Industrial production increased by 1.5% from January to February this year ...

Industrial production increased by 1.5% from January to February this year (seasonally adjusted figure). Compared to the result in February 2009, there was an 18.4% increase. It was the third consecutive two-digit figure in this type of comparison, and reflected, mainly, the low basis for comparison resulting from the world economic crisis. As a consequence, the industrial sector has accumulated increase of 17.2% in the first two months of 2010, whereas the annualized rate (accumulated in the last 12 months), decreased 2.6% and remained on a downward trend, but has recorded the lowest decrease since March 2009 (-1.9%).

With the increase of 1.5% between January and February, after increase of 1.2% in the previous month, industrial production went back to a level close to that of May 2008.

Among the 27 subsectors surveyed, 15 presented increase in this comparison, being the main highlight pharmaceutical industry (15.9%), followed by editing and printing 97.0%) and office machines and computer equipment (15.0%).  These three subsectors had faced decrease in production from December to January, by -6.4%, -5.0% and -6.8%, respectively. Other highlights were the positive contributions of metallurgy (3.0%), machinery and equipment (2.1%) and other chemical products (1.5%). The main negative contributions came from petroleum refining and alcohol production (-2.3%), apparel and accessories (-8.6%0 and metal products (-3.2%).

Also in the comparison with the previous month, in February, semi and non-durable consumer goods (2.4%) had the major increase among all categories of use, and the third consecutive positive result, having accumulated 4.5% rise in this period. The production of capital goods increased 1.7%, after having remained practically stable in the last two months (0.1% in December/ 09 and -0.1% in January this year). The sector of durable consumer goods (0.7%) was positive for the second consecutive month, whereas that of intermediate goods (-0.5%) was the only one to reduce production from January to February, thus interrupting a sequence of 13 months with rising rates, a period which resulted in accumulated increase of 22.4%.

With the growth of industrial activity in February, the quarterly moving average increased 0.8%, after having remained practically stable in January (0.1%). The highlight was the production of final goods, with increase above average: from 1.5% for semi and non-durable consumer goods, which kept the sequence of positive rates which started in September 2009, and 1.0% for durable consumer goods, which presented opposite results after two months facing decrease. Intermediate goods (0.8%) and capital goods (0.6%) also recorded positive rates and remained on an upward trend.

In relation to February 2009, production increased in 24 of the 27 subsectors surveyed

Compared to February 2009 (18.4%), production increased in 24 of the 27 subsectors surveyed. The diffusion index showed advance in 72% of the 755 products investigated, the highest level in the time series which started in January 2003, evidencing a bigger dynamism in the industrial sector, and, at the same time, reflecting a low basis for comparison.

Among the growing activities, the main positive highlights, in order of importance, came from automotive vehicles (36.3%), machinery and equipment (42.3%), metallurgy (35.9%), other chemical products (26.7%), pharmaceutical industry (51.9%), metal products (44.5%) and mining and quarrying industry (20.3%). On the other hand, the most significant negative contribution came from other transportation equipment (-12.7%), also affected by the item airplanes.

Also compared to figures in February last year, all categories of use recorded increase. Capital goods (26.2%) recorded the highest rate since April 2008 (29.7%), affected by most of its subsectors, mainly capital goods for mixed use (32.4%), for construction (196.9%), for transportation (17.2%) and for industrial purposes (25.3%).

The production of durable consumer goods (25.2%) kept a two-digit increase, due to the contribution of cars (20.0%), household appliances (38.3%) - both of the "white" ¹ (24.9%) and "brown" ² type (44.2%) – and mobile telephones (6.6%).

The subsector of intermediate goods (19.4%) kept a sequence of four positive rates, with increase in practically all its subsectors, being the main highlights the products related to the following activities: metallurgy (35.9%), other chemical products (25.6%), mining and quarrying industry (20.4%), automotive vehicles (43.0%), metal products (53.2%) and rubber and plastic (25.8%). It is also worth mentioning the positive contribution of inputs for construction (15.1%), with the most significant increase since July 1996 (16.8%), and packages (18.3%), with the major increase since the beginning of the time series, in 2003.

Semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (10.5%), the only category of use with a performance below average in this comparison (18.4%), had positive results in all the subsectors, especially in other non-durable goods (16.7%), elaborated food products and beverages for domestic use (5.5%), fuels (13.5%) and semi-durable and non-durable goods (8.5%).

Automotive vehicles account for the main positive contribution in 2010

Considering the indicator accumulated in the first two months of 2010, compared to the figure in the same period of 2009, there was an overall profile of increase (17.2%), with higher results in 24 of the 27 activities surveyed. Automotive vehicles (38.9%) kept the leadership with positive results, affected by a 92% increase of the products surveyed. Other positive contributions came from machinery and equipment (37.8%), other chemical products (29.9%) and metallurgy (34.7%). Among the three decreasing subsectors, the highlight was other transportation equipment (-16.7%).

Among the categories of use, the highlights were durable consumer goods (30.2%), intermediate goods (20.0%) and capital goods (19.1%), whereas the production of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (8.0%) increased below average.

Indicator accumulated in 12 months decreased at a lower rate

Showing reduction of the rhythm of increase since October last year, the index accumulated in the last 12 months increased 4.8 percentage points between the end of 2009 (-7.4%) and February 2010 (-2.6%). Considering these two moments (end of 2009 and February), the indicator was positive for durable consumer goods (-6.4% in December last year and 1.5% in February this year) and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-1.5% and 0.5%). For capital goods (-17.4% in December / 09 and -12.7% in February) and intermediate goods (-8.8% and -3.1%), although the rates remain negative, there is reduction of the rhythm of decrease. 

Most activities (25 out of 27) recorded acceleration of production between the two period mentioned, especially automotive vehicles (from -12.4% in the end of 2009 to -3.2% in February), metal products (from -14.6% to -5.6%), metallurgy (from -17.6% to -9.0%), other chemical products (from -4.3% to 4.0%) and machinery and equipment (from -18.5% to -10.3%).

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