Retail trade in the country kept a positive result in June 2010, presenting rates of 1% in volume of sales and 0.5% in nominal revenue...

Retail trade in the country kept a positive result in June 2010, presenting rates of 1% in volume of sales and 0.5% in nominal revenue, both seasonally adjusted variations in relation to the previous month. The result completed two consecutive months of growth in volume of sales after the dramatic fall in April. For nominal revenue of sales, it is the sixth consecutive month of positive rates, as shown by the evolution of fixed-base indicators. In the other comparisons, obtained from the original series without seasonal adjustment, the national retail achieved, in terms of volume of sales, increases of the order of 11.3% over June of the previous year and 11.5% and 9.3% in the accumulated of the first six months of the year and the last 12 months, respectively. For the same indicators, nominal revenue of sales presented variation rates of 14%, 14.7% and 12.4%, respectively.

The Extended Retail Trade recorded stability (0%) in relation to the previous month for volume of sales and growth of 0.8% for nominal revenue, both rates seasonally adjusted. Compared to the same month of the previous year without seasonal adjustment, variations were 3.4% for volume of sales and 6.9% for nominal revenue. In the accumulated of the half year and of the last 12 months, the sector presented variation rates of 11.8% and 10.6% for volume of sales and 14.4% and 11.8% for nominal revenue, respectively.

Regarding volume of sales, the activity Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces recorded fall of -9.5% in relation to June 2009, accumulating in the half year and in the last 12 months variations of 11.6% and 14.1%, respectively. The end of the policy of IPI reduction has influenced this result.

Concerning Construction material, variations were 12.2% in relation to June of last year, 16.1% in the accumulated of the half year and 5.1% in the last 12 months. Such performance results from the favorable situation of economy, added to official measures to stimulate civil construction.

Just Piauí did not record a rise in the comparison with June 2009

Among the 27 Federation Units, only Piauí presented a negative result in comparison to June 2009. The main rises occurred in Tocantins (51.1%), Rondônia (36.2%), Acre (26.4%), Roraima (23.8%), Mato Grosso do Sul (19.5%) and Paraíba (18.4%). As to participation in the formation of Retail Trade rate, the highlights were São Paulo (11.7%), Rio de Janeiro (11%), Minas Gerais (12.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (8.1%), Paraná (10.3%) and Santa Catarina (10.6%).

In relation to Extended Retail Trade, the highest performance rates in volume of sales occurred in Tocantins (31.6%), Rondônia (23.4%), Acre (19.4%), Espírito Santo (15.5%) and Amapá (13.2%). Considering the impact on the overall result of the sector, the highlights were Minas Gerais (10%), Rio Grande do Sul (7.9%), Paraná (6.8%), Espírito Santo (15.5%) and Santa Catarina (6.8%). Seasonally adjusted results for volume of sales showed 15 states with positive variations in comparison to the previous month, being highlights Acre (6.7%), Roraima (6.1%), Tocantins (5.3%), Santa Catarina (2.9%), Rio de Janeiro (2.4%) and São Paulo (2.3%).

Analysis by quarter

The variation of 10.2% in Retail Trade in the second quarter of 2010, compared to the same period of 2009, was below the variation of the first quarter of the year (12.8%), but above that of the last quarter of the previous year (8.9%). Comparing the first two quarters of 2010, we verified a rise only for the activity Textiles, apparel and footwear (from 9.5% to 10.5%) and certain stability for Fuels and lubricants (from 5.5% to 5.6%). The other activities presented falls: Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (from 12.4% to 8.5%), Furniture and household appliances (from 21.6% to 19.6%), Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles (from 13.3% to 11.2%), Office, computer and communication material and equipment (from 30% to 22.4%), Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles (from 8.3% to 7.8%) and Other articles of personal and domestic use (from 6.3% to 5.9%).

In terms of Extended Retail Trade, the change rate of the second quarter, of 8.2%, was below that of the first quarter, which was 15.6%, influenced by behaviors of the activities described above together with the result of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, which ranged from 20.8% to 3.3%. The activity Construction material had increase in its variation, changing from 15% to 17.2%.

Half-yearly results

The first half of 2010 presented an 11.5% growth in relation to the same period of the previous year. This result was superior not only to that of the second half of 2009, which reached 7.2%, but to the whole time series of the Monthly Survey of Trade, principally since 2004, where it begins having positive half-yearly indexes. It may be highlighted that in the first half of 2009, Brazilian economy was under the influence of the so-called international financial crisis. Just in the middle of the second half of that year economy became stable, with activities returning to thresholds of the period before crisis.

Volume of sales grew in five of the 10 surveyed activities

For the seasonally adjusted volume of sales, we may observe that five of the 10 surveyed activities obtained positive variations: Office, computer and communication material and equipment (5.4%); Other articles of personal and domestic use (5.2%); Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (1.5%); Textiles, apparel and footwear (1%); Furniture and household appliances (0.6%); Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces (-0.6%); Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles (-0.9%); Fuels and lubricants (-1.2%); Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles (-2.3%) and Construction material (-3.1%).

In comparison with May 2009, in the seasonally adjusted series, all the eight retail activities had increases in volume of sales, with the following rates by order of importance in the overall results: Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (11.9%); Furniture and household appliances (17%); Other articles of personal and domestic use (9.4%); Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles (10.3%); Office, computer and communication material and equipment (23.2%); Fuels and lubricants (5.6%); Textiles, apparel and footwear (4.3%); Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles (4.7%).

The segment Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco, with a variation of 11.9% in volume of sales in June over the same month of the previous year, is the main responsible for growth of retail trade (50%). This result, above average, is also justified by the increased purchasing power of the population due to increased volume of real income usually earned (7.8% over June 2009, according to PME), as well as by behavior of prices that developed in the sector, in the accumulated of the last 12 months, by 3.5% in the group Meals in the Household, below overall inflation measured by IPCA (4.8%). In terms of accumulated in the half year and in the last 12 months, the segment presents increases of 10.4% and 10.1%, respectively.

The activity Furniture and household appliances, with a 17% rise in volume of sales in relation to June of last year, was responsible for the second major contribution (23%) of the overall retail rate. This result must also be attributed to sales related to the World Cup, together with the plentiful credit supply. In the accumulated of the half year and of the last 12 months, variations were 20.6% and 12.8%, respectively.

The activity Other articles of personal and domestic use, which comprises segments like department stores, opticians, jewelry shops, sporting goods stores, toy stores etc., exerted the third major impact in the formation of retail rate, with a variation of 9.4% in volume of sales in relation to June 2009. This result shows that the activity continues being influenced, in good measure, by the evolution of salary volume, which increased considerably in the last 12 months. In accumulated terms, the rate for the first half of the year was of the order of 6.1% and for the last 12 months, of 6.8%.

The activity Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles, with the fourth major participation in the overall retail rate, presented a 10.3% growth in comparison to June of last year and accumulated rates of 12.2% in the half year and 12% for the last 12 months. The expansion of salary and credit volume, added to the character of essential use of its products, is the main factors to explain the positive performance of the segment.

The segment Office, computer and communication material and equipment, responsible for the fifth major impact on the formation of the overall rate, had an increase in volume of sales, in June, of the order of 23.2% over the same period of the previous year and accumulated rates in the half year of 25.8% and in the last 12 months of 15.3%. It is the activity with the highest threshold of growth this month. Among the factors that have determined this performance, the highlight is the price reduction in its products (item Microcomputers reviews a reduction of -7.8% in the last 12 months according to IPCA, for example), conjugated with easier financing and the growing importance that computer and communication products have assumed in families’ consumption habits.

The sixth major contribution to the retail result was made by the segment Fuels and lubricants, with 5.6% of variation in volume of sales in relation to June 2009. In terms of performance accumulated in the half year, the change rate reached 5.5%, and in the last 12 months, to 2.5%. This below average behavior is attributed to the increases in alcohol prices at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, although sharp falls have been recorded in the latest months. In the last 12 months, this subitem recorded a rise of 6.6% against an average inflation of 4.8%, according to IPCA.

The segment Textiles, apparel and footwear, which presented a variation in volume of sales in 4.3% in relation to the same month of the previous year, was responsible for the seventh major contribution to the overall retail rate. This result consolidates the recovery of the sector with the ninth consecutive month of positive variation, even with a behavior of growing prices (variation of 6% in the group Apparel, compared to the general index of 4.8%, according to IPCA), during the last 12 months. In accumulated terms, results were 10.1% for the first half of the year and 4.9% for the last 12 months.

The activity Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles, with a 4.7% growth, exerted the eighth major impact on the retail result. The volume of sales accumulated in the half year obtained a variation of 8.1% and for the last 12 months, of 9.3%. These results may be explained by the positive behavior of the salary volume, as previously seen, as well as by the diversification in the line of commercialized products, principally in large bookstore and stationery article chains.