In May this year, the seasonally adjusted industrial output increased 1.3% over the previous month figure.  It was the fifth consecutive positive result in this comparison, leading to increase of 7.8% in the first five months of 2009. Over May 2008, there was decrease of 11.3%, with negative rates recorded for seven months in a row. The cumulative index, compared to that of 2008, shows that the industrial activity decelerated from -14.6% in April to -13.9% in May. The cumulative index relative to the last 12 months (-5.1%) was 1.2 percentage points below that of April (-3.9%) and reached its lowest position since the beginning of the time series (in 1991).  

Compared to April figures, all categories of use recorded output increase

The acceleration of industrial production between April and May reached 20 of the 27 seasonally adjusted activities and all the four categories of use.

Among the activities, the main results came from pharmaceuticals (9.7%), motor vehicles (2.0%), metallurgy (3.1%), office machinery and computer equipment (6.6%), other transportation equipment (3.3%) and electrical machinery and apparatus (3.2%). Among the negative impacts, it is worth mentioning rubber and plastic (-2.7%), metal products (-3.0%) and tobacco (-8.4%) which, in April, had grown by 6.8%, 6.6% and 12.8%, respectively.

In terms of categories of use, durable consumer goods accounted for the most significant deceleration (3.8%) from April to May, followed by semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (1.3%) and intermediate goods (1.2%).  Capital goods (0.7%) recorded increases below the average (1.3%). 

The positive behavior of industrial activity in May confirmed the upward trend of the quarterly moving average, which started in May. In the industry overall, the increment observed between April and May was 1.1%. Durable consumer goods recorded the biggest increment (2.7%), followed by intermediate goods (1.0%) and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (0.9%). The sector of capital goods recorded the seventh consecutive rate (-0.7%), but with more deceleration than in previous months.

Only five activities present positive results in the comparison with May 2008

Over May 2008, the retraction of 11.3% faced by industry reflected the negative behavior of 22 of the 27 activities surveyed.  All the categories of use recorded decrease in this comparison.

Among the activities, the main impacts came, in order of importance, from machinery and equipment (-28.0%), automotive vehicles (-17.6%), metallurgy (-24.5%) and electronic material and communication equipment (-34.4%).  Considering the five growing activities, pharmaceuticals (15.7%) and beverages (6.2%) accounted for the main contributions to the overall index.

Among the categories of use, capital goods recorded the most significant decrease (-22.8%). There were declines in all the groups, the main highlights being: capital goods for mixed use (-26.4%), mainly due to mobile telephony equipment and computer products; capital goods for industrial use (-34.1%); for transportation (-8.6%); for construction (-60.5%); and for electricity (-30.6%).  

The production of durable goods was 13.7% below the May 2008 figure, being affected by the reduced production of cars (-8.4%) and household appliances (-11.1%), especially the "brown products" (1) (-34.0%), since "white goods" (2) had increased 0.9% in this comparison - what has not occurred since September 2008. It is worth mentioning the negative contribution of mobile telephones (-29.3%).

Intermediate goods recorded decrease of 13.8%, due to several of its subsectors, the main highlights being: products associated to the activities of metallurgy (-24.5%), mining and quarrying industry (-14.2%), other chemical products (-12.3%), motor vehicles (-24.2%) and rubber and plastic (-20.3%).  Other highlights are the negative indexes of inputs for civil construction (-10.1%) and packages (-7.5%).  The only positive contribution came from the items associated to the subsector of food products (3.7%), affected to a great extent by the increased output of crystallized sugar.   

The fall of 1.8% of the sector of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods also reflected the negative behavior of many subsectors, mainly of semi-durable goods (-12.6%) and food products and beverages for domestic consumption (-2.4%). The only positive contribution came from other non-durable goods (2.1%), which accounts, to a great extent, to the production of medicines.

Industrial output from January to May faces overall decrease versus 2008 figures

The cumulative index of industrial output in the period January-May 2009, versus that of the equivalent period of 2008, decreased 13.9%. The overall decrease reached 24 of the 27 activities surveyed and all the categories of use.  

Motor vehicles (-24.7%) remains as the most significant negative contribution, followed by machinery and equipment (-29.2%), metallurgy (-28.9%) and electronic material and communication equipment (-41.2%). The sectors which recorded positive impacts in the formation of the overall index were other transportation equipment (16.7%), pharmaceuticals (10.0%) and beverages (5.5%).

The cumulative index of 2009 shows decrease in 63 of the 76 industrial subsectors surveyed.  Among these, it is worth mentioning the results of the segments more closely related to exports:  extraction of iron ore (-35.4%); pig iron, iron alloys and semi-finished iron goods (-40.7%), slaughter of poultry and preparation of meat (-4.6%) and slaughter of cattle and hogs and pigs and preparation of meat (-4.6%).  There are also negative indexes in some subsectors of capital goods, such as machinery and equipment for industrial and commercial use (-31.1%), tractors and machines and agricultural equipment (-33.3%) and machinery and equipment for mineral extraction and construction (-61.0%).

The cumulative index of 2009 shows decrease in 63 of the 76 industrial subsectors surveyed. Among these, it is worth mentioning the results of the segments more closely related to exports: extraction of iron ore (-35.4%); pig iron, iron alloys and semi-finished iron goods (-40.7%), slaughter of poultry and preparation of meat (-4.6%) and slaughter of cattle and hogs and pigs and preparation of meat (-4.6%).  There are also negative indexes in some subsectors of capital goods, such as machinery and equipment for industrial and commercial use (-31.1%), tractors and agricultural machines and equipment (-33.3%) and machinery and equipment for mineral extraction and construction (-61.0%).

The analysis of the cumulative index by category of use, in the year, shows that capital goods (-22.7%) recorded the main negative rate, followed by durable consumer goods (-20.5%) and intermediate goods (-16.7%), all of them with losses above the national average (-13.9%).  In the category of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, the change was -2.8%.

In summary, the results of industrial output in May reinforce the signs of recovery of industrial production. Considering the quarterly moving average index, general industry recorded cumulative increase of 4.2% from February to May this year. The balance was positive in this period for durable consumer goods (22.7%), intermediate goods (3.7%) and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (3.2%).  The exception was capital goods, which recorded decrease of 5.9%. This performance suggests that the recovery taken place in 2009 is related to sectors of internal demand, whereas the producers of capital goods and of goods for exports remain accounting for negative contributions.

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^{1 Televison sets, sound systems and DVDs.
2 Refrigerators and freezers; stoves; washing machines and dryers.}