In July, retail trade in the country recorded, in both volume of sales and nominal revenue, increase of 0.4%...

Volume of sales records increase in six out of ten activities surveyed

In seasonally adjusted results compared to those in the previous month, six out of the ten activities surveyed recorded positive changes in volume of sales:   Books, magazines, newspapers and stationery articles (3.4%); Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces (2.9%); Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles and cosmetics (1.9%); Construction Material (1.1%); Textiles, apparel and footwear (0.6%) and Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (0.1%). Negative changes were observed in Fuels and lubricants (-0.2%); Furniture and household appliances (-0.5%); Other articles of personal and domestic use (-1.0%) and Office, computer and communication material and equipment (-4.4%).

Compared to July 2009, in the seasonally adjusted series, all the eight retail trade activities recorded increases in volume of sales, the rates of which, by order of relevance to the overall rate, were:  Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (11.0%); Furniture and household appliances (12.2%); Textiles, apparel and footwear (12.5%); Other articles of personal and domestic use (9.4%); Fuels and lubricants (7.7%); Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles and cosmetics (8.4%); Office, computer and communication material and equipment (20.3%) and Books, magazines, newspapers and stationery articles (7.4%).

The subsector Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco, with increase of 11.0% in volume of sales in July, versus the figure in the same month in the previous year, accounted for the main contribution to the overall retail trade rate (49%). Rates accumulated in the first seven months of the year and in the last 12 months were, respectively, 10.5% and 10.2%. Such a performance is mainly related to the increase of payroll (according to PME, with change of 8.7% versus the result of July 2009 for the real income of the employed population) and to the deceleration of the prices of products prices, with accumulated change of 2.5% in 12 months in the group Meals in the Household, versus overall inflation of 4.6%, according to IPCA.

Furniture and household appliances, with increase of 12.2% in volume of sales in relation to July last year, accounted for the second biggest contribution (18.0%) to the overall retail trade rate. Regarding figures accumulated in the first seven months of the year and in the last 12 months, changes were 19.3% and 13.7%, respectively. Considering these results, it is possible to observe that this activity has practically kept the same rhythm of increase with the end of incentive to reduction of the IPI tax of the “white type products” (refrigerators, stoves, washing machines, for example) and of periods of off-sales related to the World Cup. The activity has recorded, so far, monthly performance rates significantly higher than the average retail trade rate. Credit expansion policies and the rise of payroll have been of fundamental importance to this result.

The subsector Textiles, apparel and footwear, with change of 12.5% in volume of sales in July compared to the result in the same month in the previous year, accounted for the third major contribution to the overall retail trade rate. The current scenario of credit expansion and income increase can also be considered one of the main causes of the recovery of sales of this activity, after the negative performance in 2009. Considering indexes accumulated in the first seven months of 2010 and in the last 12 months, its increase rates reached, respectively, 10.5% and 6.1%, in spite of the rise of products of this kind (change of 6.0% in 12 months for the group Apparel), remained above the overall index, of 4.6%, according to IPCA.

The activity Other articles of personal and domestic use, which encompasses subsectors such as department stores, glasses shops, jewelry shops, Sporting goods stores, toy stores, etc, accounted for the fourth biggest impact on the volume of sales in relation to July 2009. The increase of the population’s purchasing power has led to positive results in this segment, which recorded accumulated change rates of 6.6% for the first seven months of the year and of 7.0% for the last 12 months.  

The fifth main contribution to the result of retail trade came from the subsector Fuels and lubricants, with  7.7% of increase of volume of sales versus the rate of July 2009. In terms of accumulated results, rates were

5.9% for the first seven months of the year and 3.5% for the last 12 months. This performance, below average, was due to the restricted demand for fuels in the eight months (July 2009 to February 2010) of successive rises of the price of alcohol, the accumulated change of which, since last March, has led to higher performance rates of this activity.

In July, retail trade in the country recorded, in both volume of sales and nominal revenue, increase of 0.4% versus results in the previous month (seasonally adjusted figure). As a consequence, the sector has kept its sequences of positive rates, of three months for volume and seven months for revenue of sales, as shown by the evolution of fixed-base and quarterly moving average indicators. In other comparisons, obtained from original series (without adjustment), national retail trade reached, in terms of sales volume, increase by about 10.9% over July 2009 and by 11.4% and 9.7% in the figures accumulated in the first seven months of the years and in the last twelve months, respectively. Considering the same indicators, nominal revenue of sales recorded change rates of 13.5%, 14.5% and 12.7%, respectively.

The activity Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles, with the sixth main contribution to the overall retail trade rate, presented increase of 8.4% in comparison with the result in July last year, and accumulated rates of 11.6% in the year and 11.5% in the last 12 months. The positive data, already mentioned, in relation to labor market and credit, together with the importance of this kind of product, are the main factors accounting for the positive performance of this sector.

The subsector Office, computer and communication material and equipment, which accounted for the seventh main impact on the formation of the overall rate, recorded increase in volume of sales, in July, of 20.3% over that of the same month in the previous year, and accumulated rates of 25.0% in the years and 16.1& in the last 12 months. The factors that have determined this performance, besides the increase of payroll and expansion of credit, are the growing importance of computer-related products in the consumption habits of families and the fall of their prices. As an example, it is worth mentioning personal computers and telephone appliances (for fixed and mobile operation), with accumulated change of prices of about -7.1% and -8.3%, respectively, according to the IPCA.

The activity Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles, with increase of 7.4% in volume of sales, accounted for the least significant impact on the monthly result of retail trade. The changes accumulated in the last 12 months are about 8.0% and 9.0%, respectively. A relevant factor in these positive results has been the diversity of products traded by some groups of activity. As an example can be mentioned sales of computer-related items by major book shop chains and stationery stores all over the country.

Extended Retail Trade recorded, compared to those in the previous month, changes of 1.2% for volume of sales and 1.6% for nominal revenue, being both seasonally adjusted. Versus the same month in the previous year (without seasonal adjustment), the rates were 12.3% for volume of sales and 15.0% for nominal revenue. Figures accumulated in the year and in the last 12 months were 11.8% and 11.6% for volume and 14.5% and 13.0% for nominal revenue of sales, respectively.

With reference to volume of sales, the activity Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces recorded increase of 14.6% in relation to July 2009. Offers, credit and launching of new models have contributed to this result. Figures accumulated in the year and in the last 12 months reached 12.1% and 15.9%, respectively.

Considering Construction Material, volume of sales increased by 14.9% compared to the result in July last year, by 15.8% considering the index accumulated in the year and by 7.7% considering the index accumulated in the last 12 months. Such figures result from the favorable economic scenario, added to official measures of incentive to construction.

Piauí was the only state not to record increase versus July 2009

Twenty six Federation Units recorded positive result in the July 2010/July 2009 comparison, and the highest rates came from Tocantins (57.0%), Rondônia (29.6%), Acre (27.8%), Roraima (23.7%), Mato Grosso (21.0%) and Maranhão, with change of 20.7%. With reference to the participation in the formation of the overall Retail Trade rate, the highlights were, in order: São Paulo (10.8%), Rio de Janeiro (8.5%), Minas Gerais (11.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (12.3%), and Paraná (10.3%). Piauí was the only state not to record a negative result in comparison with the one in 2009.

In relation to extended retail trade, the highest performance rates of volume of sales were those of Tocantins (44.1%), Roraima (22.5%), Espírito Santo (18.9%), Paraíba (18.3%) and Mato Grosso (15.8%). As for the impact on the overall result of the sector, the highlights were the states of São Paulo (11.1%), Minas Gerais (14.6%), Rio Grande do Sul (15.2%), Paraná (15.4%) and Rio de Janeiro (8.3 %). Seasonally adjusted results compared to those in the previous month indicate seventeen states with positive changes in volume of sales, considering, as a highlight, Rio Grande do Norte (4.3%), Rio Grande do Sul (3.8%), Mato Grosso (2.8%), Acre (2.5%), Maranhão (2.4%) and Alagoas (2.0%).