The third estimate for national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (grains) for 2009 points to na output of about 136.4 million metric tons, 6.5% below that of 2008 (145.9 million metric tons)¹, according to IBGE’s  Systematic survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA).  Planted are is expected to reach, this year, 47.1 million hectares, being 0.1% smaller than in the previous year. The three main grain crops, soybeans, corn and rice, which account for 81.3% of the area planted in Brazil, present, in terms of this indicator, changes of +1.7%, -4.3% and +2.4%, respectively, compared to figures in 2008. In terms of production, among the three crops, only rice had positive change, of 4.7%. production decrease is estimated for soybeans and corn, of  2.3% and 12.6%, respectively. 

The volume of cereal, legumes and oilseeds expected for 2009 is distributed as follows, by Major Region: South, 55.8 million metric tons (-8.8% compared to 2008); Central West, 47.0 million metric tons (-7.5%); Southeast, 16.8 million metric tons (-4.3%); Northeast, 12.9 million metric tons (3.8%); and North, 3.8 million metric tons (0.7%). 

The picture below shows that Mato Grosso may overcome Paraná in 2009, featuring, au to this present survey, as the major national grain producer.

Compared to February, five products are expected to have production increase

In the March edition of LSPA, the highlights were changes in the production estimates of six products, compared to February. Five of them are expected to have harvest increase: rice in husk (+0.9%), coffee (grain) (+1.4%), total beans (grain) (+0.4%), total corn (grain) (+0.6%) and soybeans (grain) (+1.5%).

For herbaceous cotton (seed), however, reduction is estimated (-4.0%), with an expected production of 3.2 million metric tons and decrease in all the Regions, but the South (11.2%). In the Central West Region, there was more reduction in the estimate (-6.2%),  since in Mato Grosso, the main producer with 45.9% of national participation, the expected planting did not occur, resulting in a reevaluation of planted area by -8.7% and, in production, by -8.6%.

For rice, the production expected in this third survey of 2009 is 12.7 million metric tons (0.9% more than in February). The little gain is a result of reevaluations in the areas, especially in the Northeast and Central West Region. In Santa Catarina, after the problems faced after floods in 2008, crops had good recovery.

According to the March survey, the national harvest of coffee estimated for 2009 is 2,392,975 t or 39.9 million 60-million sacks, versus 2,360,383 t or 39.3 million of sacks expected for February (+1.4%). The total area planted with this crop is 2,406,466 ha, 0.5% above the percentage observed in the previous year. The estimated average yield is 1,107 kg/ha (18.45 sacks/hectare), due to the excellent weather conditions during the development of grains, with increase of 1.4% in relation to the average yield estimated previously.

The estimated national production of beans, considering the three harvests of this product, is 3,799,427 t, 0.4% above that of the February survey. In terms of the 1^st and 2^nd harvests, the changes of, respectively, +4.1% and -4.1%, compared to February, resulted mainly from changes in the data from Pernambuco, which led to the adaptation of figures to fit the agricultural calendar of this product.

The production estimate of corn (grain) for 2009, for both harvests, amounts to 51.6 million tons, 0.6% above that of February. In terms of 1^st harvest, the output is expected to reach 34.5 million tons (+2.6%, compared to the previous estimate). In the South Region, the main producer, with 41.9% of the national harvest, the gain of 3.1% in production is due, mainly, to the better average yield resulting from the occurrence of rain. For the Central West (13.0% of the national production), the gain of 5.4% in relation to the February estimate refers to a reevaluation in Goiás, where there were increases of 3.5% in the area to be harvested and of 5.0% in the expected average yield. The production of 2^nd harvest corn is expected to reach 17.0 million tons, 3.2% less than expected for February, basically due to new data from Mato Grosso do Sul and  Goiás, where planted area presents decreases of 12.4% and 34.7%, respectively. It is also a consequence of delay in the harvesting of soybeans and of the high prices charged for corn.

The expected production of soybeans in 2009 is 58.5 million metric tons, 1.5% higher than in February. This increment reflects mainly the reevaluation of the average yield of crops in Rio Grande do Sul, where there was increase of 10.7% in average yield.

Output of 9 of the 25 products investigated is expected to increase in relation to 2008

Among the 25 products selected, 9 had positive change in the production estimate in relation to 2008: 2nd harvest peanuts in husk (16.7%), rice in husk (4.7%), cacao nuts (3.1%), sugarcane (4.0%), onions (5.9%), 1^st harvest beans (17.4%), 2^nd harvest beans (5.8%), oranges (0.6%) and cassava (3.8%). With negative change are herbaceous cotton (seed) (-20.0%), 1st harvest peanuts in husk (-5.4%), oats (-2.1%), 1st harvest potatoes (-6.5%), 2^nd harvest potatoes (-5.9%), 3^rd harvest potatoes (-1.7%), coffee (-14.3%), barley (-13.9%), 3^rd harvest beans (-6.9%), castor beans in segment (-25.0%), 1^st harvest corn (-13.5%), 2^nd harvest corn (-10.6%), soybeans (-2.3%), sorghum (-9.6%), wheat (-13.5%) and triticale (-16.8%).

The main summer crops, especially soybeans, corn and rice, at still being harvested. Coming surveys will also bring the monitoring of summer crops and of the development of the second and third harvests of some products, besides winter crops which, due to the agricultural calendar, present estimates still based on projections.

The national harvest of coffee to be harvested in 2009 was estimated, in March, at 2,392,975 t or 39.9 million 60 kg sacks, versus 2,790,853 t or 46.5 million sacks harvested in 2008 – decrease of 14.3%. The total area planted with this crop is 2,406,466 ha, and the area to be harvested is 2,162,189 ha. The estimated national average yield is 1,107 kg/ha (18.4 sacks/hectare), representing decrease of 12.1% compared to last year, a characteristic of a biennial crop in a low production cycle.  

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¹The surveys relative to cereal, legumes and  oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture(Conab), as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October 2007.