Compared to the previous month, the seasonally adjusted rate (0.2%) represented the sixth consecutive increase in 2009, confirming the maintenance of industrial production. So, from January to June this year, industrial production accumulated increase of 7.9%.

Also considering the seasonally adjusted series, the second quarter of 2009 had increase of 3.4% over the first one, with inversion of the two quarter- sequence of negative rates for this type of comparison.

However, compared to the same periods in 2008, when the subsector was on an upward trend, results remain negative: -10.9% compared to June last year and -13.4% accumulated in the first semester of 2009, the lowest in the time series which started in 1975. Compared to equivalent quarters in the previous year, total production changed from -14.6% in the period January-March to -12.3% in the following quarter. The annualized rate, the indicator accumulated in the last 12 months (-6.5%), caused faster decrease compared to the May figure (-5.0%).

In relation to May, 13 of the 27 industrial subsectors had increase

From May to June, 13 of the 27 subsectors surveyed had increase. Among these, the most significant performance was that of mining and quarrying industry (5.3%), followed by automotive vehicles (2.6%), other chemical products (2.9%) and metallurgy (2.0%). The main negative contributions came from food products (-5.4%), pharmaceutical articles (4.9%) and other transportation equipment (-4.4%).

In the same comparison, there was expansion in three of the four categories of use, among which the most significant one was capital goods (2.1%), which had its third consecutive positive rates, having accumulated increase of 5.5% between March and June. There was also increase in intermediate goods (0.7%) and durable consumer goods (0.4%), which have remained with positive indexes in 2009, accumulating increases of 7.8% and 65.5%, respectively. Semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods faced decrease of 2.6% in production, compared to May, interrupting a sequence of four months with positive rates, in a period when there was accumulated increase of 4.8%.

The performance of June confirmed the increase of industrial activity, with rise of the quarterly moving average by 0.9%, the fourth consecutive positive rate in this comparison. By category of use, the highlight was capital goods, which, with the third consecutive increase in relation to the previous month, overcame seven months with decrease of the quarterly moving average and rose 1.8% between May and June. Durable consumer goods (2.2%) and intermediate goods (1.1%) remained on an upward trend, whereas the category of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods interrupted a sequence of three positive rates and faced decrease (0.5%) between May and June.

Compared to June 2008, 22 of the 27 subsectors reduced production 

In relation to June 2008, industrial production decreased 10.9%, keeping a sequence of eight months with negative rates. This result can be seen as a consequence of the rising comparison basis, since production had grown throughout all the first semester of 2008. 

Most of (22) the 27 subsectors surveyed had negative indexes, and automotive vehicles (-18.9%) had the most significant result, being followed by machinery and equipment (-27.4%), metallurgy (-22.8%) and electronic, computer and communication material and equipment (-34.5%). Among the activities which faced increase compared to June 2008, pharmaceutical industry (12.7%) was the only one accounting for relevant contributions to the formation of the overall rate.

All the four categories of use remained on a downward trend in this comparison. The subsector of capital goods had the most negative rate (-24.4%), affected by the performance of all its subsectors, being the highlight capital goods for transportation (-14.2%), for mixed use (-21.6%) and for industrial use (-34.6%).

In durable consumer goods (-12.7%), the most relevant negative contributions acme from automobiles   (-8.7%), mobile telephones (-27.0%) and home appliances (-8.2%), especially the ones which belong to the “brown type”¹ (-38.8%), once those of the “white type””² had increase of 25.4%.

Semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-4.0%) had a negative performance in all their subsectors, being the main highlight the positive impact from the group of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-12.5%), followed by food products and beverages elaborated for domestic consumption (-2.8%) and fuels (-8.4%).

After two consecutive decreases, production grows by 3.4% in relation to the 1^st quarter

In the second quarter of the year (seasonally adjusted series), industrial production increased 3.4% compared to the first one, with reversal of the negative rates observed in the two previous quarters (9.5% in the fourth quarter of 2008 and -7.8% in the firs quarter of 2009). This change was mainly influenced by durable consumer goods, with accumulated increase of 12.0% in the first two quarters (1.6% in the first and 10.3% in the second one, mainly affected by fiscal incentive, credit offers and the maintenance of salaries.

It is also worth mentioning the positive results, in the second quarter, of intermediate goods (3.4%) and of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (1.5%), which increased once more after two quarters with falling rates.

The production of capital goods (-2.1%) was the only type to remain negative, but with significant improvement compared to the result of the first semester (-18.5%).

Compared to the first semester of 2008, industry has had worst performance since 1975

In relation to the second quarter of 2008, the level of industrial production in the period April-June 2009 decreased 12.3%, casing decrease, however, of the production rhythm compared to the first quarter (-14.6%). This change was influenced by durable consumer goods, which changed from -22.5% in the first quarter to -16.1% in the second, and intermediate goods (from -18.1% to -13.5%). In the second quarter of 2009, the subsector of capital goods (-25.5%) faced reduction significantly above average, whereas the decrease was more moderate for semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-3.3%).

Compared to the first semester last year, industrial production faced, from January to June, decrease of  13.4%, the most negative performance since the beginning of the time series of the Monthly survey of Industry (1975), with decrease in 24 of the 27 subsectors surveyed. 

The production of automotive vehicles (-23.6%) accounted for the main negative contribution, followed by machinery and equipment (-29.0%), metallurgy (-27.8%), electronic material and communication equipment (-40.1%) and other chemical products (-14.4%). The three subsectors which had increase in the first semester were pharmaceutical articles (10.3%), other transportation equipment (14.0%) and beverages (5.2%). 

In this comparison, the four categories of use faced decrease: capital goods (-23.0%) had the biggest decrease, followed by durable consumer goods (-19.1%) and intermediate goods (-15.8%), whereas for semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-3.1%) there was less significant reduction.

_________________________________________________

1 Television sets, sound equipment and DVD players.

2 Refrigerators and freezers; stoves, washing machines and clothes dryers.