The seventh estimate for the production of cereal, legumes and oilseeds¹ points to output of 134.4 million metric tons²  in 2009, with  decrease by 7.9% in relation to the record harvest of 2008 (146.0 million metric tons) and confirmation of the second major national harvest ever obtained. The estimate in July was 0.8% above the June figure. The significant increase compared to last month is mainly due to the positive reevaluations which occurred to 2nd harvest corn in Mato Grosso, Goiás, Paraná and also to reevaluation of the estimates of 3^rd harvest beans, sorghum and of the main winter crops. The production of rice, in 2009, points to positive change of 4.2% in relation to 2008. For soybeans and corn, the estimated production figures indicate decrease by 5.2% and 14.2%, respectively, in this comparison. The area to be harvested (47.2 million hectares), in 2009, points to decrease of 83,946 hectares, in relation to 2008, and of 2,996 hectares, in relation to the area estimated by IBGE in June. The three main crops – soybeans, corn and rice (which account for 81.3% of planted area) present changes of 2.1%, -4.6% and 1.0%, respectively, compared to figures in 2008.

By area, the production estimate for cereal, legumes and oilseeds expected for 2009, compared to the previous harvest is: South Region, 53.6 million metric tons (-12.6%); Central West, 48.1 million metric tons (-5.2%); Southeast, 16.9 million metric tons (-3,8%); Northeast, 12.0 million metric tons (-4.0%) and North, 3.7 million metric tons (-1.8%). Mato Grosso, with 20.4% of the national production, surpasses by 1.4% Paraná (19%), reinforcing the position as the major national grain producer.

Agricultural production in 2009 – comparison between July estimates and the 2008 harvest

Among the forty-one products selected, eighteen had positive change in their production estimate compared to figures in the previous year: 2^nd harvest peanuts (14.5%), rice in husk (4.2%), oats in grain (20.5%), bananas  (2.1%), sugarcane (5.8%), cashew nuts (17.3%), onions (4.8%), rye in grain (3.6%), barley in grain (1,1%), 1^st harvest beans in grain (4.0%), 2^nd harvest beans in grain (9.4%), Guarana (0.5%), jute fiber (9.8%), oranges (0.8%), apples (5.6%), Malva fiber (0,6%), sisal fiber (0.7%) and tomatoes (7.2%).  With negative change: pineapples (-2.2%), herbaceous seed cotton (-25.7%), garlic (-7.1%), 1st harvest peanuts (-3.6%), 1st harvest potatoes (-7.8%), 2nd harvest potatoes (-12.3%), 3rd harvest potatoes (-0.8%), cacao nuts (-1.0%), coffee in grain (-13.5%), coconut (-0.3%), 3rd harvest beans in grain (-10.8%), tobacco in leaf (-2.0%), sunflower in grain (-24,5%), castor beans in segment (-21.2%), cassava (-0.1%), 1^st harvest corn in grain (-15.1%), 2^nd harvest corn in grain (-12.2%), black and white pepper (-1.2%), soybeans in grain (-5.2%), sorghum in grain (-6.8%), wheat in grain (-0.3%), triticale in grain (-3.4%) and grapes (-6.6%).

Area planted with sugarcane increases by 3.2% in 2009

The introduction of new markets for sugarcane and rice derivatives stimulated the increase of areas directed to the planting of these agriculture products which had positive change, when compared to the 2008 harvest, by 3.2% and 1.4%, respectively. The increase of sugarcane plantation has become more common in the last five 5 years, due to the need of an alternative against the high prices of petroleum until 2008. With the fall of these prices and the international world crisis which started in the middle of the second semester of 2008, the investment capacity of companies of this sector was affected. Considering the scarcity of financial resources, several projects have been postponed or halted, thus increasing the expansion of sugarcane crops.

Corn, soybeans and cotton are expected to face main decreases

Corn, in both harvests, soybeans and herbaceous cotton were the crops with major decreases in production, in absolute terms, when compared to production reached in 2008. Considering corn, there was decrease of planted area in 2009 (-4.0%), and that can be seen as a consequence of the big national stocks observed until December m 31, 2008, 118.2% above those on December 31, 2007 (results released by the Survey of Stocks). Low prices at the time of planting and the uncertainty about future demand also contributed to this result.

Yield of soybean crops expected to decrease by 7.1%

In terms of soybeans, planted area was 2.1% bigger than in 2008, but the high prices of production inputs at the time of planting caused producers to invest less in technology. Together with irregular climactic conditions, this led to decrease by 7.1% in the average yield of soybean crops, which changed from 2,817 kg/ha,  obtained in the  2008 harvest, to 2,618 kg/ha, in the current 2009 estimate.

Credit crisis affected future contracts of cotton crops, which had its planting area reduced by 21.9% when compared to 2008. It is worth mentioning that the high cost of crop production and uneven rainfall also affected corn and cotton crops in 2009, leading to decline of the average yield of these crops in relation to 2008, by respectively -10.1% and -5.0%.

Agricultural Production 2009 – July and June estimates compared

In the Systematic survey of Agricultural Production of July, we highlight changes in the production estimates of eight items, in relation to June: herbaceous seed cotton (-1.8%), oats in grain (7.7%), barley in grain (3.6%), 3^rd harvest beans in grain (2.6%), 2^nd harvest corn in grain (5.0%), sorghum in grain (4.9%), wheat in grain (2.3%) and triticale in grain (6.2%).

 HERBACEOUS COTTON (seed) – For cotton, in this seventh survey of 2009, the expected production is 2.9 million metric tons, with reduction by 1.8%, compared to the figure estimated in June.  This decrease reflects, mainly, the negative reevaluations of 4.4% of the areas directed to harvest in Mato Grosso, the major national producer (47.7% of participation), especially in the municipalities of Campo Verde and Dom Aquino.  In this state, there was increase of 1.0% in the average yield expected, and it changed from 3,900 kg/ha, in June, to 3,939 kg/ha, in this survey. This crop benefited from the good climactic conditions during its cycle, although green manure was carried out at minimum required levels.

BEANS (in grain) – The national production of beans, considering the three harvests of this product, is evaluated as 3,612,847 metric tons, 0.1% below the June estimate and is distributed as follows: 1,707,810 metric tons, in the 1^st harvest (47.3% of the total), 1,531,514 metric tons in the 2^nd harvest (42.4% of the total) and 373,523 metric tons in the 3^rd harvest (10.3% of the total). Compared to the June survey, production changes of the three harvests were, respectively, 0.1%, -0.9% and 2.6%. For 3^rd harvest beans, the positive change in this survey is a consequence of the gain by 9.6% in production, observed in the state of Goiás, due to the confirmation of additional planting in the area of Cristalina, with 12,000 new hectares in this survey. The status of beans is not yet defined, since this planting period can last until August.

CORN (in grain) – The national production of corn (grain) in 2009, for both harvests, amounts to 50,649,571 metric tons, indicating, this month, increase of 1.8% over the June estimate and it is distributed as follows: 33,920,559 metric tons in the first harvest (67.0% of the total) and 16,729,012 metric tons in the second harvest (33.0% of the total), which had production increment of 0.2% and 5.%, respectively, compared to previous evaluation. For 2^nd harvest beans, which presents the major changes, absolute gains occurred in the states of Mato Grosso (420,122 t), Goiás (226,040 t) and Paraná (175,201 t), mainly due to the positive evaluation of average yield.

SORGHUM (in grain) – Planted after the summer crops, sorghum presents, in this July evaluation, increase by  4.9% in production, which was estimated as 1,831,264 metric tons. The absolute increment to production, compared to the June estimate, is 39,772 t, in Mato Grosso, 35,983 t, in Goiás, and 13,940 t, in Minas Gerais.  Sorghum is considered an alternative product for crop rotation, versus corn, being a less risky option when the harvest of summer crops is extended.

WINTER CEREALS (in grain) – For winter crops, whose planting is more common in southern states, there was production increase, at national level, for oats (7.7%), barley (3.6%), wheat (2.3%) and triticale (6.2%).  Considering wheat, the main crop of this planting period, production of 5.9 million metric tons is expected, being 2.3% above the June figure. This increase can be seen as a consequence of new evaluations in the states of Paraná, the major wheat producer (57.5% of the national production), which led to increase of planted area by 2.5% and of production by 3.6%.  The good climate conditions observed until the beginning of the survey favored the development of crops. Pests such as whitefly and caterpillars and diseases such as rust and leaf spot, occurred but were controlled by producers, not affecting significantly production prospects until the present evaluation.

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1 Cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, oats, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum, wheat and triticale

2 Due to the needs of users of crop data, surveys relative to Cereals, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (Conab), as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October 2007.