In February 2011, the seasonally adjusted industrial production index changed by 1.9%, the highest figure since March 2010 (3.5%)...

In February 2011, the seasonally adjusted industrial production index changed by 1.9%, the highest figure since March 2010 (3.5%). Compared to the same month in the previous year, industry recorded increase of 6.9%, above the 2.4% of last January. As a result, the sector accumulated increase of 4.6% in the first two months of 2011. The indicator accumulated in the last 12 months, after being 8.6% up in February, remained on a downward trend of decrease and recorded its least significant hike since August 2010 (9.8%). The complete publication of this survey can be seen on the page

www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/indicadores/industria/pimpfbr/

Increase of industrial production in February (1.9%) was observed in 17 of the 27 industrial activities. The evolution of the quarterly moving average also recorded increase in February (0.5%), interrupting two consecutive months with change of -0.2%. Compared to the same month in the previous year, the industrial sector recorded hike of 6.9%, at a more accelerated increase than that observed in December (2.5%) and January (2.4%). This performance was affected not only by the general profile of increase, but also by the calendar, once February 2011 had two more business days than February 2010. As a result, the overall result of industry recorded increase of 4.65 in the first two months of 2011; this result was above that of Q4 2010 (3.3%), being both comparisons made with the same period in the previous year. Among the categories of use, this movement was very evident in the subsectors of durable consumer goods, which changed from 1.5% to 11.7% among the two periods, and of capital goods (from 7.0% to 13%). The performance of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods remained below the average of industry in both periods, in spite of the gain between the 4^th quarter of 2010 (1.6%) and the 1^st two months of 2011 (2.4%). On the other hand, the subsector of intermediate goods was the only one to record deceleration of decrease, having changed from 3.9% to 2.4%.

In February, 17 subsectors recorded increase and 10, decrease

Among the 27 subsectors surveyed, 17 recorded increase, with food products, up 6.7% and automotive vehicles, up 4.7%, representing the major contributions to the overall result of industry. The former, after falling 5.2% between September and December, recorded increase for the second consecutive month and accumulated gain of 7.7% in the period; the latter eliminated the decrease of 4.2% observed last January. Other highlights are the positive contributions from metal products (7.0%), metallurgy (3.3%), medical and hospital, optical and other equipment (11.0%), office machinery and computer equipment (6.7%) and beverages (2.8%). On the other hand, the main negative contributions came from other chemical products (-3.7%), editing and printing (-4.0%) and electronic material and communication equipment (-5.7%).

Also in comparison with the previous month, the subsector intermediate goods (1.3%) reached its highest result among all the categories of use, reversing the two slightly negative rates of December 2010 (-0.1%) and January 2011 (-03%). The production of capital goods (0.9%) was positive for the second consecutive month, having accumulated gain of 2.2%. in this period. The subsectors of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (0.2%) and durable consumer goods (-2.3%) recorded negative results, both losing part of the increase obtained in the previous month: 0.5% and 6.1%, respectively.

Quarterly moving average was 0.5%

With the result of 1.9% recorded in February, the quarterly moving average index showed increase of 0.5% in the months ending in January and February, after the negative change of 0.2% of the last two months. Also with reference to the change of this index, the highlight was production of durable consumer goods, with increase of 1.1%, which has continued the sequence of positive rates since last September. The other positive results came from capital goods (0.5%) and intermediate goods (0.3%), keeping the upward trend which started in October 2010. The subsector of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods was stable in February (0.0%), after recording -0.4% in December 2010 and -0.1% in January 2011.

Automotive vehicles led increase versus figures in February 2010

Compared to figures in February 2010, the overall production of industry recorded increase of 6.9% the 16th consecutive positive rate in this type of comparison, with more acceleration than in December (2.5%) and January (2.4%). There was a general profile of increase in February this year, with positive rates in all the categories of use, in 22 of the 27 activities surveyed, in 56 of the 76 subsectors and in 61% of the 755 products surveyed. Among the activities, automotive vehicles (24.1%) accounted for the main positive contribution to the average of industry, followed by machinery and equipment (9.5%), food products (6.2%), other transportation equipment (23.7%), metal products 910.4%) and medical and hospital, optical and other equipment (40.0%). In terms of products, the highlights in these subsectors were: automobiles, tractor trucks, trucks and vehicles for transportation of goods; air-conditioning equipment, motor graders and carrying/transporting machinery; cookies and crackers and meats and poultry giblets; airplanes and motorcycles; iron and steel structures, parts and pieces for capital goods and locks; and watches. On the other hand, among the five subsectors which recorded negative rates, the main impact came from other chemical products (-8.7%). It was affected by the lower output of approximately 50% of the products belonging to the sector surveyed, mainly due to the interruption of services for maintenance and turning off, in February, of the electrical sector in the Northeast Region. In this activity, the most relevant negative contributions came from the items ethylene, herbicide for agricultural use, vinyl polychloride and polyethylene.  

Among the categories of use, the indexes were positive for all the segments compared to figures in February 2010; the highest rates came from capital goods (17.9%) and durable consumer goods (17.4%). The former, which recorded its highest result since August 2010 (26.4%), had its result influenced by the performance of most of its subsectors, mainly, capital goods for transportation (27.8%), for mixed use (15.2%), for construction (28.8%) and for electricity (6.5%). The performance of durable consumer goods, which was also above the overall average (6.9%), can be seen as a result of the advance in the production of automobiles (24.3%), followed by the positive results of “white type”  household appliances (3.7%), motorcycles (42.3%), mobile telephones (35.5%) and furniture (3.4%).

Also compared to the figure in February 2010, some products were below the result of industry: intermediate goods (4.1%) and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (3.6%). In the former, which accelerated increase versus the results of December (2.6%) and January (0.8%), the hike in February resulted from the performance of almost its subsectors. Among these, it is possible to highlight products associated to the activities automotive vehicles (16.1%), mining and quarrying industry (4.6%), non-metallic minerals (7.8%), petroleum refining and alcohol production (2.6%), metal products (11.3%) and rubber and plastic (6.7%). The results maintained were the positive ones in the groups: inputs for civil construction (12.2%), the 16th consecutive positive rate, and packaging (0.9%), having recorded increase for seventeen months. Among producers of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (3.6%) the index was positively influenced by the groups: elaborated food products and beverages for domestic consumption (6.2%) and other non-durable goods (2.7%), mainly affected by the performance of beer, draft beer, cookies, crackers and meats and frozen poultry giblets, in the former, and medicines, in the latter.

Index accumulated in the year shows increase of 23 of the 27 activities surveyed

The increase of 4.6% of the indicator accumulated in the period January and February 2011, compared to that of the pervious year, also had a general profile of increase and reached all the categories of use and twenty-three activities. The subsector of automotive vehicles, with hike of 16.1%, remained as the most significant contribution to the formation of the overall index, affected by the increased production of 79% of the products in the sector, among which the main highlights automobiles and trucks. Other relevant contributions to the national index came from machinery and equipment (8.2%), other transportation equipment (17.6%), mining and quarrying industry (5.1%), food products (2.7%) and medical, hospital, optical and other equipment (30.4%). On the other hand, among the four subsectors which faced production decrease, the highlights came from other chemical products (-5.2%) and textiles (-7.1%).

Among the categories of use, the type of results obtained in the first two months of 2011 confirmed a bigger dynamism in all the segments, with capital goods (13.1%) and durable consumer goods (11.7%), as the main highlight. Both recorded increase significantly above the average of industry (4.6%), whereas intermediate goods and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, with increase of 2.4% each, recorded less relevant changes.