The national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is expected to be 133.3 million metric tons in 2009, 8.7% below the figure obtained in 2008 (146.0 million metric tons¹) and 1.2% below the figure relative to May (135.0 million metric tons). This is shown in the sixth estimate of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), of June. Decrease in comparison with the result of last month is a consequence of the loss of 2^nd harvest corn in Paraná and reevaluations n the estimates of rice, beans and soybeans.

The three main crops: soybeans, corn and rice, which account for 81.5% of the planted area, changed by+2.1%, -4.3% and +1.4%, respectively, compared to the previous year. As for production, rice was the only one to have positive change (+ 4.3%). Considering soybeans and corn, the prospect is to have production retraction by 5.1% and 15.7%, respectively.

The area to be harvested, 7.2 million hectares, presents decreases in absolute terms, both in relation to 2008 and to the previous month (May), of 83,946 hectares and 61,554 hectares, respectively.

The amount expected for 2009 is distributed as follows: South Region, 53.2 million metric tons (-13.3%); Central West, 47.4 million metric tons (-6.7%); Southeast Regions, 16.9 million metric tons (-3.9%); Northeast, 12.1 million metric tons (-2.8%) and North, 3.7 million metric tons (-1.7%). The picture bellow shows that the state of Mato Grosso surpasses Paraná by 1.5 percentage points, and has remained as the main national producer of grains.

Changes in the estimates of six products

The LSPA of June highlights the changes in the estimates of six products, compared to results in May: wheat in grain (+0.3%), sugarcane (+0.2%), total corn in grain (-2.2%), rice in husk (-1.4%), total beans in grain (-0.7%) and soybeans in grain (-0.6%).

Wheat (in grain)

The estimated production of wheat is 5.7 million metric tons (+0.3%). In the south of Paraná and in Rio Grande do Sul, planting has not been totally finished, and climate conditions in the beginning of this cycle era not favorable to crops.

Sugarcane

The estimate of sugarcane harvest amounts to 691.8 million metric tons (+0.2%), with increase of 0.4% in the area to be harvested. Expansion results from the interest for sugarcane derivatives, especially ethanol and sugar – the latter being the most useful at the moment, due to the decrease of supply in the international market.

Total corn (in grain)

Production, in both harvests, is expected to amount to 49.8 million metric tons (-2.2%). The first harvest, which amounts to 33.8 million metric tons, surpasses by 1.0% the production estimate from May  – with gain resulting from the reevaluation of final data in the South Regions, where Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul had production increase of +2.2% and +5.2%, respectively.

The second harvest estimate is 15.9 million metric tons, which presents significant reduction (-8.4%) compared to the May estimate. Paraná, the second main national producer of this harvest, was the main responsible for this decrease, with loss of -20.6% in production, as a consequence of the negative reevaluation of average yield (-19.9%).

Rice in husk

The expected production of rice is 12.6 million metric tons (-1.4%), after reevaluations in the data relative to the Northeast, South and Central West Regions. In the Northeast, the excess of rain caused reduction of area (-1.9%) and average yield (-6.4%), now estimated as 701,742 ha and 1,583 kg/ha. In the other two regions, the product was in the end of the harvesting period.

Total beans in grain

The national production of beans, considering the three harvests of this product, is expected to amount to 3,614,985 metric tons (-0.7%) and is distributed as follows: 1,705,718 metric tons in the first harvest (47.2%), 1,545,192 metric tons in the second harvest and (42.7%) and 364,075 metric tons in the third harvest (10.1%). Compared to may, this represents changes by -2.9%, 1.5% and 0.6%, respectively.

The decrease in the first harvest reflects loss in Maranhão (-12.0%), Piauí (-7.1%), Ceará (-10.1%) and Pernambuco (-31.0%). In the second harvest, the increase is due to reevaluations in the results of most producers in the Northeast, mainly Pernambuco (+141.5%). The positive change of the third harvest  results from the gain of 2.3% in production observed in Goiás, as a result of the revaluation of its average yield which, compared to the previous month, increased by 22.0%.

Soybeans in grain

The production of soybeans (grain), the main summer crop, is expected to be 56.8 million metric tons (-0.6%). The decrease is mainly a consequence of reevaluations in the Central West Region. Mato Grosso do Sul had production decrease of -4,8% , as a consequence of the fall of average yield (-5.0%).

June estimate in relation to the 2008 harvest is lower for 14 products

Among the 25 products selected, 14 had negative changes: herbaceous seed cotton (-24.3%), castor beans (-19.8%), 2nd harvest corn in grain (-16.4%), 1st harvest corn in grain (-15.3%), coffee in grain (-13.5%), 3rd harvest milk in grain (-13.0%), sorghum in grain (-11.2%), 2^nd harvest potatoes (-9.4%), triticale in grain (-9.1%), 1^st harvest potatoes (-7.1%), soybeans in grain (-5.1%), first harvest peanuts in grain (-3.6%), wheat in grain (-2.6%) and barley in grain (-2.4%). The 11 items with positive change are: 2^nd harvest peanuts in husk (14.2%), oats in grain (11.9%), 2nd harvest beans in grain (10.4%), sugarcane (6,6%), onions (4.9%), 3^rd harvest potatoes (4.4%), rice in husk (4.3%), 1^st harvest beans (3.9%), cacao nuts (1.3%), cassava (0.9%) and oranges (0.7%).

The production of sugar cane is expected to be 691,790,861 metric tons, with hike of 6.6% compared to the result in 2008. The increment occurs mainly due to the increase (+6.0%) of the area to be harvested. At the moment, total planted area is 9,694,448 hectares. 

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¹ Due to the needs of users of crop data, surveys relative to Cereal, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (Conab), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October 2007.