In October 2009, industrial production increased by 2.2% in comparison with the previous month, in the seasonally-adjusted series. By comparison with the same periods of last year, the indexes remained negative: -3.2% in relation to October 2008, and -10.7% in the accumulated January-October. The accumulated rate in the last 12 months recorded -10.6%, keeping the downward trend, but with a slower rhythm than in the previous months.

 With the increase of 2.2% observed in the total industry between September and October, production level was 5.7% below the record achieved in September 2008. This increased rhythm of activity in October was spread among industrial sectors, affecting 21 of the 27 surveyed branches. Among those, the major performance for the overall result came from automotive vehicles (11.2%), which, after the strong production adjustment at the end of last year, accumulated a gain of 107.1% in relation to December 2008. It is also a highlight the expansion of 3.0% recorded in food products, followed by advances in beverages (4.0%), basic metallurgy (2.6%) and pharmaceutical products (3.1%). On the other hand, the main negative influences came from other chemical products (-1.9%); optical, medical and hospital equipment (-7.2%), and office, computer, and communication machinery and equipment (-3.8%).

Among the categories of use, still in the month/previous month comparison, the sectors of capital goods and durable consumer goods, both with rates of 5.9%, had a substantial expansion from September to October, followed by semi- and non-durable consumer goods (1.3%) and intermediate goods (1.2%), which grew below overall average (2.2%). In this comparison the highlights are capital goods, which in the last two months progressed in a rhythm superior to the average increase of 2.8% observed from April to October.

The positive performance of industrial activity in October confirmed the upward trend of the quarterly moving average index observed in the last eight months. In general industry, the increase recorded between September and October was 1.8%, repeating the increase of the previous month. Capital goods exhibited a greater increase (3.9%), among categories of use, accelerating the rhythm in relation to the previous month (2.5%), followed by capital goods (2.8%) and intermediate goods (1.2%). The sector of semi- and non-durable consumer goods, with an increase of 0.6%, recorded the second consecutive positive rate.

By comparison to the same month of the previous year, industrial production has shown a retreat for 12 months, with the October rate of -3.2% recording the slightest decrease of this period. There was a difference of two business days short in October 2009, compared to October 2008. The result of this month reflects the recovery of the sector observed since the beginning of 2009, when the monthly index changed from -17.5% in January to -3.2% in October. The fall in the reduction rhythm is also confirmed in the diffusion index, which, after recording a production decrease of 77% in the 755 products surveyed in February 2009, reduced this percentage to 55% in October, its lowest level since November of last year. By sector, the fall in October affected 18 of the 27 investigated activities, with the highest negative pressure coming from machinery and equipment (-13.7%), followed by basic metallurgy (-10.3%), electronic material and communication equipment (-15.2%), automotive vehicles (-4.7%), electric machines and devices (-15.2%) and mining and quarrying industry (-8.1%).

In those branches, the most significant influences came from machining centers and ball bearing for industrial equipment; aluminum and steel laminated items; cell phones and television sets; trucks; transformers and electric wires and conductors; and iron ore. The cited sectors showed less intense falls in October than in previous months. On the other hand, the most relevant positive impacts came from other chemical products (11.1%) petroleum refining and alcohol production (5.0%), because of the increased production of herbicides and fertilizers, in the first branch, and diesel oil in the second.

Durable consumer goods were the only category of use to record growth in relation to October 2008 (2.8%). With this performance, the sector interrupted 12 months of negative rates, stimulated especially by the increased production of cars, which recorded 9.7% of expansion after a year of fall. The production of household appliances (4.5%) also increased in relation to October 2008, especially influenced by the “white line” (27.1%), which has been growing for six months. Negative pressure came from the production of cell phones, with a decrease of 12.3%. The sector of semi- and non-durable consumer goods retreated by 0.7%, reflecting the negative behavior of fuels (-12.7%) and semi-durable (-6.1%), where the reduction in items alcohol and gasoline, in the first sub sector, and CDs and shirts, except T-shirts, in the second, exerted the main impacts. The relevant positive pressure was recorded by the group food products and beverages for domestic consume (2.8%), which has been increasing for four months. This is explained greatly by the increased production of beer, draft beer and sterilized milk. The difference of two business days short in October 2009 has impact on the category consumer goods. Thus, seasonally adjusted, the production of consumer goods in October 2009, compared to the same month of the previous year, would be 4.7%, and that of semi- and non-durable consumer goods, -0.3%.

Still in the comparison with the same month of last year, the retreat of 2.5% in the production of intermediate goods was below the average of industry (-3.2%), with positive contribution from intermediate products associated to the activities of petroleum refining and alcohol production (16.6%), other chemical products (10.8%) and cellulose and paper (2.2%), besides the increase of 1.1% in the production of packages after 12 months of fall. On the other hand, contributing to the retreat in overall result, there is the negative influence of products associated to basic metallurgy (-10.3%), mining and quarrying industry (-8.2%), automotive vehicles (-11.5%) and chemical products (-12.6%), pressed principally by reductions in: aluminum and steel laminated items; iron ore; car parts and pieces; herbicides for use in agriculture. There is also the negative index observed in inputs for civil construction (-6.0%). The segment capital goods had the most accentuated fall (-16.8%) among the categories of use, influenced by reductions in the production of all its groups, highlighting losses recorded for capital goods for transportation (-13.4%), pressed principally by the decreased production of trucks; followed by capital goods for industrial use (-32.3%), for mixed use (-10.9%), for electricity (-25.8%) and for construction (-27.0%).

The indicator accumulated for January-October retreated by 10.7%, reflecting the falls observed in 23 of the 27 industrial branches, with the main negative impacts coming from automotive vehicles (-20.1%), machinery and equipment (-24.6%), basic metallurgy (-22.4%), electronic material and communication equipment (-31.1%), electric machines and appliances (-23.2%) and mining and quarrying industry (-11.9%). On the other hand, pharmaceutical sectors (7.6%) and beverages (6.6%) exerted the main positive impacts. Among categories of use, the sector of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-2.7%), relatively more protected against the effects of the crisis, showed a fall inferior to the average of industry (-10.7%). The other decreases were: 12.3% in intermediate goods, followed by durable consumer goods (-12.7%) and capital goods (-22.0%).

Summing up, the increased rhythm of industrial activity in October (2.2%) had a generalized profile, affecting most (21) of the 27 industrial sectors, and contributed for the sector to accumulate 19.5% of expansion in 2009. October showed the greatest marginal progress since July (2.4%), surpassing the average rhythm of 1.8% observed in the first 10 months of the year. This performance summarizes the most recent positive effects of investment recovery on industrial activity, besides the stimuli of tax exemptions, employment and salary maintenance, with direct effect on the level of domestic consumption. Comparisons with 2008 remain negative, but decreasing, as the monthly index of October (-3.2%), showing a lower decrease since October 2008 and the accumulated in the year reducing the fall rhythm in relation to results of the previous months.