas corn recorded decrease of 0.7%.

The complete publication to this survey is available at  www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production is distributed as follows: South Region, 66.3 million metric tons; Central West, 55.8 million metric tons; Southeast, 17.2 million metric tons; Northeast, 15.3 million metric tons; and North, 4.4 million metric tons. Compared to figures in 2010, there has been increment in all the Major Regions: North, 9.2%; Northeast, 30.1%; Southeast, 1.0%; South, 3.3%; and Central West, 6.2%.

Mato Grosso is the leader in terms of national output of grains, with participation of 19.6%, overcoming Paraná (19.4%), which faced significant damages in amount and quality in the crops of 2^nd and 3^rd harvest beans, oats, wheat, and 2^nd harvest corn, mainly, due to the occurrences of drought in May, frost in June and excess of rain in July 2011.