Life expectancy at birth of the population, both sexes, in Brazil changed from 69.66 years (69 years, 7 months and 29 days) to 72.86 years (72 years, 10 months and 10 days). Brazilians born in 2008 are expected to live, on average, 3 years, 2 months and 12 days more than the ones born in 1998. In 2008 life expectancy at birth among the male population was 69.11 years, and among women, 76.71 years. Between 1970 and 2008, infant mortality decreased from 100 to 23.30 deaths per 1,000 live births. Even considering the period between1998 and 2008, the decrease of infant mortality prevented over 200 thousand deaths. However, from 1998 to 2008, a total 68 young men aged 15 to 24 died every day due to external causes, amounting to about 272.5 thousand deaths. In this period, among youngsters aged 20 to 24, external causes were responsible for the deaths of 9 men for each woman. Information related to such issues is presented in below, and has been obtained from IBGE’s Mortality Tables relative to year 2008.

 

Since 1999, IBGE has released, annually, Complete Mortality Tables for the Brazilian population, relative to July 1st of the previous year. This release has taken place in accordance with Article 2 of Presidential Decree no 3,266, of November 29, 1999. The mortality table presents life expectancy for exact figures of up to 80 years of age, and has been used by the Ministry of Social Security as a parameter of the social security factor of retirement pensions under the General Social Security System.

 

From 1998 to 2008, life expectancy at birth increased by over three years

 

Life expectancy at birth of the population, both sexes, in Brazil changed from 69.66 years (69 years, 7 months and 29 days) to 72.86 years (72 years, 10 months and 10 days), indicating that a Brazilian born in might is expected expect to live 3 years, 2 months and 12 days more than one born in 1998.

 

From 1998 to 2008, decrease of infant mortality prevented over 200 thousand deaths

 

In Brazil, infant mortality rate decreased 30% in the last decade, and changed from 33.24‰ in 1998 to 23.30‰ in 2008, indicating that, this year, for each 1,000 live births, there were 23.3 deaths before 1 year of age. In this period, infant mortality among male babies decreased from 37.51‰ to 26.91‰ (reduction above 28%), whereas among female babies the figure changed from 28.79‰ to 19.55‰ (decrease of 32%).

 

Throughout the period, the decrease of infant mortality in Brazil represented a total 205 thousand infant lives saved. If infant mortality had remained stable since 1998, the country would have had, in the past 11 years, 1,261,570 deaths of children under 1 year of age, and not the 1,055,816 estimated deaths. Infant mortality rat in Brazil is about the same level as that of countries such as Afghanistan (157.00/1,000), Chad (129.9/1,000), Angola (117.5/1,000), Sierra Leone (104.30/1,000) and Liberia (95.10/1,000). However, Brazil keeps a huge difference from the conditions in Iceland (2.90 /1,000), Singapore (3.00 /1,000), Japan (3.20 /1,000), Sweden (3.10/1,000) and Norway (3.50/1,000).

 

From 1998 to 2008, external causes killed 9 young men per each woman

 

Excess mortality among men can also be measured by the number of deaths obtained by age and sex. In the group aged 20-24, both in 1998 and in 2008, the occurrence of violent deaths was 9 times higher than among women. On the other hand, deaths by natural causes also occurred at a bigger rate among men, however, also significantly low if compared to those due to violent causes.

 

In 2008, on average, external causes killed men 30 years younger than natural causes did

 

Between 1998 and 2008, the aging process of the population contributed to the increase of the average age at the occasion of death, by 7.0 years for men and 8.8 years for women.

The increase of life expectancy at birth was similar for men and women; the difference between both sexes remained stable throughout the period, and life expectancy at birth of women, 7.60 years (7 years, 7 months and 6 days) was higher than that of men. So, in 2008 a newly-born male baby is expected to live 69.11 years, whereas a female one is expected to live 76.71 years.

Besides life expectancy at birth, it is possible to analyze life expectancy at other exact ages. In this specific case, life expectancy at 60 years of age for both sexes increased from 19.93 years to 21.16 years in the last decade, so much so that if a person turned 60 in 2008 he would expect to live up to  81.16 years. Among men, this figure increased from 18.49 to 19.46 years and among women, from 21.26 to 22.70 (Table 4). A man at 80 years of age in 2008 would be expected to live up to 88.94 years, and a woman the same age up to 89.93 years.

 

Compared to Japan, Hong Kong (China), Switzerland, Iceland, Australia, France and Italy, where average life expectancy is above 81 years, Brazil still had relatively low figures in 2008. Only around 2040 would Brazil reach life expectancy at the level of 80 years of age. At a global scale, life expectancy at birth (for both sexes) estimated by the United Nations Population Division for the period 2005-201 is 67.58 years, and 75.55 years for the five-year period 2045-2050.

 

When counting deaths due to external causes, in age groups, it was possible to observe that, on average, there were, in Brazil, 241 deaths of men between 1998 and 2008, and 150 of these  victimized men aged  whose ages ranged from 15 and 39 (Table 7).

 

From 1998 to 2008, 68 youngsters died due to external causes every day

 

When counting deaths due to external causes, in age groups, it was possible to observe that, on average, there were, in Brazil, 241 deaths of men between 1998 and 2008, and 150 of these  victimized men aged  whose ages ranged from 15 and 39 (Table 7).

 

Table 7.1 shows that, in the period analyzed, and in the age group of 15- 24, a total 272,462 young men died to external causes in Brazil, that is, more than twice the number of deaths by natural causes for the same age group. The table also shows striking differences in the number of natural and violent deaths, by sex.

 

The median age of the population has also rose and it is expected to almost double between 1980 and 2035, by changing from 20.20 years to 39.90 years, respectively,  being possible to reach 46.20 years, in 2050. Median age is the age that separates the age distribution into two groups of 50% each (Graph 3).

 

Another indicator which shows the aging process of the Brazilian population is the aging index (division of the number of elderly by the number of children). Between 2035 and 2040 the elderly population (aged 65 and over) may reach a pattern 18% higher than that of children (0 to 14 years of age and over) and, in 2050, this ratio may be 172.7 elderly persons for each 100 children.

 

By keeping the population parameters implicit in the population projections of Brazil, the country will soon cover a demographic profile which gets older each day. This phenomenon, undoubtedly, will result in the adaptation of social policies, especially of those aimed at fulfilling the growing demands in the fields of health, social security and social assistance (Graph 9).

 

Between 1970 and 2008, infant mortality decreased from 100 to 23.30 deaths per live births

 

Infant mortality in Brazil, estimated as 23.30 infant deaths per each 1,000 live births, in 2008, is high if compared to that of neighboring countries for the period 2005 - 2010, for example (13.40/1,000, in Argentina; 7.20/1,000 , in Chile and 13.10/1,000, in Uruguay). However, advance is undeniable, because, around 1970, the rate was close to 1000.

 

The combined effect of the reduction of fertility and mortality levels in Brazil has led to changes in the age patterns of its population, especially from the middle of the 1980’s on.

 

New population profile offers opportunities and requires action

 

It is important to highlight that, at present, the population at the age to join the job market (15 - 24 years) reaches a maximum of 34 million persons, a figure which is expected to remain significantly stable until 2020, when it is expected to decrease.

 

The use of this demographic opportunity would lead to dynamism and to economic increase of the nation, if these people are prepared in terms of both education and professional qualification to join a labor market  that grows more competitive every day, not only at national level, but also at a global scale.

 

It is worth mentioning that this opportunity is deeply connected to the job market, since it must have the capacity to generate employment so as to include a high number of persons at the right age to work, at the same time a significant number retires every year.

With reference to violent deaths, the most significant change in the average age occurred among women (8.4 years) whereas the age rise among men was only 2.2 years. These figures show that men remained dying at an earlier age, of either natural or violent causes, compared to women.

 

There is significant difference between the average ages of natural deaths compared to those of violent deaths. In 2008, whereas men died, on average, at 65.2 years of age due to natural causes, violent deaths occurred at na age close to 37.

 

Between 1950 and 2000, annual increase of the population fell from 3.04% to 1.64%

 

Since the 19th century, Brazil has been characterized by the prevalence of high birth and mortality rates. The 1940’s brought the beginning of mortality rates decline, with the continuation of high birth rates, a fact which led to high population growth rates: 2.39% in the 1940’s and 3.04%in the 1950’s. Birth rates only went into decline in the middle of the 1960’s, with the initial dissemination of oral contraceptive methods in Brazil.

 

In the 1970’s, both mortality and fertility were in process of decline. In the 1980’s, the fast decrease of birth rate, due to the propagation of female sterilization in the country, led to even lower increase rates (1.93%, between 1980 and 1991, and 1.64%, between 1991 and 2000).

 

Between 1960 and 2000, the number of children per woman fell from  5.76 to 2.39

 

Until 1960, the estimated birth rate in Brazil was slightly above 6 children per woman. The Population Census of 1970 showed a small reduction of this indicator (5.76 children per women). The average number of children per woman in 1991 was already 2.89 and, in 2000, 2.39. PNADs (National Household Sample Surveys) 2006, 2007 and 2008 presented estimated which placed female fertility in Brazil below the level of replacement for coming generations (1.99; 1.95 and 1,86 child per woman, respectively).

 

From 1940 to 2008, life expectancy changed 45.50 years to 72.86 years

 

Life expectancy of Brazilians in 1940 not even reached 50 years of age (45.50 years). Advances in medicine and improvements in general life conditions of the population also led to the increase of this indicator up to 72.86 years, in 2008, that is, 68 years later. According to IBGE’s population projections, in 2050 this indicator is expected to reach 81.29 years.

 

Participation of elderly persons in the population will be almost the same as that of youngsters in 2030

 

The typically triangular shape of a population pyramid, with a wide base, has given way to a population pyramid which characterizes a society facing a fast aging process.

  

In 1980, children aged 0-14 made up 38.24% of the population and, in 2009, they represented 26.04%. The number of persons aged 65 and over changed from 4.01% to 6.67% in the same period. In 2050, the former group will make up 13.15%, at the same time the elderly population will exceed the 22.71% of the overall population.

 

After 2010, mortality table will encompass higher ages

 

The mortality table adopted by IBGE covers up to the open age group of 80 years of age and over. With the increase of population at higher ages, it is necessary to effect adjustments in the methodology used for the elaboration of the new revision of population projection in Brazil. This revision will be carried out when the results of the 2010 Demographic Census becomes available and it is expected to provide structures projected by sex and age up to 100 years of age.

 This new type of release is also going to be applied to mortality tables built for Federation Units. Another change refers to the addition of one more decimal place to life expectancy figures.

Some tests have already been conducted and others will be included with the objective of identifying the best model to represent elderly mortality patterns. With the mortality of 2008 and its open age group of 80 and over, it is possible to observe, for example, that life expectancy for both sexes would reach 89, 50 years. As an example, it can be said that the aforementioned table, when extended up to the 100 years of age, shows that the final average age of the Brazilian population would reach 104.14 years (Tables 6 and 6.1).