The eighth estimate of the harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds2 indicates the production of 148.0 million tons...

The eighth estimate of the harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds² indicates the production of 148.0 million tons, 10.5% above that obtained in 2009 (134.0 million tons), 1.1% larger than the July estimate and also 1.4% superior to the current record harvest, from 2008 (146.0 million tons). That is what the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA)³ indicates. The area to be harvested, of 46.7 million hectares, is 1.2% below that recorded last year. The production of the three main crops – soy, corn and rice –, which together represent 91.0% of the national total, is estimated in +20.7%, +7.0% and -10.2%, respectively, in relation to the obtained in 2009.

In the analysis by region, the estimated production for 2010 presents the following distribution: South, 63.3 million tons (+20.7%); Central West, 51.7 million tons (+5.9%); Southeast, 17.3 million tons (+0.6%); Northeast, 11.8 million tons (+0.3%) and North, 4.0 million tons (+5.4%). Paraná is the leading national producer of grains, surpassing Mato Grosso – which in 2009 hold this position – in 2.4 percentage points.

Superior predictions for five products

August LSPA highlights estimate variations, in comparison to July, of seven products: sorghum in grain (+3.6%), total corn in grain (+2.4%), coffee in grain (+1.5%), wheat in grain (+0.7%), soy in grain (+0.6%), herbaceous cotton seed (-1.2%) and total beans in grain (-2.0%).

Herbaceous cotton (seed)

The harvest of herbaceous cotton in 2010 must amount 3.0 million tons, a number 1.2% inferior to that recorded in July LSPA. Except for the South region, whose production is inexpressive and has one only representative (Paraná) keeping previous data, the other regions indicated decline. In the Central West, major producer (60.8% of national production), there was a 0.5% decrease due to draught, which brought damage especially to late or second harvest crops, what resulted in the review on average income in Mato Grosso do Sul (-2.5%) and Goiás (-2.9%).

Coffee (in grain)

August LSPA predicts the coffee harvest to amount 2,793,444 tons, or 46.6 million 60-kg bags of processed grains – rise of 1.5% against the July survey. The total area occupied with the crop in the country is 2.364,640 hectares, and the area to be harvested is 2,149,373 hectares. As observed in the previous month, problems regarding fructification in the Southeast became evident – principally in Minas Gerais, major national producer, where high temperatures at Zona da Mata and the excessive number of bloomings in the south of the state damage the coffee culture.

Total beans (in grain)

National bean production in 2010, the three harvests together, is evaluated in 3,305,265 tons, 2.0% inferior to the 2.0% predicted. In comparison with July, beans 2^nd harvest recorded a fall of 7.0%. Decrease in August LSPA is due to the damages occurred in the Northeast, where this production decreased 18.3%. Paraíba, because of draught, records an expressive fall of 74.0%, being now estimated 15,955 tons (against the 61,410 tons estimated in July). In Bahia, also due to irregular climate, there was a decrease of 13.9% in comparison with the previous survey.

Total corn (in grain)

August LSPA indicates that the harvest of corn in grain in 2010 will amount 54.8 million tons, 2.4% above the predicted in July. Such increase is due mainly to changes of data from the second harvest, which presented greater variation; whereas the first, already harvested in the main producing centers, recorded an increase of 1.0%, due to reassessments.

The production of corn 2^nd harvest, estimated in 21.0 million tons, surpassed in 4.8% the information of July (almost 1.0 million tons more), result from the positive reassessment of both 1.3% in the planted area and 3.4% in average income. The Central West, responsible for 61.0% of this harvest total, had a gain of 594,366 tons – of which 592,780 tons coming from Mato Grosso do Sul.

Soy (in grain)

The expected soy production is 68.7 million tons, 0.6% bigger than the informed in July. Except for Pará, the harvest is already finished in the other producing centers and this increase is due to, especially, reviews on harvest data in some Federation Units.

Sorghum (in grain)

Sorghum production must amount 1.6 billion tons, surpassing in 3.6% the predicted in the previous LSPA. This increase reflects income reassessments in the Northeast (0.3%), Southeast (7.6%) and Central West (3.4%), since the area to be harvested declined 0.4%.

Wheat (in grain)

Wheat, the most important winter crop, has an expected production of 5.4 million tons (0.7% above the informed last month). This increase is due to changes in data from the South region, major producing region (93.5% of national production), which increased the planted area in 0.2%, as well as the average income in 1.3%. In Paraná, there were increases of 0.2% and 1.8% in area and production, respectively. In the north and west parts of this state, where plantations are early, harvests amount approximately 10% of the predicted area (1,147,089 ha). In the central south and southwest parts, where plantations are late, this activity has not yet begun. In Santa Catarina and Mato Grosso do Sul, where climate conditions have been favorable, increased average incomes occur, respectively, of 5.5% and 5.6%.

Production estimates in relation to 2009 are higher for 18 products

Among the 25 selected products, 18 presented positive variation in relation to the previous year: oats in grain (+37.0%), barley in grain (+32.7%), corn in grain 2^nd harvest (+22.4%), soy in grain (+20.6%), beans in grain 3^rd harvest (+16.1%), castor beans in segment (+15.6%), coffee in grain (+14.8%), potatoes 2^nd harvest (+13.1%), wheat in grain (+8.1%), orange (+3.9%), cacao nuts (+3.3%), potatoes 1^st harvest (+2.8%), onions (+2.2%), triticale in grain (+2.1%), sugar cane (+1.4%), herbaceous cotton seed (+1.0%), cassava (+0.6%) and potatoes 3^rd harvest (+0.0%). The seven with negative variation are: peanuts in husk 2^nd harvest (-48.5%), peanuts in husk 1^st harvest (-21.1%), beans in grain 2^nd harvest (-15.9%), sorghum in grain (-13.3%), rice in husk (-10.2%), beans in grain 1^st harvest (-3.1%) and corn in grain 1^st harvest (-0.8%).

With around 60% of the harvest already finished, the estimated coffee production (2,793,444 tons) is 14.8% superior to that obtained in 2009. The area to be harvested is 2,149,373 hectares; average income is 1,300 kg/ha, 14.0% larger than that obtained in 2009, an increase characteristic of a year of bumper harvest. The predicted rise in production is due, mainly, to the feature of coffee Arabica, predominating species in the country, to alternate years of high and low productivity. Coffee Conilon, for being more rustic and cultivated in low and warm regions, each time more is planted under irrigation, what makes this characteristic, almost absent in the species, unnoticed.

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¹Due to the need of crop data users, surveys relative to cereals, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Company of Supply (Conab), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (Mapa), as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, initiated in October 2007.

²Seeds of cotton, peanuts, Rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soy, oats, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale.

³The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey of prediction and monitoring of harvests of the harvest of the main agricultural products, about which data are obtained through the Municipal Commissions (Comea) and/or Regional Commissions (Corea), united at state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Group (GCEA) and later, evaluated, at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (Cepagro). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (Mapa).