The estimated population of the municipality of São Paulo exceeds 11 million.

The Brazilian Court of Audit (TCU) uses IBGE’s population estimates as a parameter for the distribution of shares of the Participation Fund of States and Municipalities.

IBGE has released today, August 14, 2009, the estimates of resident population in the 5,565 Brazilian municipalities on July 1st, 2009. This study is released annually, in accordance with Complementary Law no. 59, of December 22, 1998, and Article 102 of Law no. 8443, of July 16, 1992.

Population estimates, which are essential to the calculation of economic and socio-demographic indicators in the periods between censuses, are also useful as a parameter for the distribution, established by the Brazilian Court of Audit, of shares relative to the Participation Fund of States and Municipalities.

According to the estimates, in the current year, Brazil has 191.5 million inhabitants spread among its 27 Federative Units and 5,565 municipalities. São Paulo is the highlight as the most populated Federative Units, with 41.4 million inhabitants, followed by Minas Gerais (20 million) and Rio de Janeiro (16 million). These three Federative Units of the Southeast Region concentrate about 40.4% of the Brazilian population.

São Paulo is the least populated municipality, with 11 million inhabitants, followed by Rio de Janeiro (6.2 million) and Salvador (3 million). Belo Horizonte (2.5 million) was in the fourth position in 2000 and, after 2007, fell to the sixth place, having been surpassed by the Federal District and Fortaleza which have remained in the fourth and fifth positions, respectively, since then. 

Except for the capitals, the most populated Brazilian municipalities are Guarulhos (1.3 milhão), Campinas (1.1 million) and São Gonçalo (992 thousand inhabitants), which have been in leading positions since 2000. Borá (SP) remains as the least populated municipality in the country, with estimated population of 837 inhabitants, 42 more than in 2000.

Among the six Brazilian municipalities which had less than 1,000 inhabitants in 2000, only Borá and Serra da Saudade (with 890 inhabitants) remain in this situation in 2009.

It is worth mentioning that IBGE has improved population estimates since 2008. The current estimates are shown in a table with the estimated population for each of the 5,565 Brazilian municipalities on July 1, 2009. The figures are also published in Brazil’s Federal Register by August 31, every year. After the release of estimates, it will be possible for citizens to submit complaints to IBGE, which will come to a proper conclusion concerning them. By October 31^st IBGE will have sent the estimates to the Brazilian Court of Audit.

Methodology used by IBGE

In order to obtain the latest population results, IBGE has conducted a study using the methodology of census comparability, combined with the Demographic Components Method. It is a demographic tool aimed at obtaining the expected structures by sex and age of populations in censuses, and which uses information about the demographic dynamics of the country in an attempt at coherence among the counts of years 1980, 1991, 1996, 2000 and 2007.  

Based on a historical evaluation of demographic censuses and population counts in Brazil from 1980 to 2007, IBGE has found, for each year, estimates of absolute and relative methods of undercount in these five census operations. Undercount is not an exclusive feature of Brazilian census operations: since the beginning of the first half of the 20^th century, the United Nations, through their representatives for Latin American and the Caribbean (CEPAL) have evaluated the coverage of population censuses of the Latin-American and Caribbean area.

Results point to significant coherence concerning the Demographic Censuses of 1970, 1980, 1991 and 2000. The reference used was the 1980 Census, whose population coverage was evaluated in order to obtain the final result for undercount and its implications, associated to the correction of the starting population figures or not.

In summary, these demographic procedures are used to evaluate and, if it is the case, correct census data for projections and estimates, both in terms of volume and of composition of the population by sex and age. The method consists of reaching coherence between information from censuses and demographic events – births, deaths and migration – so that the results are as close as possible to what is expected according to the demographic dynamics.

In relation to municipal estimates from 2008 on, specifically, there have been adjustments of the population of Federative Units observed in years 2000 and 2007 into the values projected for Brazilian population – as defined after the census comparison. The adjustment factors used in the total population figures for Federative Units, in 2000 and 2007, have been also applied to their municipalities so as to maintain the total figures adjusted for each respective Unit.