In September, industrial production in Brazil increased 0.8% compared to the result in the previous month, remaining in a sequence of nine months with consecutive positive results in this type of comparison; in this period, there was accumulated increase of 14.6%. Compared to similar periods last year, however, the rates remain negative: -7.8% in relation to September 2008; -11.6% accumulated in the year (Jan-Sep); and -10.3% accumulated in the last 12 months (accumulated rate).

In the third quarter of 2009, the result was negative in relation to that in the previous year (-8.3%) and positive compared to that in the immediately previous quarter (4.1%), in the seasonally adjusted series.

The increase of 0.8% in production between August and Septmber reached most of (17) the 27 adjusted subsectors, being the highlight, machinery and equipment (5.8%) and automotive vehicles (3.5%). Other relevant contributions came from machinery, appliances and equipment (2.8%); other chemical products (1.4%); mining and quarrying industry (1.6%); and perfumery, soaps and cleaning products (5.0%). The main negative contributions came from petroleum refining and alcohol production (-4.7%); food products (-1.0%); and office, computer and communication machinery and equipment (-5.3%).

Among the categories of use, the subsector of capital goods had the major increase (5.8%), having accumulated gain of 14.8% in the six consecutive months of expansion in 2009, being followed by intermediate goods (0.8%), a subsector which has kept its positive results since the beginning of the year.

The indexes for consumer goods were negative from August to September: durable goods (-1.1%) and semi-durable and non-durable goods (-0.7%). The decrease in the sector of durable goods occurred after eight months of increase, meaning rise of 82.0% in this period; the fall of production of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods interrupted a sequence of two consecutive positive results.

The quarterly moving average index kept the expansion which started in March 2009, with increase of 1.4% from August to September. Among the categories of use, there was an upward trend, being the highlight capital goods (2.7%), which has increased for the fourth consecutive month, having accumulated increase of 8.2% in this period. The subsectors of durable consumer goods (2.1%) and intermediate goods (1.1%) also increased; and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (0.4%) interrupted a sequence of three months with falling rates.

Production of capital goods increased in the 3rd quarter, interrupting a sequence of three negative ones

In the third quarter of the year (seasonally adjusted series), the industrial production registered the second positive result in comparison with that in the immediately previous quarter (4.1%), having accumulated increase of 8.1%. There was also slight acceleration of increase compared to the rate in the second quarter of the year (3.9%).

Among the categories of use, durable consumer goods pointed to the highest increase rate (9.2%), after having increased by 2.1% in the first and by 11.5% in the second quarter, mainly affected by fiscal incentive, credit offers and the maintenance of salary volume. The subsector of capital goods (6.1%) interrupted a sequence of three consecutive quarters with negative rates, in a period with accumulated decrease of 27.1%. The subsector of intermediate goods (3.8%) had its second consecutive positive result, having accumulated increase of 7.5%, whereas semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods remained stable (0.0%), after having increased by 1.5% in the period April-June.

Compared to year 2008, production remains negative in all categories of use

Compared to the result in 2008, industrial production decreased (-7.8%) more significantly than in August (-7.2%). However, it is worth mentioning that September 2009 had one more business day than September 2008.

Most (21) of the 27 subsectors surveyed had negative indexes: automotive vehicles (-16.6%) remained as the main item in the formation of the overall rate, followed by machinery and equipment (-20.0%); metallurgy (-13.1%); electric machines, appliances and material (-21.0%); and mining and quarrying industry (-9.3%). Among the six activities which had increase, other chemical products (4.5%); beverages (6.8%); and perfumery articles, soaps and cleaning products (11.9%) accounted for the most significant contributions to the rate.

Also compared to the same month in 2008, there was decrease of production in all the categories of use. The subsector of capital goods had the most negative rate (-20.5%), affected by the negative performance of all its subsectors, especially capital goods for transportation (-18.9%), for industrial purposes (-32.4%) and for electricity (-39.0%).

The performance of intermediate goods (-7.5%) was affected by the negative behavior of several of its subsectors, especially those of metallurgy-related products (-13.2%), mining and quarrying industry (-9.3%), automotive vehicles (-19.9%), food products (-11.1%) and metal products (-16.1%). It is also worth mentioning the negative contributions of inputs to construction (-7.4%) and of the packaging subsector (-3.0%). The most relevant positive contributions came from items related to petroleum refining and alcohol production (4.9%) and other chemical products (4.2%). 

In durable consumer goods (-6.4%), the most significant negative contributions came from cars (-5.7%), mobile telephones (-8.5%) and household appliances (-1.6%), mainly those of the “brown type”¹ (-23. 4%), since those of the “white type”²  had increase of 19.1%. The result of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-3.9%) was mainly affected by fuels (-19.8%). The only subsector in this category which presented increase in production was elaborated food products and beverages (2.2%).

Industry reduces decrease from the third quarter of 2008 to the same one in 2009

The industrial sector has had negative results in the quarterly index, compared to the same period in the previous year, since the fourth quarter of 2008 (-6.3%). In the third quarter of 2009 (-8.3%), however, there was reduction of decrease. In the first semester of the year, overall reduction was -13.4%, being -14.6% in the first and -12.3% in the second quarter.  

In the same comparison, all categories of use had less significant decreases in the third quarter of 2009, when compared to the result in the first semester of the year. This situation was particularly relevant in terms of durable consumer goods, which changed from -19.3% in the first quarter to -5.6% in the third one, affected by electrical appliances (from -13.4% to 2.8%), mainly those of the “white type” (from -4.2% to 23.7%), cars (from -13.8% to -7.0%) and mobile telephones (from -41.2% to -8.6%).

Intermediate goods also faced reduction of decrease (from -15.7% in the first quarter to -9.2% in the third one), mainly affected by the items related to the activities of automotive vehicles – car pieces (from -32.6% to -23.7%), metallurgy (from -27.8% to -16.3%), mining and quarrying industry (from -13.8% to -10.0%) and other chemical products (from -14.0% to -1.3%).

In the same comparison, the subsectors of capital goods (from – 23.0% to -22.2%) and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (from -3.1% to -2.7%) had more moderate increased.

Considering results accumulated in the year, 23 of the 27 activities surveyed faced production decrease

The rate accumulated from January to September (-11.6%) results from negative performances in 23 of the 27 activities – and in 62 of the 76 industrial subsectors. The main negative contribution came from automotive vehicles (-21.9%), followed by machinery and equipment (-25.9%), metallurgy (-23.9%) and electronic material and communication equipment (-33.2%). All the categories of use faced production decrease: capital goods (-22.7%) had the biggest decrease, followed by durable consumer goods (-14.5%) and intermediate goods (-13.5%). Semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods faced less significant decrease (-2.9%).

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¹ Television sets, sound and DVD equipment. 

² Refrigerators and freezers; stoves; washing machines and dryers.