The national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds must reach a production of 145.2 million tons in 2010, 8.5% superior to that obtained in 2009 (133.8 million tons)¹. This is what the third estimate of national harvest shows, indicating a small increase in relation to the estimate of February (0.02%). The planted area must increase 1.5% in relation to last year, being 47.9 million hectares. The three main crops (rice, corn and soybeans), which account for 81.6% of the planted area, present variations of -4.9%, -4.0%, and 6.4%, respectively, when compared to the 2009 harvest. As regards production, corn and soy recorded increases of 3.0% and 18.1%, whereas rice presented a decrease of 9.6%.

The expected harvest in 2010 has the following regional distribution: South Region, 61.1 million metric tons (16.6%); Central West Region 50.4 million metric tons (3.3%); Southeast, 16.5 million metric tons (-4.2%); Northeast, 13.2 million metric tons (13.8%) and North, 3.9 million metric tons (3.9%).

Paraná holds the position of main national producer of grains, surpassing by 1.3 percentage points the state of Mato Grosso. The latter had held this position last year, since the harvest of Paraná was very affected by harsh climactic conditions, such as droughts in the beginning of 2009, frosts in June and excessive rain in the final period of rain crops. These two Federation Units had, in this estimate, increase in their participation.

Six products were highlights in March

In the March edition of LSPA, the highlights are production estimates for three products, compared to figures in February: herbaceous seed cotton (4.0%), rice in husk (-4.8%), coffee in grain (-4.7%), total beans in grain (-4.3%), total corn in grain (0.4%), soybeans in grain (0.6%).

Herbaceous cotton (seed) - The third estimate for herbaceous cotton (seed) in 2010 is about 3.1 million metric tons, versus 3.0 million metric tons informed last month, showing increase of 4.0%.This increment must be included in Mato Grosso, whose estimated planted area of 403,749 hectares increased 8.4% in relation to the previous month. This occurred, mainly, due to the fact that in this state, the 2^nd harvest of the product with 265,834 hectares (planted in January after the harvesting of soybeans) surpassed, for the first time, summer crops, with 136,801 hectares planted until December. There are also 1,114 irrigated hectares of this product. Climactic conditions, so far, are satisfactory. A highlight is that part of the 2^nd harvest planting was done with reduction of production costs, and lower yield as well.

Rice (in husk) – With reference to Rice crops, in this third estimate for year 2010, the expected production is 11.4 million metric tons, that is, 4.8% less than in February. Such decrease reflects the counting of losses which occurred in the central area of Rio Grande do Sul. In this state, the excess of rain caused delay in planting and losses of area and led to decrease of expected average yield. On the other hand, planting conducted later on may be damaged by low temperatures in the flowering period.

Coffee (in grain) – The national harvest of coffee in grain, according to the survey conducted in March was 2,654,499 metric tons, or 44.2 million sacks. In relation to February, this figure represents decrease of 4.7%. The total area used for this crop presents decrease in relation to the previous month (0.2%), adding up to 2,350,917 hectares. The area directed to harvesting in 2010 is 2,138,443 hectares, above the previous estimate (0.1%). The decreases recorded this month, in relation to February, come from results in Espírito Santo, which presents decrease of 18.1% in the production estimate and of 18.7% in the expected yield, due to bad climactic conditions observed in the south of the state, where Arabic coffee is grown. In this area, the so-called “mountain coffee” has been affected by a long dry period, which accounts for the falling figures. In Minas Gerais, problems observed in previous months, such as high temperatures in the area known as Zona da Mata and the excess of blooming in the southern part of the state account for the decreases. In Minas Gerais, problems observed in previous months, such as high temperatures in Zona da Mata and excess of blooming in the South of the state, causing harm to coffee crops, although the prospects of complete harvests remain throughout the country.

Total beans (grain) – The national production of beans, considering the three harvests of this product, is 3,558,673 metric tons, 4.3% less than in the February survey. This negative change recorded in March resulted from the decrease of 7.4% in the production of 1^st harvest beans. The decrease in this harvest was mainly observed in the Northeast, where the scarcity of rain caused significant decrease in the production of Piauí (68.5%), Rio Grande do Norte (16.5%) e Bahia (24.3%), compared to figures in the previous estimate.

Total corn (grain) – The national production of corn in grain in 2010, for both harvests, amounts to 52.6 million metric tons, causing positive change in March of 0.4% over the February result.

In relation the first harvest of corn, the output must reach 33.5 million metric tons, presenting little decrease of 0.7% compared to the previous harvest. This reduced expectation is due to the northeastern states, where lack of rain has not allowed expected seedling. The output of the main producing areas for this 1^st harvest is distributed as follows: South (45.6%), Southeast (27.2%), Northeast (13.6%) and Central West (9.7%). With reference to 2^nd harvest corn, production is expected to reach 19.1 million metric tons, 2.6% more than in last year. This increment is mainly due to the increase of the area planted in Mato Grosso, the main producer of this harvest of corn. A highlight is that, in this state, average yield points to decrease of 5.4% due to the reduced use of technology, considering the low prices of corn in the market.

Soybeans in grain – For soybeans, in 2010, the expected production is 67.3 million metric tons, 0.6% above that of February. This increase has occurred due to a positive reevaluation of income in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, where climactic conditions remain good in the main producing centers. It is important to highlight that in Mato Grosso, the main national producer harvest is advanced. The excess of rain and the incidence of rust have not damaged the crops excessively; in this evaluation, a slight decrease of 1.4% in the average income was observed for the state.

March estimate in relation to the 2009 harvest was positive for 15 products

Among the twenty-five products selected, fifteen presented positive change in production in relation to the previous year: herbaceous seed cotton (6.2%), 1st harvest potatoes (1.3%), 2nd harvest potatoes (9.2%), coffee in grain (9.1%), sugarcane (1.8%), onions (5.7%), barley in grain (11.8%), 1^st harvest beans in grain (14.0%), oranges (4.0%), castor beans in segment (85.4%), cassava (3.6%), 2^nd harvest corn in grain (11.2%), soybeans in grain (18.1%), wheat in grain (9.4%) and triticale in grain (9.9%). With negative change: 1^st harvest peanuts in grain (9.0%), 2nd harvest peanuts in grain (24.3%), rice in husk (9.6%), oats in grain (10.0%), 3^rd harvest potatoes (6.1%), cacao nuts (0.9%), 2^nd harvest beans in grain (7.0%), 3^rd harvest beans in grain (12.4%), 1^st harvest corn in grain (1.1%) and sorghum in grain (0.1%). 

The March estimate for the coffee to be harvested in 2010 is 2,654,499 metric tons or 44.2 million 60 kg sacks of the product as processed grain. The increase, compared to figures in 2009, was 9.1%, less than the amount estimated for February (14.4%). The area directed to harvest is 2,138,443 hectares. The total area covered with crops in the country decreased 0.9%, as observed in Minas Gerais, Bahia, Paraná, Rio de Janeiro, Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul. The average yield expected is 1,241kg/hectares, 9.0% more than in 2009, differently from the 14.5% expected for February, also considering 2010 as a year of “complete harvest”.

The expected increase in production, in relation to the 2009 harvest, is mainly a consequence of the specific quality of Arabic coffee, a predominant species in the country (70%), besides years of alternation between high and low productivity levels. Conilon coffee, being more rustic and grown in lower and hotter areas, has been more often grown under irrigation, which makes this characteristic to go almost unnoticed.

Predominant meteorological conditions in 2009 appear as abundant and steady rain throughout the year, even in the winter, causing, in spring, unusual occurrence of flowering, especially in Minas Gerais, São Paulo and Paraná. The consequence of this phenomenon, together with a period of high temperatures in the Zona da Mata de Minas Gerais, in the beginning of 2010, will be better evaluated in coming surveys. A negative influence is the long dry period in the South of Espírito Santo, observed since the beginning of the year, especially at the time of grain filling. It is important to highlight that about 30% of all the coffee production in the state is formed by Arabic coffee, which was the most damaged by the volume of rain.

The harvesting of major temporary summer crops, especially soybeans and corn, has increased, principally in the areas where panting occurs sooner. A highlight is that the low prices of this product have led agricultural producers to store their output in order to sell products for better prices. Coming surveys will continue monitoring the harvest of summer crops and the development of the second and third harvests of other products, besides winter crops which, due to the agricultural calendar, have estimates based on projections.

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¹ Due to the needs of users of crop data, surveys relative to Cereal, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (Conab), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October 2007.