IBGE conducted, in December, the third prognosis of area and production for the 2010 harvest, in the Southeast, South and Central-West regions and in the states of Rondônia, Maranhão, Piauí and Bahia. The production of grains, legumes and oilseeds¹ for 2010 is estimated in 140.7 million tons², 5.2% larger than that obtained in 2009. The area to be harvested, from 48.1 million hectares, presents an increase of 2.0%. The information from the prognosis survey represents 73.5% of the expected national production, and the projections account for 26.5% of the total estimated for 2010.

 

 

Positive variation for seven products

 

When considering just the 11 products selected for the prognosis, the following present positive variations in the expected production: beans in grain 1^st harvest (+17.9%), coffee in grain (+15.2%), soy in grain (+14.4%), onions (+10.5%), tobacco in leaf (+3.9%), cassava (+2.9%) and potatoes 1^st harvest (+1.0%). On the other hand, the following must have production decrease: peanuts in husk 1^st harvest (-10.6%), rice in husk (-5.0%), corn in grain 1^st harvest (-3.2%) and herbaceous cotton seed (-1.1%).

 

In relation to the harvested area, six products presented positive variation regarding 2009: soy in grain (+5.8%), beans in grain 1^st harvest (+3.3%), cassava (+2.2%), tobacco in leaf (+2.1%), onions (+1.6%) and coffee in grain (+0.2%). With negative variation, corn in grain 1^st harvest (-7.1%), herbaceous cotton seed (-5.0%), peanut in husk 1^st harvest (-4.5%), rice in husk (-2.1%) and potatoes 1^st harvest (-1.3%).

 

Cotton seed

 

The third prognosis is of the order of 2,911,529 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% regarding the 2,943,136 million tons obtained in 2009. Such a decrease is explained by the reduction of area, due to the discouragement of producers to cultivate this crop because of the high production costs, difficulty in achieving financings, and low prices. Mato Grosso, the major producer (46.3% of national production) reduced the area to be harvested by 4.3%, and the expected production by 4.7%.

 

Rice

 

In this third assessment for 2010, the expected production is 12.0 million tons, 5.0% inferior to that obtained in 2009. This decrease is due principally to Rio Grande do Sul (60.7% of national production), with a decrease of 8.1% in the expected production and 2.9% in the area, because of the excessive rain.

 

Beans 1^st harvest

 

The surveys show a production of 1.9 million tons, 17.9% bigger than that obtained in 2009 (1.6 million tons). The estimate suffered a decrease of 1.1% compared to the previous prognosis because of Paraná, which had its production negatively reassessed (-2.0%) due to damages caused by the excessive rain.

 

Corn 1^st harvest

 

A production of 32.8 million tons is expected, 3.2% inferior to that verified in 2009, reflecting the decrease in the total planted area (-10.2%). Unfavorable conditions remain, as a result of low prices in the market, as shown by the stocked volume.

 

Soybeans

 

The expected production for 2010 is 65.2 million tons, 14.4% superior to that obtained in 2009. The area to be harvested must grow by 5.8% (23.0 million ha), and the expected average yield records an increase of 8.1% (2,836 kg/ha). Climate conditions, up to the present survey, are quite favorable to the crop.

 

Coffee

 

The expected production is 2,804,053 tons (46.7 million bags of 60 kg) of processed grains. The increase percentage in relation to 2009 is 15.2%. The area to be harvested is 2,141,809 ha, a rise of 0.2% in the comparison. The expected average yield is 1,309 kg/ha, 14.9% higher than that obtained in 2009.

 

Production of 2009 is the second in the historical series

 

In December, the estimate of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2009 indicates 133.8 million tons, 8.3% inferior to that obtained in 2008 (a record of 146.0 million tons) and just 0.2% inferior to the estimate of November (134.1 million tons). The decrease is due especially to wheat, which presents a decreased average yield in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul.

 

The three main crops – soybeans, corn and rice –, which account for 81.4% of the harvested area, present variations of +2.2%, -4.6% and +0.9%, respectively, in relation to 2008. As to the production of these three crops, just rice records a positive variation (+4.2%). For soybeans and corn, production decreases were -4.8% and -13.5%, respectively.

 

The harvested area, of 47.2 million hectares, presents a decrease of -0.2% in relation to 2008 and just 11,831 ha (0.0%) in comparison to the survey of November.

 

The harvest gathered in 2009 presents the following regional distribution: South Region, 52.4 million tons (-14.6%); Central West, 48.8 million tons (-3.9%); Southeast, 17.2 million tons (-2.4%); Northeast, 11.6 million tons (-6.7%) and North, 3.8 million tons (-0.1%). The next figure shows that Mato Grosso surpassed Paraná in 2.9 percentage points, becoming the major national grain producer.

  

In December, negative variations in five products

 

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) of December highlights variations in the production estimates of three crops: barley in grain (-15.9%), oats in grain (-14.7%), triticale in grain (-11.7%), wheat in grain (-3.0%) and beans in grain 2^nd harvest (-1.7%).

 

Total beans (in grain)

 

The national production of beans in 2009 reached 3,478,775 tons: 1,642,946 tons in the 1^st harvest (47.2%), 1,430, 040 tons in the 2^nd harvest (41.1%) and 405,789 tons in the 3^rd harvest (11.7%). In the comparison with the LSPA of November, the 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd harvests of the crop recorded falls of 0.5%, 1.7%, and 0.3%, respectively.

 

Winter cereals (in grain)

 

For winter crops, concentrated in the South of the country, the highlights are the reassessments of oats (-14.7%), barley (-15.9%), wheat (-3.0%) and triticale (-11.7%). For wheat, main crop of this period, the obtained production of 4.9 million tons was 3.0% inferior to that informed in November. In Paraná, major producer (49.6% of national production), rains propitiated a higher incidence of blast, damaging the crops in both quality and quantity of grains.

 

Estimate of December in relation to the 2008 harvest is lower for 15 products

 

Among the 25 selected products, 15 presented negative variations in the production estimate in relation to the previous year: castor beans in segment (-31.2%), herbaceous cotton seed (-25.9%), triticale in grain (-19.6%), wheat in grain (-16.0%), corn in grain 1^st harvest (-15.3%), barley in grain (-14.9%), coffee in grain (-12.8%), potatoes 2^nd harvest (-10.9%), corn in grain 2^nd harvest (-9.8%), potatoes 1^st harvest (-7.8%), sorghum in grain (-6.4%), soybeans in grain (-4.8%), peanuts in husk 1^st harvest (-3.4%), beans in grain 3^rd harvest (-3.1%) and oranges (-0.3%). The 10 products that presented positive variation are: peanuts in husk 2^nd harvest (+19.7%), potatoes 3^rd harvest (+6.1%), sugarcane (+5.9%), cacao nuts (+5.8%), onions (+5.7%), rice in husk (+4.2%), beans in grain 2^nd harvest (+2.2%), oats in grain (+1.7%), cassava (+1.1%) and beans in grain 1^st harvest (+0.1%).

  

The final figures show that rice and sugarcane grew due to the opening of new markets. The gain observed in rice production occurred principally because of the expanded cultivated area in Rio Grande do Sul and of the increased average yield that was obtained, considering the good weather conditions during the crop development cycle.

 

Sugarcane

 

The decreased price of petroleum and the world credit crisis that erupted in the middle of the second semester of 2008 made the sugar and ethanol sector review its investments, adapting them to a new reality. Thus, in 2009 the high growth levels of previous years were not observed, even with the postponed establishment of new processing plants in the main producing centers.

 

Corn and soybeans

 

The two main temporary summer crops – corn and soybeans – recorded decreases. In the case of corn, this may be partially credited to the large national stocks observed on December 31, 2008, 118.2% superior to that verified a year before; to the low prices at the time of planting; and also to the uncertainty regarding future demands of the product.

 

In the case of soybeans, although the planted area has been 2.2% superior to that of 2008, adverse weather conditions, principally drought, led to a decrease of 6.9% in the average crop yield, changing from the 2,817 kg/ha reached in 2008 to the 2,624 kg/ha obtained in this 2009 harvest.

 

Cotton, affected by the credit crisis and by the low trade prices, had a reduction of 23.2% in the planted area, in comparison to 2008. At the same time, unfavorable weather conditions caused a decrease of 3.6% in the obtained average yield.

 

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¹Seeds of cotton, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soy, oats, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale.

 

²Due to the needs of crop data users, surveys relative to cereals, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA), as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October 2007.