In July 2011, the industrial output increased by 0.5% over that of the previous month (seasonally adjusted series), having recovered part of the decrease recorded in June (1.2%). Compared to July 2010, industry faced negative change of 0.3%, after recording positive results in this type of comparison for two months. Considering the performance of this month, the index accumulated in the first seven months of the year recorded increase of 1.4%, being below the result of the first semester (1.7%). The annualized rate, the index accumulated in the last twelve months, on a downward trend since October last year, decreased by 0.8 percentage points from June (3.7%) to July (2.9%), and had the lowest positive rate since April 2010 (2.3%).

The complete publication to this survey is available at www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/indicadores/industria/pimpfbr/.

Industry recorded increase of output in July over the immediately previous month (0.5%), making up for part of the decrease (1.2%) observed in June. Also considering the seasonally adjusted series, the quarterly moving average index remained practically stable from June to July, after two consecutive negative rates. This reduced dynamism was also observed in the comparison with the same month in the pervious year, since the industrial sector recorded increase of output in July, after two months with positive results in this type of comparison. Considering the indicators accumulated in the year and in the last twelve months, positive indexes have remained, but with significant reduction of increase over the previous months.

Among the activities, 14 hikes and 12 decreases in July

With the increase of 0.5% observed in the total of industry between June and July, the level of production of this sector was 2.0% below the record of last March. This increase of industrial activity in July occurred in 14 of the 27 activities surveyed, being the main highlights editing and printing (16.8%), mainly due to the bigger production of books ordered by the government, motor vehicles (4.3%), food products (1.9%), beverages (4.1%) and petroleum refining and alcohol production (1.9%). It is also worth mentioning that, except for editing and printing, and its second consecutive positive result, the other activities recorded negative rates in the previous month: -1.3%, -0.5%, -0.5% and –8.6%, respectively. On the other hand, the main negative contribution to the overall average was that of the pharmaceutical industry (-9.0%),  which has accumulated decrease of 20.7% in the last three months, followed by other chemical products (-1.8%), textiles (-4.9%), miscellaneous (-12.9%) and machinery and equipment (-1.3%).

Also in the comparison with the immediately previous month, in the indexes by category of use, only the segment of intermediate goods (-0.7%) faced decrease of output, after having fallen in June as well (-1.6%). The other categories of use recorded positive results, being the main highlights semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (3.8%), which had the most significant increase, followed by durable consumer goods (2.9%) and capital goods (1.7%). It is worth mentioning that these sectors had recorded negative rates in the previous month: -3.0%, -0.5% and -0.7%, respectively.

Quarterly moving average was 0.1%

In the evolution of the quarterly moving average, industry recorded slight positive change (0.1%) in the quarter that ended in July, compared to the previous month, after two months of negative results: May (-0.1%) and June (-0.9%). Among the categories of use, also in terms of the movement of this index on the margin, the highlight was the production of durable consumer goods, which increased 1.7% in July and interrupted three consecutive months of negative rates, a period in which it accumulated fall of 6.0%. The other positive results were recorded by capital goods (0.9%) and semi-durable and consumer goods (0.3%), both making up for the decreases observed in the previous month (-1.2% and -1.6%, respectively). The sector of intermediate goods (-0.2%) accounted for the only negative rate in July, after having decreased by 0.2% in the previous month.

Over July 2010, change in industrial output was -0.3%                

Over July last year, the industrial sector faced negative change of 0.3%, with decrease of output in 15 of the 27 activities surveyed. It is worth mentioning that July 2011 (21 business days) had one business day less than the previous year (22). The most significant negative impacts to the formation of the overall index came from textiles (-20.9%), pharmaceuticals (-12.9%), petroleum refining and alcohol production (-5.6%), metallurgy (-6.5%), other chemical products (-4.2%), apparel (-13.9%) and food products (-1.0%). In these activities, the highlights were the decreases of output recorded by: cotton fabric articles and cotton bath; medicines; diesel and naphtha for petrochemical industry; carbon-steel bobbins and carbon-steel ingots, blocks, billets and plates; herbicides for use in agriculture; cotton dresses and shirts; and concentrated orange juice and frozen poultry. Among the activities that recorded increase of production, the main contribution to the average of industry came from editing and printing (37.9%), affected not only by the big production of books ordered by the government, but also to the low basis for comparison, since the sector had decreased by 6.9% in July 2010. It is worth mentioning the positive influences of motor vehicles (2.9%), electronic material and communication equipment (9.3%), machinery and equipment (2.7%) and tobacco (17.5%). Among these subsectors, the main highlights were: vehicles for transportation of goods and trucks; television sets, microwave ovens and machining centers and processed tobacco.

Among the categories of use, also in comparison with the same month in the previous year, capital goods (3.8%) recorded the biggest increase in July 2011; the main contribution to this result came from capital goods for transportation (11.5%), followed by capital goods for industrial use (11.5%) and for construction (12.7%). The other subsectors faced decrease: capital goods for mixed use (-8.5%), for electricity (-7.6%) and agriculture (-14.6%).

Still considering the comparison with July 2010, the segments of durable consumer goods (1.3%) and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (0.8%) also recorded positive results. In the former, positive influences came from household appliances (15.0%), both of the “white type” (10.5%) and “brown type” (19.7%), motorcycles (5.6%) furniture (21.6%), once cars (-6.2%) recorded decrease. The production of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods was stimulated by the groups other non-durable goods (6.3%) and fuels (1.7%), mainly due to the increased output of books and gasoline, respectively. Semi-durable goods (-11.4%) and food products and beverages elaborated for domestic use (-0.9%) accounted for negative impacts in this category o use, mainly due to the production of cotton fabric articles and cotton bath and female footwear made of synthetic material, in the former, and concentrated orange juice and frozen poultry, in the latter.

Also in terms of the monthly index, intermediate goods (-2.4%) was the only category to record a negative result in the month, having been affected by production decreases related to the activities of petroleum refining and alcohol production (-9.6%), metallurgy (-6.5%), textiles (-18.6%), other chemical products (-4.3%), pulp and paper (-3.3%), food products (-1.5%) and rubber and plastic (-1.6%), whereas positive influences were recorded by motor vehicles (5.2%), non-metallic minerals (3.3%), metal products (5.0%) and mining and quarrying industry (1.0%). In this category of use, it is also worth mentioning the decrease of output in the group of packaging (-1.5%), which interrupted a sequence of 21 months with positive rates, and the increase observed in inputs for construction (3.9%).

Considering figures accumulated in 2011, increases were observed in 16 of the 27 activities surveyed

The index accumulated in the first seven months of the year, ,over the same period in the previous year, recorded increase of  1.4%, due to the positive results observed in all categories of use and to most of (16) the activities surveyed. Motor vehicles, with increase of 5.6%, remained as the most influential to the formation of the overall index, being affected the bigger output trucks, vehicles for the transportation of goods and towing tractor trucks. Other relevant positive contributions to the national total came from other transportation equipment (11.3%), pharmaceuticals (6.1%), editing and printing (5.7%), medical, optical and other equipment (17.5%), non-metallic minerals (4.6%), machinery and equipment (2.2%), mining and quarrying industry (2.7%) and electronic material and communication equipment (5.5%). In terms of products, the highlights in these activities were: airplanes and motorcycles; medicines; books and magazines; watches; ceramic tiles and plates, portland cement and concrete; motor graders and wheel loaders; iron ores; and mobile telephones. On the other hand, among the ten subsectors facing decrease of output, the main highlights were: textiles (-14.4%), other chemical products (-2.7%), beverages (-4.1%) and food products (-1.1%), influenced, respectively, by the reduced output of cotton fabric articles and cotton bath; herbicides for agricultural use; preparations in syrup for the elaboration of beverages; crystallized sugar and concentrated orange juice.  

Among the categories of use, results accumulated in the first seven months of 2011 were positive over those of the same period in the previous year, and the segment of capital goods (5.5%) recorded the highest rate, strongly affected by the advances of capital goods for transportation and for industrial use. Durable consumer goods (1.9%) also recorded increase above average (1.4%), whereas intermediate goods (0.6%) and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (0.5%) recorded more moderate increases and were below the total figure of industry.