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In August, industrial production changes -0.1%

October 01, 2010 09h00 AM | Last Updated: August 27, 2018 02h59 PM

In August of 2010, the industrial production decreased by -0.1% compared with July, in the seasonally adjusted series, after recording an advance of 0.6% in July. In relation to August of 2009 there was an expansion of 8.9%, completing ten consecutive months of positive rates and the accumulated value of 14.1% in the first eight months of the year. The accumulated index in the last 12 months kept the upward trend started in October of 2009, changing from 8.3% in July to 9.9% in August. 

Contributing to the rate of –0.1% between July and August, 16 of the 27 surveyed activities registered contraction in production. The main negative contributors were primary metallurgy (-5.8%), petroleum refinement and alcohol production (-3.6%), due to the technical halt in a company of the sector, pharmaceutical (-5.5%), beverages (-4.9%) and electronic materials and communication equipment (-6.5%). Conversely, the main positive contributors were machinery and equipment (5.6%), which recovered from the loss observed in July (-6.2%), motor vehicles (1.4%), edition and press (4.1%) and other transportation equipment (4,5%). 

Comparing with the previous month, in the indexes relative to the category of use, only the sector of capital goods (1.4%) registered advance in production, after slight positive change (0.2%) in July. The other categories of use recorded negative results, the negative highlights were intermediate goods (-1.5%), which recorded the sharpest drop, followed by semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-0.8%) and durable consumer goods (-0.1%). It is worth mentioning that these sectors recorded positive rates in the previous month: 0.7%, 0.3% and 1.1%, respectively. 

Considering the virtual stability (-0.1%) of the industrial sector in August, the quarterly moving average (-0.2%) remained negative for the third consecutive month and continued the downward trend observed in the previous month. As for the categories of use, all sectors also recorded negative rates. The main drop was from the sector of consumer durable goods (-0.8%) between July and August, followed by intermediate goods (-0.5%), semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-0.4%) and capital goods (-0.1%).

By comparison with August of 2009, there was a high in 62 of the 76 subsectors

By comparison with August of 2009, the overall industrial production grew 8.9%, practically repeating the rate observed in the previous month (8.8%). It is worth mentioning that August of 2010, with 22 working days, had one more working day in relation to the same month of the previous year (21). The growth profile in August of this year remained generalized. All the categories of use, 22 of the 27 activities, 62 of the 76 subsectors and 68% of the 755 surveyed products continued recording positive rates. Among the activities, motor vehicles (27.2%) continued as the major positive influence for the average of the industry , with 96% of the surveyed products in the sector registering growth in production, followed by machinery and equipment (20.7%), food (9.5%), quarrying and mining industry (10.7%), primary metallurgy (9.9%) and metal products (18.5%).

As for products, the highlights were trucks, tractor trucks and automobiles; wheel loaders, forklift trucks, motor graders and agricultural tractors; crystallized sugar and concentrated orange juices; iron ores;

ferro-niobium, cast iron artifacts and pieces and steel alloy bars; and steel and iron screws, hooks, nuts and threaded rods. In contrast, among the five sectors that recorded a fall in production, the major impacts were from petroleum refinement and alcohol production (-3.6%), due to a technical halt in a company of the sector, and pharmaceutical (-5.6%). In these activities, the retractions were mainly represented, respectively, by diesel oil and medicines.

As for the categories of use, still comparing with August of 2009, the production of capital goods (28.0%) pointed to a growth trend well above the overall average (8.9%), mainly due to the overall expansion of machinery and equipment. That reflected the increase in investments in different sectors compared with 2009. The main positive impact was from capital goods for transportation (45.5%), followed by capital goods for construction (103.8%), for mixed use (12.9%), for industrial purposes (19.2%), agriculture (48.3%) and electric energy (8.3%). The other categories of use recorded rates below the overall index of industry: intermediate goods (8.7%), durable (4.7%) and semi- and non-durable (4.3%) consumer goods. 

The performance of the intermediate goods was 8.7% higher than the one of August of 2009, the tenth positive consecutive rate, but the lowest since November of 2009 (5.2%). The main positive contributors were motor vehicles (28.7%), primary metallurgy (9.9%), quarrying and mining industry (10.8%), food (15.7%) and metal products (20.6%); whereas petroleum refinement and alcohol production (-7.9%), pressed by the reduction in the production of diesel oil, was the only negative contribution. Among the groups with positive rates, the highlights chassis with motor for trucks and buses and motor parts and accessories; ferro-niobium; iron ores; crystallized sugar; and steel and iron screws, hooks, nuts and threaded rods. It is also worth highlighting the positive performances from producer goods for civil construction (10.8%) and packaging (12.1%).

In comparison with August of 2009, durable consumer goods (4.7%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (4.3%) also advanced below the average of industry. In the first sector, the expansion was mainly influenced by automobile manufacturing (9.0%), appliances (brown goods) (9.6%) and other appliances (13.0%), since appliances (white goods) (-18.5%) and cell phones (-5.7%) registered a drop in production. The semi- and non-durable consumer goods sector increased in all of its subsectors: food and beverages for domestic consumption (6.1%), semi-durable goods (8.9%), fuels (4.6%) and other non-durable goods (0.7%). In these groups the highlights were the increases observed, respectively, in concentrated and unconcentrated orange juice, soft drink, beer and draft beer; footwear and cds; alcohol; and magazines. 

In the accumulated indicator of the first eight months of the year, the overall rate of 14.1% was mainly due to the positive performance of 25 of the 27 surveyed items. The highlights were motor vehicles (30.8%) and machinery and equipment (35.0%), both propelled by the positive indexes of more than 85% of the surveyed products in the respective activities. In these sectors, the highlights were the higher production of automobiles, tractor trucks and trucks, in the first sector, and wheel loaders, refrigerator compressors, microwave ovens and motor graders in the second one. It is worth highlighting the positive contributions from primary metallurgy (26.9%), other chemical products (14.3%), metal products (30.7%), quarrying and mining industry (14.7%) and food (6.3%). Conversely, tobacco (–10.4%) and other transportation equipment (-3.4%) kept as the only negative influences.

Among the categories of use, results remained positive for capital goods (28.3%), recording a growth well above the total industry average (14.1%). The manufacturing sectors of durable consumer goods (15.7%) and of intermediate goods (15.3%) also rose above the overall average; whereas semi- and non-durable consumer goods (6.7%) recorded the most moderate advance among the categories of use.

In sum, the industrial activity remained stable in August (-0.1%) compared with the previous month, after advancing 0.6% in July. Among the categories of use, still considering the seasonally adjusted series, the category of capital goods was the only one to expand in production (1.4%); whereas the category of intermediate goods (-1.5%), mainly influenced by the negative results of the primary metallurgy and by the technical halt in petroleum refinement and alcohol production, was the main negative contributor.

In the comparisons with 2009, there was a continuation of the overall growth profile among the categories of use, activities, subsectors and products. In the analysis of the indexes by four-month period, the industrial sector advanced 10.8% in the period of May-August, a less intense growth pace in relation to the rate of 18.0% observed in the first four months of the year, both comparisons in contrast with the same period of last year. Those results reflected a more moderate behavior of the industrial activity in the last months and a higher base of comparison. In terms of categories of use, in this same type of contrast, all sectors recorded the same movement. Durable consumer goods registered the most considerable loss between both periods, as its index changed from 26.2% to 7.2%, followed by intermediate goods (from 19.3% to 11.9%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (from 8.6% to 4.9%). The sector of capital goods recorded the smallest reduction in the growth pace between the first and the second four-month periods of the year (from 28.5% to 28.1%) and also kept the highest rate.