In April 2009, the seasonally adjusted industrial production increased 1.1% compared to March, the fourth positive rate in the year. In relation to April 2008, the sector decreased 14.8% and, in the first four quarters of the year, reduction was 14.7%. The indicator accumulated in the last 12 months, on a downward trend since October, had a rate of -3.9% in April, its lowest result since June 1996 (-4.0%).  

The increase of industrial activity in April reached 16 of the 27 subsectors surveyed. Among these, the most significant performance to the overall result was that of automotive vehicles (3.3%), which, after readjustment of stocks in the end of last year, accumulated 61.1% compared to December 2008, being mainly influenced by the bigger production of cars. It is also worth mentioning metallurgy (5.1%), rubber and plastic (6.7%), electric machines, appliances and equipment (8.3%), metal products (6.8%) and electronic material and communication equipment (5.2%). On the other hand, editing and printing (-3.1%), optical, medical and hospital equipment (-13.0%) and petroleum refining and alcohol production (-1.7%) were the main negative highlights. 

Also in comparison with the previous month, all the categories of use had positive indexes. The highest rates were those of the subsectors durable consumer goods (2.7%) and capital goods (2.6%). The subsector of durable consumer goods, with the fourth positive rate in this comparison, has already accumulated 57.8% of increase, compared to the 48.7% observed in the last three months of 2008. Capital goods, which once again presented increase in relation to the previous month, did not make up for the deceleration observed in February and March, when there was accumulated decrease of 11.2%. The performance of the subsector of intermediate goods (1.1%) was above the average of industry, whereas semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods had almost the same level as in the previous month (0.3%).

Quarterly moving average remained positive 

 Considering the April result, the quarterly moving average indicator remained positive after having increased by 1.3% compared to the March figure, almost repeating the same performance as in the previous month (1.6%). The analysis by categories of use shows that  durable consumer goods (5.0%), intermediate goods and (1.0%) and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (1.3%) had increase, whereas the subsector of capital goods (-3.1%) remained on a downward trend.

Industry fell 14.8% in relation to the same month in the previous year

In relation to April 2008, the industrial sector fell 14.8%, and practically repeated the average obtained in the first quarter of the year (-14.6%). Besides the high comparison basis, it is worth mentioning the influence of the bigger number of business days in April 2009 (20) compared to April 2008 (21). Most (24) of the twenty-seven subsectors surveyed had negative indexes in this comparison, coming from automotive vehicles (-24.8%) and machinery and equipment (-32.3%), the main contributions to the formation of the overall rate, and both influenced by the decrease of almost 80% in the products surveyed in their respective subsectors.

Negative results also occurred in the subsectors of metallurgy (-27.9%), due to the decrease of steel ingots, blocks, billets and plates; and electronic material and communication equipment (-44.0%), mainly affected by mobile telephones. Among the three activities which had increase in relation to April 2008, the most significant contribution came from beverages (4.8%), affected by the increasing production of beer, draft beer and soft drinks.  

Also compared to April 2008, the indexes were negative for all categories of use, being the highlights capital goods (-29.3%), which, after presenting the biggest decrease since March 1996 (-31.75), had more significant rhythm of decrease than general industry (-14.8%). This result was a consequence of the negative indexes in all the subsectors, being the highlight capital goods for mixed use (-33.9%), due to the reduction of investments in the fields of mobile telephony and computer science, and capital goods for transportation (-15.4%), which followed the production decrease of trucks and tractors and the lower rhythm of increase of airplanes. It is worth mentioning that this is the subgroup which contributed most to the category of capital goods and, until March, it accumulated increase of 1.5%. The performance of capital goods for industrial use (-36.9%) had, in April, its lowest rate in the time series. The subsector of durable consumer goods (-21.6%), which also had decrease above the average of industry (-14.8%), had the seventh negative result in this type of comparison, with the main relevant negative contributions coming from the items cars (-15.6%), electronic appliances (-16.8%) and mobile telephones and (-44.9%).

In the comparison April 2009/April 2008, the performance of intermediate goods was 15.5% lower, being negatively affected by the results of several of its subsectors, mainly products related to metallurgy (-27.9%), automotive vehicles (-33.1%), mining and quarrying industry (-11.6%), rubber and plastic (-21.2%) and other chemical products (-10.0%), due to production decrease in steel ingots, blocks, billets and plates and steel laminated items; car pieces and accessories; iron ore; tires and plastic accessories for cars; and herbicides for agricultural use.

It is worth mentioning the negative indexes observed in inputs for construction (-11.6%) and packages (-9.6%). The only positive influence came from items associated to the food products subsector (9.4%), affected by the increase of production of crystallized sugar. The subsector of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods decreased 4.2%, a result which was observed in all the subsectors, except fuels (4.9%), due to the increase of alcohol production. The main negative contribution came from the subsector of semi-durable goods (-17.3%), followed by other non-durable goods (-3.6%) and other non-durable goods (-3.6%) and food products and beverages for domestic consumption (-2.8%), being the highlights, respectively, the items footwear and leather articles; newspapers and wine.

Industrial activity fell 14.7% in comparison with the same four-month period in 2008

The decrease of 14.7% in the index accumulated in Jan-Apr, versus that of the same period of 2008 is the highest in the time series for this type of comparison, and reached 24 subsectors, the four categories of use and 63 of the 76 industrial areas. In the analysis by activity, the main contribution came from automotive vehicles (-26.6%), being worth mentioning the indexes relative to machinery and equipment (-29.3%), metallurgy (-30.0%), electronic material and communication equipment (-43.1%) and other chemical products (-18.3%).

The analysis of the indicator accumulated in the first four months of the year, considering the indexes by categories of use, showed that capital goods (-22.6%) and durable consumer goods  (-22.2%) had the main decreases, followed by intermediate goods (-17.5%), all of them with results below the national average (-14.7%). The subsector of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-3.2%), which is more protected from the effects of the world crisis, faced more moderate decrease.

Indicator accumulated in the last 12 months had rate of -3.9% in April

The annualized rate, measured by the indicator accumulated in the last 12 months, decreased 2.0 percentage points from March (1.9%) to April (-3.9%). In relation to the beginning of this process of decrease, which started last October, this indicator has lost 9.9 percentage points. In this same period, categories of use had the following performance: capital goods (from 19.0%, in October 2008, to 0.2% in April 2009), durable consumer goods (from 4,.% to  -6.0%), intermediate goods (from 10.7% to -8.5%) and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (from 1.5% to -0.4%).

In summary, industrial activity has remained positive in April, compared to the previous month, having accumulated increase of 6.2% of increase since the beginning of 2009, and also far from the accumulated increase observed in the last three months of 2008 (-20.0%). In other comparisons was observed a general profile of decrease among the activities, subsectors and categories of use. In the analysis by quarter, there was deceleration since the 2^nd four-month group of 2008, reaching decrease of 14.7% in the first four months of 2009, significantly above that of the third four-month  group of 2008 (-2.4%), both compared to the same period as in the previous year. In terms of categories of use, intermediate goods and durable consumer goods, there was similar behavior, whereas among capital goods and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, there were negative rates in the first four months of 2009.