Between December / 2008 and January / 2009, the indexes by areas of industrial production seasonally adjusted increased in 8 among 14 surveyed areas, standing out Paraná (6.8%), Pernambuco (6.4%), Santa Catarina (5.0%) and Rio Grande do Sul (3.6%), where the growth was above the national average (2.3%).  The other areas with positive rates in this comparison were São Paulo (2.2%), Minas Gerais (2.1%), Northeast Region (2.0%) and Pará (1.1%).  Among the areas which reduced the production stood out, with the most pronounced decreases, Amazonas (-5.5%) and Espírito Santo (-4.6%).

In the comparison January 09/ January 08, however, the regional indexes registered a generalized decrease, showing the magnitude of the decrease in the national industrial activity – for the total of the country, a decrease of 17.2% in this comparison was recorded.  Among the areas with the most pronounced negative changes were Espírito Santo (-33.2%), Minas Gerais (-28.9%), Amazonas (-23.1%), Rio Grande do Sul (-20.3%) and São Paulo (-18.0%).  Also with negative results, although above the national average, were Ceará (-5.3%), Goiás (-7.3%), Pará (-7.5%), Pernambuco (-7.5%), Paraná (-8.4%), Northeast Region (-10.7%), Santa Catarina (-11.6%), Rio de Janeiro (-13.0%) and Bahia (-16.8%). 

All the results by areas for the first month of 2009 were considerably below the indexes for Q4, 2008, both compared to the same period of the previous year.  The most significant deceleration was in Amazonas, where the rate changed from -4.6% in Q4, 2008 to -23.1% in January, Minas Gerais (from -12.9% to -28.9%) and Espírito Santo (from -18.6% to -33.2%).

The signals of deceleration were also evident in the index accumulated in the last 12 months, which also showed loss of decrease of rhythm between September / 2008 and January of this year in all the surveyed areas, especially Espírito Santo (from 14.1% to 1.7%), Minas Gerais (from 7.2% to -1.6%), Amazonas (from 8.3% to 0.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (from 6.1% to 0.1%) and São Paulo (from 8.8% to 2.8%).

AMAZONAS
In January, the industrial sector of Amazonas decreased by 5.5% compared to the previous month ¹  , after growing by 1.3% between November and December.  The quarterly moving average brought the fourth negative rate (-4.3%), accumulating decrease of 11.0% between October and January.

In relation to January 2008, the reduction was of 23.1%, third consecutive decrease in the comparison with the same month of the previous year and the lowest rate of the time series which began in 2002.  The negative result may be explained by the decreases in 8 among 11 sectors surveyed, especially other transportation equipment (-62.5%), where collective vacations were determinant for the reduction in the manufacturing of motorcycles and its parts and accessories; and electronic material and communication equipment (-33.3%), where stood out the decreases of mobile telephones and radios.  The main positive results came from food products and beverages (13.8%) and machines and equipment (2.5%).

The monthly index of January (-23.1%) was considerably below the one for Q4, 2008 (-4.6%). This result was verified in seven segments, and was more intense in other transportation equipment (from -5.0% to -62.5%); and electronic material and communication equipment (from -9.8% to -33.3%).

The index accumulated in the last 12 months, in a downward trend since September of the previous year (8.3%), reached in January a rate of 0.7%, its lowest result since September 2007 (0.5%).

PARÁ

The industry of Pará increased by 1.1% in January, in the comparison with December 2008, after decreasing for two months, and in this period accumulated a decrease of 11.3%.  The quarterly moving average decreased by 3.7% between January and December. This result emphasized the downward trend recorded since November 2008 and summed a loss of 7.9% in this period.

Compared to January 2008, the decrease of 7.5% was the second consecutive in this comparison and the lowest rate of the series, which began in 2002.  The result is a consequence of the decreases in four among six activities surveyed, mainly the extractive sector (-19.5%) and wood (-51.5%).  The main positive result came from basic metallurgy (29.8%).

The monthly rate of January (-7.5%) was considerably below the index of Q4, 2008 (1.6%).  This result occurred in four activities, and it was more intense in mineral extraction, which changed from -3.9% to -19.5%, and in wood (from -36.1% to -51.5%).

The rate accumulated in the last 12 months, in downward trend since last November, reached 4.4% in January.

NORTHEAST

In January, the industrial production of the Northeast increased by 2.0% in relation to the immediately previous month, after decreasing for three consecutive months, a period in which it accumulated loss of 12.7%.  In a downward trend since October 2008, the quarterly moving average decreased by 2.4% in January.

In the comparison with the same month of the previous year, the industry of the Northeast decreased by 10.7%, lowest rate since May 1995 (-14.0%).  This decrease showed the negative rates in 8 among 11 sectors surveyed, with the main impact coming from chemical products (-29.7%) and, in a lower scale, from basic metallurgy (-26.2%) and petroleum refining and alcohol production (-10.5%).  On the other hand, textiles (13.3%), cellulose and paper (2.1%) and mineral extraction (1.2%) brought positive results.

Between Q4, 2008 (-5.2%) and January 2009 (-10.7%), there was deceleration in nine segments.  The most pronounced decrease was in chemical products (from -19.5% to -29.7%), basic metallurgy (from 0.3% to -26.2%) and petroleum refining and alcohol production (from -2.0% to -10.5%).

In the index accumulated in the last 12 months, the trend presents a downward trend since September 2008 (4.4%), reaching 0.1% in January.

CEARÁ
In the comparison with December, the industrial production in Ceará decreased by 0.8% in January.  It was the third consecutive negative rate, accumulating a decrease of 8.3% since November 2008. The quarterly moving average decreased by 2.9% between December and January, third consecutive reduction, accumulating a decrease of 6.6%.

In the comparison with January 2008, there was a decrease of 5.3%, the third consecutive in this comparison. For the formation of the rate, eight among ten activities contributed negatively, especially footwear and leather articles (-21.1%).  It is also worth mentioning the decreases of food products and beverages (-8.9%) and basic metallurgy (-45.2%).  The major positive impact came from textiles (36.9%), due to the major manufacturing of cotton cloth, influenced by a low base of comparison, as a consequence of collective vacations in an important company in January 2008.

The industry of Ceará also lost dynamism from Q4, 2008 (-1.3%) to the first month of 2009 (-5.3%).  This result occurred in eight among ten segments, especially food products and beverages (from 6.5% to -8.9%); chemical products (from 21.9% to -5.3%) and basic metallurgy (from 3.6% to -45.2%).

The rate accumulated in 12 months (2.2%) maintained the downward trend which began in September 2008 (3.8%).

 PERNAMBUCO

In Pernambuco, the industrial production of January was 6.4% higher than in December, after decreasing for three consecutive months, accumulating a decrease of 10.9% in this period.  The quarterly moving average brought the third negative rate (-0.7%), accumulating decrease of 5.5% between October and January.

In relation to January 2008, the industry of Pernambuco decreased by 7.5%, showing the negative performance of 8 among 11 sectors surveyed.  The main negative results came from chemical products (-21.1%), electric machines, equipment and material (-61.9%) and rubber and plastic (-38.1%).  On the other hand, the positive results came from petroleum refining and alcohol production (13.1%), textiles (47.3%) and metal products (5.0%).

The monthly index of January (-7.5%) was lower than the one of Q4, 2008 (-2.5%).  Nine segments reduced the performance, especially rubber and plastic (from -0.5% to -38.1%); electric machines, equipment and material (from -22.0% to -61.9%); and basic metallurgy (from 9.0% to -2.2%).

The index accumulated in the last 12 months, in a downward trend since October of the previous year, reached 2.2% in January, its lowest result since November/ 2005 (2.1%).

BAHIA

In January, the industrial production of Bahia decreased by 0.2% in relation to the immediately previous month, fifth consecutive negative rate, accumulating a decrease of 20.3%.  The quarterly moving average decreased by 5.8% between December and January, recording the fourth consecutive decrease, with an accumulated loss of 13.7% in the period.

Compared to January 2008, there was decrease of 16.8%, fourth consecutive negative rate. For this result contributed negatively five among nine industrial sectors surveyed, especially chemical products (-34.8%), followed by basic metallurgy (-44.3%), petroleum refining and alcohol production (-14.9%) and automotive vehicles (-28.4%).  The main positive impacts came from food products and beverages (10.6%) and extractive industries (9.1%).

The result of January (-16.8%) was considerably lower than the one of Q4, 2008 (-5.4%).  This loss of dynamism was observed in five among nine sectors, especially basic metallurgy (from 3.5% to -44.3%); chemical products (from -21.8% to -34.8%) and petroleum refining and alcohol production (from -2.5% to -14.9%).

In the last 12 months, the index accumulated recorded however an increase of 0.9%, but follows a downward trend since September 2008 (5.1%).

MINAS GERAIS
The industrial sector of MG increased by 2.1% in January compared to December, stopping a sequence of five negative rates, when it accumulated a loss of 31.8%.  The quarterly moving average, however, continues decreasing and registered the fifth negative rate (-10.6%), with loss of 25.5% between August and January.

In the comparison with January of the previous year, the decrease was of 28.9%, third consecutive result, showing the negative influences of the manufacturing industry (-25.7%) and of the extractive industry (-46.6%).  In this last one which brings the second main negative contribution in the overall index, stood out the reduction in the extraction of iron ores, due to the pronounced decrease in the international demand after September 2008.  In the manufacturing industry, among the ten activities with decrease, the highlights were basic metallurgy (-50.0%), automotive vehicles (-29.3%), machines and equipment (-66.7%) and other chemical products (-34.7%).  The most relevant positive result came from food products (8.0%).

The monthly index of January (-28.9%) was considerably below the one recorded on Q4, 2008 (-12.9%). This result occurred in the majority of segments, with the exception of food products and automotive vehicles. The most intense loss of rhythms were recorded by basic metallurgy (from -14.5% to -50.0%); and in the extractive industry (from -24.1% to -46.6%).

The rate accumulated in the last 12 months, while recording decrease of 1.6%, broke a cycle of six years of growth and reached the lowest result since the percentage of -2.6% of October/ 2002.

ESPÍRITO SANTO
In January, the industrial production of Espírito Santo decreased by 4,6% compared to December 2008, fifth consecutive decrease in this type of comparison, accumulating loss of 34.9% since August of the previous year.  With this result, the quarterly moving average decreased by 11.0% in January, maintaining the downward trend which began in June / 2008 (-0.8%) and accumulating loss of 31.2% in this period.

Compared to January of the previous year, the industrial sector of ES fell by 33.2%, the most intense decrease among the 14 areas surveyed and the worst result for the state since the beginning of the survey (January of 1991).  Among the five activities surveyed, only cellulose and paper (5.5%) recorded growth, as a consequence of the increase in the production of cellulose.  On the other hand, the extractive industries (-62.5%) and basic metallurgy (-42.7%) brought the main negative contributions.

From Q3 of the last year (-18.6%) to January of this year (-33.2%), three among the five activities recorded deceleration, with the most intense losses in the extractive sector (from -10.8% to -62.5%) and basic metallurgy (from -37.5% to -42.7%)

The index accumulated in the last 12 months registered expansion of 1.7% in January, confirming the downward trend which began in September (14.1%).

RIO DE JANEIRO

The industry of Rio de Janeiro presented decrease of 1.6% in January compared to December 2008, accumulating in four months of negative rates a loss of 13.4%.  As a consequence, the quarterly moving average , after decreasing 4.1% in December, had a slight acceleration in the rhythm of decrease in January (-4.4%).

In the comparison with the same month of the previous year, there also was decrease (-13.0%), the most significant since May 2005 (-26.9%), standing out the negative contribution of the manufacturing industry (-18.6%), while the extractive sector continued in expansion (10.8%). In the manufacturing industry which registered the fourth consecutive negative result, 11 among 12 segments showed reduction in the production, standing out basic metallurgy (-44.9%), as a consequence of technical stoppages and the granting of collective vacations in a company of the sector.  Following it is worth mentioning, the negative influences of automotive vehicles (-26.8%), beverages (-19.6%), non-metallic minerals (-24.5%), other chemical products (-16.8%) and food products (-17.4%). The pharmaceutical industry (8.9%) recorded the only positive result, mainly due to the low base of comparison, as a consequence mainly of collective vacations in important companies of the sector in January 2008.

The decrease of 13.0% in January was considerably below the index of Q4, 2008 (-3.7%).  The loss of dynamism reached 11 among 13 segments, especially basic metallurgy (from -25.5% to -44.9%), non-metallic minerals (from 10.4% to -24.5%) and automotive vehicles (from -2.6% to -26.8%).

In the index accumulated in the last 12 months, the industry of RJ recorded null growth (0.0%), decelerating compared to December (1.5%) and maintaining a downward trend since September of the previous year (3.5%).  In this comparison, the highlight was the manufacturing industry, in decrease since October 2008 (4.1%), which reached January/ 2009 with a rate of -1.5%. 

SÃO PAULO

In January the industrial production of São Paulo increased by 2.2% compared to December, after three consecutive negative rates, with an accumulated loss of 19.0%.  The quarterly moving average, which decreased since September, fell by 6.0% between December and January, accumulating loss of 13.9% in the last five months.

In relation to January 2008, the decrease was 18.0%, third consecutive result in this comparison, reaching the lowest rate in all the time series.  The decrease was generalized in all the sectors (19 of the 20), standing out automotive vehicles (-33.7%), electronic material and communication equipment (-62.7%) and machines and equipment (-29.7%).  In the first segment, which recorded the third negative rate after 19 months of increase, the concession of collective vacations in several companies contributed for the reduction in the manufacturing of automobiles, while in the other segments stood out the decreases in equipment of mobile telephones and telephony, and in harvesting machines, respectively.  Other transportation equipment (96.6%) was the only segment which increased the production, influenced by the manufacturing of airplanes.

The monthly index of January (-18.0%) was considerably below the one recorded in Q4, 2008 (-4.4%).  This result occurred in 14 segments, and was more pronounced in automotive vehicles (from -13.8% to -33.7%); pharmaceuticals (from 20.4% to -15.9%); machines and equipment (from -8.9% to -29.7%); and electronic material and communication equipment (from -22.6% to -62.7%).  The index accumulated in the last 12 months, in a downward trend since August, decreased from December (5.2%) to January (2.8%), reaching its lowest result since March 2007 (2.7%).  Since September of the previous year, this index lost 6.0 percentage points.

PARANÁ

The industrial production of Paraná increased by 6.8% in January, compared to December, after falling for two months, accumulating loss of 13.7% in this period.  As a consequence, the quarterly moving average (-2.8%) reduced the rhythm of decrease in relation to the previous month (-4.4%).

In relation to January 2008, the decrease of 8.4% was the second consecutive in this comparison, with 10 among 14 surveyed activities in decrease.  Automotive vehicles (-45.8%), food products (-22.6%), machines and equipment (-19.8%) and wood (-33.3%) brought the main negative results.  Edition and printing (125.6%) answered with the major positive influence, explained by the increase of orders of didactic books and printed matter for the beginning of the school year.

The monthly rate in January (-8.4%) was below the index of Q4, 2008 (1.0%), a trend observed in ten activities and more intense in automotive vehicles (from -3.4% to -45.8%); food products (from -3.2% to -22.6%); and petroleum refining and alcohol production (from 13.2% to -9.7%).

The indicator accumulated in the last 12 months, which is decreasing since November 2008, reached 6.4% in January, its lowest result since September 2007 (6.2%).

SANTA CATARINA
In January, the industrial production of Santa Catarina increased by 5.0% compared to December 2008, after three consecutive months of decreases, a period in which it accumulated a loss of 14.2%.  The quarterly moving average, while falling by 2.4%, continued in a downward trend since last October.

In the comparison with the same month of the previous year, the sector decreased by 11.6%, fourth consecutive negative rate and the major decrease since April 2003 (-13.5%).  The profile of decrease was generalized (10 among 11 activities), and automotive vehicles (-36.9%) was the main negative contribution.  Following were machines and equipment (-11.8%); rubber and plastic (-18.3%); and electric machines, equipment and material (-33.1%), as a consequence of collective vacations in a great company of the sector; and food products (-5.2%).  The only positive result was non-metallic minerals (10.7%).

The first result of 2009 (-11.6%) intensified the decrease recorded in Q4, 2008 (-7.4%), a scenario recorded in 7 among 11 segments surveyed, especially automotive vehicles (from -15.8% to -36.9%), food products (from 1.5% to -5.2%), rubber and plastic (from -7.4% to -18.3%) and apparel (from 1.6% to -12.0%).

The rate accumulated in the last 12 months (-1.8%), was below the one obtained in the end of 2008 (-0.6%), remaining in a downward trend since February 2008 (5.7%).

RIO GRANDE DO SUL
The industry of the state increased by 3.6% in January compared to December 2008, after three consecutive decreases, a period in which it accumulated a loss of 22.1%.   The quarterly moving average decreased by 5.4% in January and remains negative since October.

 In the comparison with the same month of the previous year, there was a decrease of 20.3%, major decrease since December 1995 (-21.3%), with a negative performance in the major part (12) of the sectors surveyed.  The main influences came from other chemical products (-53.1%) and automotive vehicles (-34.3%).  It is worth mentioning also the decrease in footwear and leather articles (-26.0%), machines and equipment (-20.9%) and food products (-10.7%).  The only two positive results came from petroleum refining and alcohol production (10.6%) and edition and printing (8.0%).

 The decrease of 20.3% was considerably below the result of 7.7% of Q4, 2008.  For this result contributed 10 among 14 segments, especially other chemical products (from -21.3% to -53.1%), machines and equipment (from 7.5% to -20.9%) and automotive vehicles (from -15.7% to -34.3%).

The index accumulated in the last 12 months (0.1%) was below the one of December (2.4%) and maintained a downward trend since September 2008 (6.1%).

GOIÁS
In January, the industrial production of Goiás decreased by 1.3% compared to the previous month, after increasing by 0.9% between November and December.  The quarterly moving average continued decreasing (-1.6%), fifth consecutive negative rate, accumulating loss of 6.9% in this period.

In relation to January 2008, the decrease was of 7.3%, with three among five activities decreasing.  Stood out among them chemical products (-28.6%) and basic metallurgy (-33.8%).  The performance of extractive industries was positive (7.4%), influenced mainly by the increase in the production of amianthus.

From Q4 of the previous year (1.6%) to January of this year (-7.3%), four activities reduced their rates.  The most intense losses were recorded by food products and beverages (from 5.2% to -1.7%); chemical products (from -14.8% to -28.6%) and basic metallurgy (from -10.5% to -33.8%).

The index accumulated in the last 12 months (7.4%) showed the reduction of the rhythm in relation to the closure of the year /2008 (8.5%) and continues decreasing since last August (9.5%).

NOTE

1 - All the comparisons January 2009/ December 2008 are without seasonal influence.